Friday, June 29, 2012
2012 Draft: The Year We All Die
The NBA draft generates both too much excitement and hope for what it's actually worth and too little for how transformative it can be. You will likely not use your 14th draft pick to replace a starter, but there's always a chance you can land an all-star outside of the top ten. I would, however, caution against valuing your brand new, shiny draft pick too high, because as Hardwood Paroxysm has shown outside of the top pick there's little guarantee of getting an all-star and further down in the draft you'll be lucky if the player can make the rotation.
However, basking in the glow of the NBA draft, it's always great for an anonymous writer to nitpick stuff that's already happened.
Players
-(1) Anthony Davis: I was holding out hope the Hornets don't draft Anthony Davis first for all the laughs it would create, because you know Charlotte wouldn't take him second either. If I were to grade New Orleans for taking Davis, I would give them an N/A. There were no other options, so let's not pretend they were doing something smart here.
Prediction: Defensive player of the year, multiple all-star.
-(2) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I think the Bobcats finally made a good draft pick. Kidd-Gilchrist looks like the next Andre Iguodala, and maybe that doesn't sound particularly great to many fans but Iguodala is a player who has been shown to have a large positive impact on his team without needing a large number of shots. This is the type of player you need if you want to win basketball games, and although the Bobcats were arguably the worst offensive team in the modern NBA going for overall talent rather than need is the smart move. If you go for need you're more likely to pick up a bust, and if you get a bust then you don't really fill out the hole in your roster, do you?
Prediction: fringe all-star, versatile defense leads to all-defensive team.
-(3) Bradley Beal. Within five seconds of hearing his name there's a 90% chance of a comparison of Ray Allen. Unfortunately, Beal shot 34% from the short three-point line in college, 44% from the field, and 77% from the line. I don't think he'll be eclipsing Allen's work ethic either. On a positive note his initials are "BB".
Prediction: hangs at the periphery of the rotation as the latest proclaimed shooter who can't shoot (e.g. Martel Webster.)
-(4) Dion Waiters. Here's a guy who shot up in mock drafts as the day approached, only to leapfrog once again to the fourth pick. It was one of the biggest surprises of the draft, but from what I know of the player I don't think this will be a mistake. He's a bit undersized for a shooting guard since he was 6' 2.5" without shoes, and they won't really need help scoring from their guards with Irving on the team. He can, however, help space the floor, and he could lead to a commentator yelling, "DION WAITS FOR NO MAN."
Prediction: high point of near 20 points per game for one season, good starter.
-(5) Thomas Robinson. I think upperclassmen are scary in general in the NBA draft, but Robinson put up similar numbers in his sophomore year (on a per minute basis) and he rates well in many respects. The top of his head isn't that far from the ground compared to other frontcourt players, but what matters is your wingspan (his is 7' 3.5") and your reach (standing reach of 8' 10"). He'll be fine. He also posted one of the best sprint times in the combine, which is amazing for a power forward.
Prediction: makes a couple all-star team while flirting with 20-10 for a few years.
-(6) Damian Lillard. He's the dreaded combination of a senior and a true mid-major college player. He's the list of mid-major college players drafted in the past decade (excluding ones like Memphis): Paul George, Stephen Curry, Jason Thompson, Patrick O'Bryant, Melvin Ely, and Chris Kaman. The ones who were seniors? Ely and Thompson. That's it. It's rare for a senior to become a very good player. Many turn out to be bench fodder and are out of the league within a few years. Freshmen are the most common players to be taken in the lottery, and in Lillard's freshman year against weaker competition he scored 11 points per game with high turnovers. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think he'll amount to much of anything.
Prediction: bust. He's the next Acie Law.
-(7) Harrison Barnes. It's funny that Barnes and Kidd-Gilchrist were once 2-3 in the mock draft order because they're similar players except that Gilchrist has better stats, is a year younger, and has better defense. There's nothing that stands out about Barnes except for his athleticism, which won't stand out in a league where every team has at least two guys who are freakishly athletic. I've heard lots of people say he'll be a bust, and I think it's a real possibility.
Prediction: next Matt Barnes.
-(8) Terrence Ross. While invested in Bargnani and Jonas coming over next season, I'm not surprised they looked for a smaller player, especially one who can shoot. DraftExpress has his best case player comparison listed as Jason Richardson, and I think that's about right: he could give a team a ton of three's and athletic plays at the rim. With DeMar DeRozan's wayward stroke they're desperate for shooting. He was also born in Portland. You could have taken your hometown boy, Blazers....
Prediction: good role player, never a great three point shooter but enough of one.
