Again, Rose's primary value is his scoring, but in his MVP year he averaged an impressive but not earth-shattering 25 a game, which was eclipsed by several people including LeBron and Carmelo. Since Rose averaged 25 with a pleasant but not great TS% of 55, at the very most you could say compared to LeBron they're tied for value attached to scoring, and that's extremely generous. The only real advantage Rose has is that he's a point guard, but he averaged 7.7 assists, which is something that even as a small forward LeBron can do. In fact, that year he averaged 7 assists. I waved off LeBron's superior shooting efficiency, and maybe you could argue Rose has more of a burden, but LeBron scored more points at better efficiency and with the same amount of assists with a paltry staff in Cleveland. It's hard to argue Rose is better offensively in objective terms. Add in defense, where LeBron is a terror thanks to his versatility in strength, size and speed, and there's no contest. That's the logical end to their comparisons. LeBron is the benchmark for all MVPs, and as long as he's healthy you have to prove you're more valuable. The only thing Rose had was his team's better win-loss record, which is a team result, not an individual one ... except that Miami had a better point differential, which is a better indication of a team's strength. So the entire edifice, the only objective MVP criterion for Rose's status as MVP, is destroyed -- and Miami got the last laugh by beating them in the playoffs with LeBron guarding Rose for long strenghts, and then the next year with a title.
Carmelo has to clear the same hurdle. Carmelo derives nearly all of his value from scoring with a hidden elite skill in rebounding, which LeBron eclipses anyway. And Carmelo's increased defensive value and focus? It'd be bizarre to call it nothing less than significantly worse than LeBron's. However, this is the first year since perhaps their rookie year since Carmelo's scoring is arguably superior. King James is actually being outscored, and although his shooting efficiency is still superior the gap is small.
The point here is to prove that with scoring Carmelo and LeBron are at least tied, because once taking into account the other factors of the game Carmelo has no chance at being more valuable. Let's skip forward to tables 2 and 3 and analyze how Carmelo is scoring so well and how it compares with James.
Table 1: Overall statistics comparison
LeBron James
|
Carmelo Anthony
|
||||||||||||||
Year
|
Pts / game
|
Pts/36 mins
|
Asts
|
Rebs
|
Reb %
|
PER
|
WS
|
Year
|
Pts / game
|
Pts/36 mins
|
Asts
|
Rebs
|
Reb %
|
PER
|
WS
|
2007
|
27.3
|
24.1
|
6
|
6.7
|
9.6
|
24.5
|
13.7
|
2007
|
28.9
|
27.2
|
3.8
|
6
|
8.9
|
22.1
|
7.3
|
2008
|
30
|
26.8
|
7.2
|
7.9
|
11.1
|
29.1
|
15.2
|
2008
|
25.7
|
25.4
|
3.4
|
7.4
|
11
|
21.1
|
8.2
|
2009
|
28.4
|
27.2
|
7.2
|
7.6
|
11.9
|
31.7
|
20.3
|
2009
|
22.8
|
23.8
|
3.4
|
6.8
|
11.5
|
19
|
5
|
2010
|
29.7
|
27.4
|
8.6
|
7.3
|
11.1
|
31.1
|
18.5
|
2010
|
28.2
|
26.6
|
3.2
|
6.6
|
9.9
|
22.2
|
7.9
|
2011
|
26.7
|
24.8
|
7
|
7.5
|
11.4
|
27.3
|
15.6
|
11:DEN
|
25.2
|
25.5
|
2.8
|
7.6
|
12.4
|
21.2
|
4.7
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
11:NYK
|
26.3
|
26.2
|
3
|
6.7
|
10.6
|
22.8
|
3.2
|
2012
|
27.1
|
26
|
6.2
|
7.9
|
12.6
|
30.7
|
14.5
|
2012
|
22.6
|
23.9
|
3.6
|
6.3
|
10.6
|
21.1
|
6.2
|
2013
|
25.9
|
24.6
|
6.9
|
8.5
|
13.5
|
29.8
|
6.1
|
2013
|
28.5
|
28.2
|
1.9
|
6.2
|
9.9
|
25.8
|
3.7
|
Carmelo is shooting much more often with a usage % of 34, meaning he's using over one-third of his team's plays when he's on the court. Throughout the last few years, the two have basically been even with LeBron usually possessing the significantly better TS%. However, Carmelo is having a career year in usage and efficiency, which is quite rare. In fact, a closer look at how Carmelo is shooting at various spots on the floor reveals the rarity might be brief: he also has career highs in outside shooting percentages. He's taking 6 three's a game, for example, and hitting them at an elite rate of 43.4. LeBron is also having a career year in three-point percentage, but he relies on them less and there's something weird about his long-range 2-pointers. Knick fans may think I'm nitpicking with labeling Carmelo's outside shooting as a fluke, but there's a short list of people who have taken at least 6 three's a game with a percentage of 42 or higher, and looking at the list they're snipers known for three-point shooting: does Carmelo belong there? If he had been shooting at a modest percentage of 35, which is still above his career percentage, he drops 1.5 points per game and his TS% down to 58.