-(9) Andre Drummond. Even though there are many players the same height Drummond just seems so much bigger. He's not far from 300 lbs, and it's not because of excess fat. I'd be more impressed by his 3.9 blocks a game if Anthony Davis didn't have 4.7 with less fouls and more steals. He's the type of huge center that teams dream about, and you can see why Portland took Oden over Durant (and why everyone else would have) when you watch him play. Someone that size with that athleticism has to be great. The reality is that his production was disappointing in college, and he failed to hit more than a third of his foul shots. There's a chance he could develop like Dwight Howard did, but it's only a chance. He's also the opposite of Greg Monroe and it lends well to a nice fit for the Pistons' frontcourt.
Prediction: the next DeAndre Jordan.
-(10) Austin Rivers. I liked him when I saw in the McDonald's high school game, but his production has been seriously lacking for a guy picked tenth in a deep draft. You'd also think a coach's son wouldn't be such of a ballhog, but then again he probably has a high view of his own ability because his father is an NBA champion.
Prediction: floats along with the driftwood at the end of the bench.
-(11) Meyers Leonard. I was expecting another white American center (Tyler Zeller) so this was a fun little surprise. Instead of worrying about another senior now the Blazers have a huge athletic center who somehow couldn't produce in college despite competition lacking in size. In the pro game his size won't be a rarity.
Prediction: the next Robert Swift or if I'm being optimistic Chris Mihm. However, as a Blazers' fan I could be rating him too harsh.
-(12) Jeremy Lamb. He shot about the same from three point land as Beal did with better free-throw shooting and a scintillating 60% from the field, but who gets the Ray Allen comparisons? Go figure. His near seven-foot wingspan and athleticism should give him an upper-hand against many NBA players. The league is littered with guys whose arms seem too long for their bodies, and I think Lamb will join them.
Prediction: strong starter and a useful piece for a contending team.
-(13) Kendall Marshall. Anyone who averages near 10 assists in the college game at a high level should be given some sort of award; that's hard to do. He's a big point guard with questionable athleticism and no overwhelming stats besides his assists. If that doesn't whet your appetite consider his strong score in Hollinger's draft rater. I'm not sure how he did that because the rater uses stats. However, he is a deft ball-handler and could find a role as the type of heady point guard coaches love.
Prediction: back-up point guard.
-(14) John Henson. Henson posted the highest standing reach out of any 2012 draft pick at the combine with 9' 4". It's higher than the marks from guys like Dwight Howard and Andrew Bogut. With his slight frame and nimble feet he can play the power forward slot, and under the right defense he could be a real terror. He is an older draft pick, but he's posted strong stats since his freshman year.
Prediction: strong defensive player, starter.
Notes
-The crowd booed David Stern more than in other years, but he's a better GM than people give him credit for. Look at how well the league is doing compared to when he took it over in 198?.
-San Antonio is known for smart draft picks, but Houston has quietly become the best or nearly the best drafting team. They haven't had any top draft picks recently for something more higher stakes, but they're great at finding value later on in the draft. From Carl Landry to Chase Budinger to Chandler Parsons it's hard to bet against him. Royce White, for instance, looks like one of the steals of this draft.
-The case against Jared Sullinger is more complicated than it appears. By conventional analysis of the box score he will end up as one of the best values. He has shown he can produce at a high level in college that few besides Anthony Davis can match. Basketball is not a track meet; it's about putting an orange ball in an orange hoop and Sullinger is great at that. His injury scare is worrisome, but most guys in the late teens in the draft won't be more than bench players. Even if you get only three years out of Sullinger it's worth more than ten out of someone who can't play. Think about the Roy-Foye trade. Who won that? Foye is still playing, but the few short years from Roy are much more valuable than Foye's entire (extrapolated) career. However, Sullinger's defense is a legitimate concern, and he could be the next Carlos Boozer: good stats but ultimately negates his production with poor defense.
-The Bulls are lucky they draft Teague. With their superstar point guard out of commission with a serious injury and a bad draft pick they would need a steal. I think Teague will be one because younger siblings of other basketball players are usually better than their older ones. This is because they get to develop at an earlier age playing against better competition as they grow up.
-This is the Anthony Davis draft, and probably a couple other players will reach the all-star game but that's how we'll remember it. Davis will be battling Nerlens Noel (he's going into college next year) for the defensive player of the year trophy for years to come.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
2012 Finals: Thunder v Heat
A battle of two superpowers that could dominate the landscape over the next few years. The Thunder's core of their four best players are only 22.5 years-old on average, while the Heat players are just barely on the older side of the prime age for NBA players. The Heat want to be the next dynasty, but the Thunder are in an arguably better position, especially with their superior front office. The best match-up, however, is Durant versus LeBron, as the finals have rarely seen a duel between guys who went 1-2 on the MVP ballot who play the same position. Jordan-Drexler in '92 was the last time, and Wilt-Thurmond in '67 was the only other instance I could find. Drexler was slated to be Jordan's rival, but after the '92 thrashing Jordan let everyone know he had no peers. Durant-LeBron, given the importance of LeBron winning his first title and Durant's role in trying to usurp him as the best player, and how they're both poised to challenge the all-time scoring record, could end up being one of the greatest finals match-ups in history.
On the surface the match-up would appear to heavily favor the Thunder, who got through dispatching last year's champions the Mavericks, the Lakers and their embarrassment of titles since they drafted Kobe, and top-seeded Spurs who had been decimating the competition. The Heat, meanwhile, needed seven games to oust the injury-riddled and old Celtics and had similar problems against the Celtics. Look more closely, however, and the advantages pile up for the Heat.
The most obvious advantage is that Bosh is finally healthy. Some people may want to discredit the Heat for making it to the finals after Howard, Rose, and others went down with injuries, but they suffered through an injury to their all-star power forward. On a team with no depth, especially in the frontcourt, this was troublesome against the Pacers and Hibbert and the Celtics and Garnett. His box score stats may have declined, but his impact on the court is undeniable: the Heat are simply light-years better when he plays if you look at the record of their games when he's on the court, simple +/-, lineup combinations, and adjusted +/-. He's a tall power forward with long arms, a good jump shot, an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls, and good defense thanks for his quick feet and size.
Depth may have plagued the Heat at times this year, but when their key players are healthy they're hard to stop. In the playoffs the elite players log more minutes and less are given to the driftwood found at the end of the bench. That means more LeBron and Wade and less Juwan Howard and James Jones. I know this is mentioned a lot by people like John Hollinger, but it's important enough that I have to reiterate its power. Many of the stat-inclined build models that use regular season numbers without any adjustment for greater playing time of the team's stars. Tiny differences can mean the difference between a champion and a team coming away with a handful of nothing.
Weaknesses of each respective team also align in Miami's favor. Miami has problems against big centers as Joel Anthony is quick on his feet but a little small and no one off the bench is any bigger. Having Bosh back in the rotation will help, but he's not the answer to huge centers like Andrew Bynum. Oklahoma City, of course, has no such threat, and even with an amazing offense have few threats in their frontcourt other than an Ibaka 15-footer (feel the earth tremble out of fear from a midrange jumper) Perkins, for instance, is a great counter against low-post brutes, but he's of little use against the Heat. Of course, he'll remain in the starting lineup and rack up major minutes, and Miami is fine with that.
The Thunder have a devastating offense, but their weakness is turnovers. Against a team that can force turnovers and wreck havoc in transition this is a problem. Westbrook gets flak for his tendency to ballhog, but he also rightfully is criticized for his turnovers. Durant has pushed himself into the upper-crust of NBA players, but passing and controlling turnovers is nearly the only area on offense he hasn't conquered. The Thunder were surprisingly last in the league in turnovers, yet they were ranked second in offense. (Spurs were third in turnovers and led the league in offensive efficiency, so go figure.) Using an isolation-heavy attack, they can score on almost anyone one-on-one but can struggle keeping the ball on their side of the court. The Heat were tied for first in turnovers forced per game during the regular season at 15.1, and with Wade and James running in transition it could lead to a lot of easy baskets
But are the Heat better? Is it even close? The Thunder finished 49-17, one better than Miami's 48-18. Point differential was also nearly a wash: +7.1 for OKC and +7.2 for MIA. The Thunder were again second in the league in offensive efficiency at 107.1, but ninth in defense at 100.0 (points allowed per 100 possessions, roughly a whole game.) Miami was sixth in offense with 104.3, but have a superior defense clocking in at fourth with 97.1. However, given the Thunder's home-court advantage, one would think it'd be a close series with the Thunder barely squeaking by, ignoring the aforementioned advantages Miami has. Namely, there is one advantage I'd like to dig into: a top-heavy rotation versus a superior bench. Miami has the better big three, but after that it's all Oklahoma City
Looking closer into the numbers, Miami's advantages are definitely at the top three. For +/- and the adjusted varieties, it's a significant difference. In measuring the effect of that difference I calculated an expected point differential based on how many minutes you get from each player and looking at a couple different lineup scenarios. In each one, and this counts the regularized +/- and basketballvalue's one and two year flavors, Miami had a sizable lead, and this was even with minimizing Derek Fisher's minutes as much as possible.