Table 2: LeBron James' shooting statistics
Year
|
Usage %
|
TS%
|
Rim FGA
|
Rim FG%
|
3-9 ft. FGA
|
3-9 ft. FG%
|
10-15 ft FGA
|
10-15 ft FG%
|
16-23 FGA
|
16-23 FG%
|
3PT FGA
|
3PT%
|
2007
|
31
|
55.2
|
6.7
|
72
|
2.2
|
44
|
1.9
|
36
|
5.6
|
34
|
3.5
|
31.9
|
2008
|
33.5
|
56.8
|
8
|
71
|
1.8
|
44
|
1.5
|
32
|
5.6
|
37
|
4.3
|
31.5
|
2009
|
33.8
|
59.1
|
7
|
72
|
1.8
|
49
|
1.4
|
25
|
5.9
|
40
|
4.5
|
34.4
|
2010
|
33.5
|
60.4
|
6.9
|
73.3
|
1.5
|
53.5
|
1.2
|
32.2
|
5.6
|
40
|
4.7
|
33.3
|
2011
|
31.5
|
59.4
|
6.1
|
72.1
|
2.4
|
44.4
|
1.6
|
44.7
|
5.5
|
45
|
3.3
|
33
|
2012
|
32
|
60.5
|
7.1
|
75.4
|
2.2
|
47.3
|
2.3
|
47
|
6
|
39
|
2.3
|
36.2
|
2013
|
29.9
|
61.2
|
7.3
|
77.2
|
1.8
|
55.6
|
1.5
|
41.4
|
4.5
|
40
|
3.1
|
43.3
|
Year
|
Usage %
|
TS%
|
Rim FGA
|
Rim FG%
|
3-9 ft. FGA
|
3-9 ft. FG%
|
10-15 ft FGA
|
10-15 ft FG%
|
16-23 FGA
|
16-23 FG%
|
3PT FGA
|
3PT%
|
2007
|
33.4
|
55.2
|
9.9
|
63
|
1.7
|
43
|
1.7
|
29
|
7.2
|
39
|
2.3
|
26.8
|
2008
|
30.2
|
56.8
|
8
|
66
|
1.4
|
32
|
2.5
|
33
|
6.5
|
44
|
2.1
|
35.4
|
2009
|
31.5
|
53.2
|
7.5
|
57
|
1.6
|
43
|
2.3
|
33
|
6.8
|
39
|
2.6
|
37.1
|
2010
|
33.4
|
54.8
|
8.3
|
59.6
|
1.9
|
33.1
|
2.3
|
42.7
|
7.4
|
40
|
2.7
|
31.6
|
2011:DEN
|
32.5
|
54.7
|
8.2
|
55.6
|
1.5
|
32.3
|
2
|
37.9
|
7.3
|
43
|
2.5
|
33.3
|
2011:NYK
|
31
|
57.5
|
5.9
|
66.2
|
1.9
|
26.1
|
2.3
|
36.8
|
6.6
|
40
|
4.6
|
42.4
|
2012
|
31.8
|
52.5
|
6.8
|
59.9
|
1.6
|
31.5
|
2.6
|
42.3
|
6.6
|
35
|
3.7
|
33.5
|
2013
|
34
|
59.2
|
7.5
|
53.7
|
1.4
|
24
|
2
|
42.9
|
5.2
|
48
|
6
|
43.4
|
Right now the media has him as the storyline of the year, and although his combination of elite efficiency and volume is impressive, it's something LeBron has done for many years. In fact, the fabled team record to which catapults Carmelo into the discussion is also on uneasy ground: they're 2nd in offensive efficiency thanks to a deadly three-point assault, but Kidd, Carmelo and others are having career highs in three-point percentage. If Miami holds the lead in the standings at the end of the season, Carmelo will have no credible argument -- and now that LeBron has a ring, his resume is sterling, and a player has to have a historic season to match him.
As an addendum, one problem with the MVP is voter fatigue. It was boring for people to keep voting for Jordan, and it's boring to keep voting for LeBron. However, I think that necessitates an Offensive Player of the Year award. With only a DPOTY award, it implies the MVP is the offensive equivalent and defense is more for specialists. With their being an offensive and defensive award, perhaps it would make people realize a most valuable "player" counts on both sides of the court. It could also be used to award players who do something incredible on one side of the court like Nash.
It would lead to really interesting discussions during some seasons. This year, for example, LeBron is LeBron, Chris Paul is a wizard with the ball and steers the offense while remaining a sharp-shooter, and Durant is combining efficiency and volume in a way that's only happened three times in the history of basketball. Add in the ancient Kobe leading the league in scoring and Carmelo on the Knicks, the OPOTY trophy would be an interesting race -- and one with hopefully more sensible results than some previous MVP awards.
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