Here's one example: Miami +2.24, OKC +1.79. Since that's the regularized version, the numbers skew closer to 0 than they would in reality. The minutes I used are close to what players have logged in the playoffs so far with more given to the best players on each side. LeBron and Durant at 43 minutes each, for examples, and I have Bosh at a conservative 33 minutes per game, but that's a complete stab in the dark. I will caution that playing around with numbers in that fashion can lead to results that are decided before you punch in the last numbers, but from an objective standpoint it's hard to argue that the series isn't at the very least even.
As a last point, throw out the numbers and all that damned logic and look at what sports writers look at: the story. LeBron is looking for redemption after a failure in Cleveland from his Herculean efforts, and last year after he teamed up with all-stars as a sort of mercenary group of young stars looking for titles. After winning a third MVP trophy, he's at the prime age for an NBA player at 27 and the history books make so much more sense if he won it this year, so we wouldn't have to add footnotes to his legacy like, "First guy to win three MVPs without a title in the third MVP year.) Having such a dominant player without a title is strange in a star-driven, uneven league where a handful of stars own most of the titles. The Thunder are America's team of likable talent, but the Heat are, as any sports writer would say, grizzled veterans who have everything to lose.
Besides, doesn't Derek Fisher have enough rings?
Prediction: Heat in seven games.
Random prediction: Durant and LeBron combine to average 80-22 in the first three games.
On the surface the match-up would appear to heavily favor the Thunder, who got through dispatching last year's champions the Mavericks, the Lakers and their embarrassment of titles since they drafted Kobe, and top-seeded Spurs who had been decimating the competition. The Heat, meanwhile, needed seven games to oust the injury-riddled and old Celtics and had similar problems against the Celtics. Look more closely, however, and the advantages pile up for the Heat.
The most obvious advantage is that Bosh is finally healthy. Some people may want to discredit the Heat for making it to the finals after Howard, Rose, and others went down with injuries, but they suffered through an injury to their all-star power forward. On a team with no depth, especially in the frontcourt, this was troublesome against the Pacers and Hibbert and the Celtics and Garnett. His box score stats may have declined, but his impact on the court is undeniable: the Heat are simply light-years better when he plays if you look at the record of their games when he's on the court, simple +/-, lineup combinations, and adjusted +/-. He's a tall power forward with long arms, a good jump shot, an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls, and good defense thanks for his quick feet and size.
Depth may have plagued the Heat at times this year, but when their key players are healthy they're hard to stop. In the playoffs the elite players log more minutes and less are given to the driftwood found at the end of the bench. That means more LeBron and Wade and less Juwan Howard and James Jones. I know this is mentioned a lot by people like John Hollinger, but it's important enough that I have to reiterate its power. Many of the stat-inclined build models that use regular season numbers without any adjustment for greater playing time of the team's stars. Tiny differences can mean the difference between a champion and a team coming away with a handful of nothing.
Weaknesses of each respective team also align in Miami's favor. Miami has problems against big centers as Joel Anthony is quick on his feet but a little small and no one off the bench is any bigger. Having Bosh back in the rotation will help, but he's not the answer to huge centers like Andrew Bynum. Oklahoma City, of course, has no such threat, and even with an amazing offense have few threats in their frontcourt other than an Ibaka 15-footer (feel the earth tremble out of fear from a midrange jumper) Perkins, for instance, is a great counter against low-post brutes, but he's of little use against the Heat. Of course, he'll remain in the starting lineup and rack up major minutes, and Miami is fine with that.
The Thunder have a devastating offense, but their weakness is turnovers. Against a team that can force turnovers and wreck havoc in transition this is a problem. Westbrook gets flak for his tendency to ballhog, but he also rightfully is criticized for his turnovers. Durant has pushed himself into the upper-crust of NBA players, but passing and controlling turnovers is nearly the only area on offense he hasn't conquered. The Thunder were surprisingly last in the league in turnovers, yet they were ranked second in offense. (Spurs were third in turnovers and led the league in offensive efficiency, so go figure.) Using an isolation-heavy attack, they can score on almost anyone one-on-one but can struggle keeping the ball on their side of the court. The Heat were tied for first in turnovers forced per game during the regular season at 15.1, and with Wade and James running in transition it could lead to a lot of easy baskets
But are the Heat better? Is it even close? The Thunder finished 49-17, one better than Miami's 48-18. Point differential was also nearly a wash: +7.1 for OKC and +7.2 for MIA. The Thunder were again second in the league in offensive efficiency at 107.1, but ninth in defense at 100.0 (points allowed per 100 possessions, roughly a whole game.) Miami was sixth in offense with 104.3, but have a superior defense clocking in at fourth with 97.1. However, given the Thunder's home-court advantage, one would think it'd be a close series with the Thunder barely squeaking by, ignoring the aforementioned advantages Miami has. Namely, there is one advantage I'd like to dig into: a top-heavy rotation versus a superior bench. Miami has the better big three, but after that it's all Oklahoma City
Looking closer into the numbers, Miami's advantages are definitely at the top three. For +/- and the adjusted varieties, it's a significant difference. In measuring the effect of that difference I calculated an expected point differential based on how many minutes you get from each player and looking at a couple different lineup scenarios. In each one, and this counts the regularized +/- and basketballvalue's one and two year flavors, Miami had a sizable lead, and this was even with minimizing Derek Fisher's minutes as much as possible.
Here's one example: Miami +2.24, OKC +1.79. Since that's the regularized version, the numbers skew closer to 0 than they would in reality. The minutes I used are close to what players have logged in the playoffs so far with more given to the best players on each side. LeBron and Durant at 43 minutes each, for examples, and I have Bosh at a conservative 33 minutes per game, but that's a complete stab in the dark. I will caution that playing around with numbers in that fashion can lead to results that are decided before you punch in the last numbers, but from an objective standpoint it's hard to argue that the series isn't at the very least even.
As a last point, throw out the numbers and all that damned logic and look at what sports writers look at: the story. LeBron is looking for redemption after a failure in Cleveland from his Herculean efforts, and last year after he teamed up with all-stars as a sort of mercenary group of young stars looking for titles. After winning a third MVP trophy, he's at the prime age for an NBA player at 27 and the history books make so much more sense if he won it this year, so we wouldn't have to add footnotes to his legacy like, "First guy to win three MVPs without a title in the third MVP year.) Having such a dominant player without a title is strange in a star-driven, uneven league where a handful of stars own most of the titles. The Thunder are America's team of likable talent, but the Heat are, as any sports writer would say, grizzled veterans who have everything to lose.
Besides, doesn't Derek Fisher have enough rings?
Prediction: Heat in seven games.
Random prediction: Durant and LeBron combine to average 80-22 in the first three games.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Birth Country of NBA Players for 2012
Note: I meant to post this last week, but my internet went down for a few days.
Introduction
Basketball has spread to nearly everything corner of the globe, and international stars feature heavily in the league from Nowitzki to Ginobili to Rubio. Playing styles have also permeated into the game with the Euro step now used by many American stars. Whenever the topic of international players comes up, an inevitable question is which country has the most. Similarly to how I constructed the studies on the racial/ethnic compositions of NBA teams, I looked at which countries had the most minutes played by NBA players who were born in the respective country.
Methodology
Statistics were from the 2011-12 regular season, while the birth country of each player was found online, which is surprisingly easy thanks to birth city and country being part of the vital stats that are always listed. While some players only lived in their birth country for as little as a year, I still included them for that particular country because I needed one standard way to label everyone and it would be too much work researching where everyone lived as a child and for how long. Guys born on a military base were listed with the home country of their parents (e.g. Boozer in Germany.) While some "countries" are not officially such, I thought it would be more informative to show the spread of the game by including such regions as the US Virgin Islands and French Guinea, which is one of several overseas departments of France that would have made their total even more impressive.
Populations were gathered from the CIA World Factbook online for an estimated 2012 July population except for the overseas departments of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, and Martinque, which used worldstat.info for the latest population estimates. I realize it's not a reputable source like the CIA World Factbook is, but their populations are so low the results would be wonky anyway. As a last note, when dividing the countries into continents Turkey was treated as half European, half Asian, and the Caribbean Islands along with Central America were given to North America.
Results
The main output of the study was a large global map color-coded based on how many minutes players from that country had. Although the US dwarfs the competition capturing over 82% of the total player minutes during the regular season, 48 different countries and territories were represented. Besides the US totaling an absurd 394,626 minutes out of 479,061 possible, the largest sum was Spain with 8713, but France also has a legitimate claim if you include their overseas departments like the 1176 minutes from French Guinea. (Spain's total is still only 1.8% of the total minutes played in the NBA.) Eastern Europe used to have the world's highest concentration of basketball talent overseas, but even Russia had a pitiful sum (Kirilenko played for an international team because of the lockout) and now the western Europe triumvirate of France, Spain, and Italy dominate the NBA.
The below picture shows the minutes of each country in the world with a color from white meaning zero minutes to red to black, which is reserved for the greatest contributor Spain. For a better look at the picture I'd recommend clicking on it to increase the size. I cropped much of the Pacific Ocean to fit the map, so Hawaiians please forgive me. The Olympics are starting soon, and the biggest contenders for the medals are highlighted -- the US had to be given a different color so it didn't skew the results, Spain is the greatest challenger to the US, France sports lots of talent but underwhelms in competitions, Argentina is aging but still effective, Brazil can't be ignored, Turkey surprisingly has the fourth highest minutes in the world, and Italy could sneak by someone. Greece has been one of the biggest threats for years, but their players like to stay in Europe. I also cropped Antarctica off the map as they sadly had no representatives.
There are some surprises, but this is from only one season. I suspect looking at the past, say, five seasons would be more representative of the league because you'd get more healthy seasons from guys like Bogut, Ginobili and even Yao, the lockout's effect on international players would be covered by four other seasons, and even more countries would be included. As it stands, this a snapshot of the league as it is now with players from Tanzania, Venezuela, Senegal, and the Czech Republic.
Looking at this from a continent perspective, North America is of course the leader but even without the US the minutes would be a healthy 12,498. Europe to no one's surprise is the leader ignoring the US, but I expected a stronger showing from South America given Brazil and Argentina's influence. Australia is low on the list, but if Bogut is healthy and Irving plays more minutes along with others like Patty Mills they could actually challenge Asia, who if it weren't for Turkey would have a pitiful total.
Finally, is it fair to compare the minutes that, say, Brazil has compared to Serbia? Brazil has one of the biggest populations in the world, and countries like Serbia or Lithuania don't even have the same number of people as many of Brazil's cities have. Accordingly, I used the 2012 population's from the CIA World Factbook to calculate the number of minutes per one million residents as an adjustment. The full results are in the appendix, and what's immediately obvious is that low population countries and territories like the US Virgin Islands are at a significant advantage. What's surprising, however, is that the US is ranked fifth despite having the third highest population in the world. Of course it's an American league, but that's still impressive.
Speaking of impressive, there are 22,177 minutes per one million residents in the US Virgin islands thanks to Duncan and Raja Bell. That's an immense lead over French Guiana at 4282 minutes. Slovenia outranked the US and was first among countries with at least a million residents (Udrih and Dragic are their representatives.) For larger countries, Serbia led with 342 followed closely by Switzerland at 339 for those over 5 million. For even larger countries Spain has a healthy 185 minutes per million residents. At the bottom of the list are mainly huge countries like China and Russia or ones with an insignificant amount of minutes like the Ukraine (17 minutes from Fesenko.) Mexico is the lowest ranked country with over 1000 minutes, but Brazil is interestingly also near the bottom. They have a ton of talented NBA players from Splitter to Nene to Barbosa, but the largest population and decrease in minutes due to events like Nene's injuries kept them down. Adjusting for population lets you compare the output of Sweden and France, which are similar on a per resident basis. You wouldn't think Sweden is a major force in the league, but they have a smaller population than most realize and Jonas Jerebko was skilled enough to earn major playing time. It's also the only way Venezuela will ever be ranked above Argentina in basketball.
Conclusion
The games are held in the US and one Canadian city, but it's an international game now. Ignoring the birth place of the players is ignoring the incredible journeys of guys like Ibaka and Nash. Countries like France and Spain produce players at an impressive rate, but Switzerland and Turkey are also two surprising basketball factories. Until Duncan retires, the US Virgin Islands will likely hold the title of highest NBA minutes per resident unless Svalbard suddenly produces an all-star. Small central and eastern European countries like Slovenia and Serbia punch above their weight class with a healthy output, which has been true since the Soviet Union. Despite the spread of the game, the US still dominates its own league with over 82% of the total minutes played and ranked fifth on a per resident basis, remarkable for such a large country. However, the NBA is now firmly defined as an international game, and forgetting the contributions of the non-Americans is forgetting a vital aspect that makes the game special.
Appendix
Introduction
Basketball has spread to nearly everything corner of the globe, and international stars feature heavily in the league from Nowitzki to Ginobili to Rubio. Playing styles have also permeated into the game with the Euro step now used by many American stars. Whenever the topic of international players comes up, an inevitable question is which country has the most. Similarly to how I constructed the studies on the racial/ethnic compositions of NBA teams, I looked at which countries had the most minutes played by NBA players who were born in the respective country.
Methodology
Statistics were from the 2011-12 regular season, while the birth country of each player was found online, which is surprisingly easy thanks to birth city and country being part of the vital stats that are always listed. While some players only lived in their birth country for as little as a year, I still included them for that particular country because I needed one standard way to label everyone and it would be too much work researching where everyone lived as a child and for how long. Guys born on a military base were listed with the home country of their parents (e.g. Boozer in Germany.) While some "countries" are not officially such, I thought it would be more informative to show the spread of the game by including such regions as the US Virgin Islands and French Guinea, which is one of several overseas departments of France that would have made their total even more impressive.
Populations were gathered from the CIA World Factbook online for an estimated 2012 July population except for the overseas departments of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, and Martinque, which used worldstat.info for the latest population estimates. I realize it's not a reputable source like the CIA World Factbook is, but their populations are so low the results would be wonky anyway. As a last note, when dividing the countries into continents Turkey was treated as half European, half Asian, and the Caribbean Islands along with Central America were given to North America.
Results
The main output of the study was a large global map color-coded based on how many minutes players from that country had. Although the US dwarfs the competition capturing over 82% of the total player minutes during the regular season, 48 different countries and territories were represented. Besides the US totaling an absurd 394,626 minutes out of 479,061 possible, the largest sum was Spain with 8713, but France also has a legitimate claim if you include their overseas departments like the 1176 minutes from French Guinea. (Spain's total is still only 1.8% of the total minutes played in the NBA.) Eastern Europe used to have the world's highest concentration of basketball talent overseas, but even Russia had a pitiful sum (Kirilenko played for an international team because of the lockout) and now the western Europe triumvirate of France, Spain, and Italy dominate the NBA.
The below picture shows the minutes of each country in the world with a color from white meaning zero minutes to red to black, which is reserved for the greatest contributor Spain. For a better look at the picture I'd recommend clicking on it to increase the size. I cropped much of the Pacific Ocean to fit the map, so Hawaiians please forgive me. The Olympics are starting soon, and the biggest contenders for the medals are highlighted -- the US had to be given a different color so it didn't skew the results, Spain is the greatest challenger to the US, France sports lots of talent but underwhelms in competitions, Argentina is aging but still effective, Brazil can't be ignored, Turkey surprisingly has the fourth highest minutes in the world, and Italy could sneak by someone. Greece has been one of the biggest threats for years, but their players like to stay in Europe. I also cropped Antarctica off the map as they sadly had no representatives.
There are some surprises, but this is from only one season. I suspect looking at the past, say, five seasons would be more representative of the league because you'd get more healthy seasons from guys like Bogut, Ginobili and even Yao, the lockout's effect on international players would be covered by four other seasons, and even more countries would be included. As it stands, this a snapshot of the league as it is now with players from Tanzania, Venezuela, Senegal, and the Czech Republic.
Looking at this from a continent perspective, North America is of course the leader but even without the US the minutes would be a healthy 12,498. Europe to no one's surprise is the leader ignoring the US, but I expected a stronger showing from South America given Brazil and Argentina's influence. Australia is low on the list, but if Bogut is healthy and Irving plays more minutes along with others like Patty Mills they could actually challenge Asia, who if it weren't for Turkey would have a pitiful total.
|
Country
|
North America
|
South America
|
Europe
|
Asia
|
Africa
|
Australia
|
|
Minutes
|
407,124
|
9665
|
44,655
|
6397
|
9037
|
2183
|
Finally, is it fair to compare the minutes that, say, Brazil has compared to Serbia? Brazil has one of the biggest populations in the world, and countries like Serbia or Lithuania don't even have the same number of people as many of Brazil's cities have. Accordingly, I used the 2012 population's from the CIA World Factbook to calculate the number of minutes per one million residents as an adjustment. The full results are in the appendix, and what's immediately obvious is that low population countries and territories like the US Virgin Islands are at a significant advantage. What's surprising, however, is that the US is ranked fifth despite having the third highest population in the world. Of course it's an American league, but that's still impressive.
Speaking of impressive, there are 22,177 minutes per one million residents in the US Virgin islands thanks to Duncan and Raja Bell. That's an immense lead over French Guiana at 4282 minutes. Slovenia outranked the US and was first among countries with at least a million residents (Udrih and Dragic are their representatives.) For larger countries, Serbia led with 342 followed closely by Switzerland at 339 for those over 5 million. For even larger countries Spain has a healthy 185 minutes per million residents. At the bottom of the list are mainly huge countries like China and Russia or ones with an insignificant amount of minutes like the Ukraine (17 minutes from Fesenko.) Mexico is the lowest ranked country with over 1000 minutes, but Brazil is interestingly also near the bottom. They have a ton of talented NBA players from Splitter to Nene to Barbosa, but the largest population and decrease in minutes due to events like Nene's injuries kept them down. Adjusting for population lets you compare the output of Sweden and France, which are similar on a per resident basis. You wouldn't think Sweden is a major force in the league, but they have a smaller population than most realize and Jonas Jerebko was skilled enough to earn major playing time. It's also the only way Venezuela will ever be ranked above Argentina in basketball.
Conclusion
The games are held in the US and one Canadian city, but it's an international game now. Ignoring the birth place of the players is ignoring the incredible journeys of guys like Ibaka and Nash. Countries like France and Spain produce players at an impressive rate, but Switzerland and Turkey are also two surprising basketball factories. Until Duncan retires, the US Virgin Islands will likely hold the title of highest NBA minutes per resident unless Svalbard suddenly produces an all-star. Small central and eastern European countries like Slovenia and Serbia punch above their weight class with a healthy output, which has been true since the Soviet Union. Despite the spread of the game, the US still dominates its own league with over 82% of the total minutes played and ranked fifth on a per resident basis, remarkable for such a large country. However, the NBA is now firmly defined as an international game, and forgetting the contributions of the non-Americans is forgetting a vital aspect that makes the game special.
Appendix
|
Rank
|
Country
|
Population
|
Minutes
|
Minutes/one million residents
|
|
1
|
US Virgin Islands
|
109,574
|
2430
|
22176.79
|
|
2
|
French Guiana
|
274,652
|
1176
|
4281.78
|
|
3
|
Guadeloupe
|
503,274
|
921
|
1830.02
|
|
4
|
Slovenia
|
1,996,617
|
2832
|
1418.40
|
|
5
|
United States of America
|
313,847,465
|
394626
|
1257.38
|
|
6
|
Montenegro
|
657,394
|
527
|
801.65
|
|
7
|
Martinique
|
498,151
|
279
|
560.07
|
|
8
|
People's Republic of the Congo
|
4,366,266
|
1792
|
410.42
|
|
9
|
Georgia
|
4,570,934
|
1640
|
358.79
|
|
10
|
Serbia
|
7,276,604
|
2491
|
342.33
|
|
11
|
Switzerland
|
7,655,628
|
2600
|
339.62
|
|
12
|
Latvia
|
2,191,580
|
739
|
337.20
|
|
13
|
Lithuania
|
3,525,761
|
1057
|
299.79
|
|
14
|
Puerto Rico
|
3,998,905
|
1032
|
258.07
|
|
15
|
Panama
|
3,510,045
|
713
|
203.13
|
|
16
|
South Sudan
|
10,625,176
|
2129
|
200.37
|
|
17
|
Spain
|
47,042,984
|
8713
|
185.21
|
|
18
|
Israel
|
7,590,758
|
1341
|
176.66
|
|
19
|
Sweden
|
9,103,788
|
1468
|
161.25
|
|
20
|
Haiti
|
9,801,664
|
1446
|
147.53
|
|
21
|
France
|
62,814,233
|
8348
|
132.90
|
|
22
|
Czech Republic
|
10,177,300
|
1078
|
105.92
|
|
23
|
Canada
|
34,300,083
|
3413
|
99.50
|
|
24
|
Australia
|
22,015,576
|
2183
|
99.16
|
|
25
|
Italy
|
61,261,254
|
4850
|
79.17
|
|
26
|
Dominican Republic
|
10,088,598
|
798
|
79.10
|
|
27
|
Greece
|
10,767,827
|
792
|
73.55
|
|
28
|
Belgium
|
10,438,353
|
759
|
72.71
|
|
29
|
Turkey
|
79,749,461
|
5066
|
63.52
|
|
30
|
Venezuela
|
28,047,938
|
1706
|
60.82
|
|
31
|
Argentina
|
42,192,494
|
2385
|
56.53
|
|
32
|
Poland
|
38,415,284
|
2114
|
55.03
|
|
33
|
Cameroon
|
20,129,878
|
1009
|
50.12
|
|
34
|
South Africa
|
48,810,427
|
1961
|
40.18
|
|
35
|
Jamaica
|
2,889,187
|
108
|
37.38
|
|
36
|
Germany
|
81,305,856
|
2079
|
25.57
|
|
37
|
Senegal
|
12,969,606
|
328
|
25.29
|
|
38
|
United Kingdom
|
63,047,162
|
1416
|
22.46
|
|
39
|
Brazil
|
205,716,890
|
4398
|
21.38
|
|
40
|
Democratic Rep. of the Congo
|
73,599,190
|
1557
|
21.16
|
|
41
|
Mexico
|
114,975,406
|
1358
|
11.81
|
|
42
|
Russia
|
138,082,178
|
687
|
4.98
|
|
43
|
Tanzania
|
43,601,796
|
139
|
3.19
|
|
44
|
Iran
|
78,868,711
|
206
|
2.61
|
|
45
|
Netherlands
|
16,730,632
|
29
|
1.73
|
|
46
|
Nigeria
|
170,123,740
|
122
|
0.72
|
|
47
|
Ukraine
|
44,854,065
|
17
|
0.38
|
|
48
|
China
|
1,343,239,923
|
203
|
0.15
|
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