The Warriors have been blessed with a return from Andrew Bogut, the defensive ace imported from the midwest. They beat the Raptors on Monday, not exactly the greatest of quests, but Bogut did look spry and active on defense collecting four blocks. With the team's current status in the middle of the pack at the fifth seed in the competitive western conference and the fact that they've resorted to Festus Ezeli, the short Carl Landry and Biedrins at center, people are starting to wonder just how good the team can be at full strength. With Curry (mostly) healthy and a defense free from the delusions of the Don Nelson years, fans are not only surprised, but downright shocked.
Unfortunately, the team's win loss record is outperforming their point differential, even adjusted for strength of schedule. Based on the commonly used formula for converting point differential to wins, they should be 25 and 20, not 28 and 17. Three wins may not sound like much, but over the course of an entire season that balloons to about six wins and potentially three or more playoff spots. It's a winning percentage of 62.2 versus 55.4.
If Bogut's playing time on average is in the mid 20's (so this includes his inevitable missed games), we can calculate how much better the Warriors will be as he displaces the other guys. Using an estimate for Bogut's value from RAPM and the minutes adjustment, trying out conservative, simple assumptions, this is a pretty decent approximation. For one, RAPM loves Bogut, so this errs on the side of the Warriors improving more than they would in reality. I took away minutes from Ezeli, Landry, Biedrins, Draymond Green and Jeremy Tyler in decreasing order at the center position to make way for the Australian big man. This is also assuming the same sort of minutes distribution for everyone else, including Curry's high minutes per game mark.
And the results? Well, from their current win percentage of 62.2, the Warriors with Bogut would substantially improve their point differential (by 2.2) and their win percentage as estimated from their point differential would be ... 62.2. Yes, they would improve enough so that if they didn't outperform their point differential they'd have the exact same win percentage, and I didn't tweak the results to do this either; it was my first try. Objectively, they would be better if Bogut can provide the same sort of defensive value he had in Milwaukee, but you "better" does not mean an increase in win percentage. For Warriors fans, this is a strange case of stasis; but to look on the sunny side of life, the Warriors point differential right now, +1.3, is the same as the Lakers.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Monday, January 28, 2013
2013 All-star Game Picks
After falling behind in a few areas, I'm ready to start producing more articles. The set-up will be one long post for Sundays and one shorter one Wednesday night, with the possibility of other articles at certain dates (e.g. after a historic performance or during the finals.) And yes, this one was one day left; I'm off to a rousing start.
With the surprising injury to Rondo, the already weak eastern conference, especially at the guard positions, will be adding a new player to their all-star team. First, however, I'll be giving my thoughts on who I'd choose for both all-star teams starting with the western conference. Quick notes on what I value: basketball involves both offense and defense. If you want to go purely with stars and entertainment, that's one thing, and it's clearly not what the league is doing when Luol Deng is invited again; but I'm choosing on who's provided the most value to their respective teams. There is not set way to determine value, and a wide variety of measures should be used -- from traditional box score stats to the trained eye to advanced shooting metrics to plus/minus stats. Take in the full breadth of information available and make the most informed decision.
One important point courtesy of John Hollinger: the all-star game is not representative democracy. A team with a great record doesn't have to have two players in the game, and a bad team can have a candidate. Rewarding guys for being on great teams is stupid, using an imaginary rule and pointless given that guys are already rewarded for winning. Being on a bad team is kinda evidence you're a bad player, but only if you know literally nothing else about the game and doesn't understand how to separate between good and bad players. The Spurs having a better record than the Warriors doesn't make Tony Parker a better player than Stephen Curry. That's ridiculous. With that said, it's time to cast my fake ballot for an exhibition game that has already set its roster.
Eastern Conference
Let's get the obvious picks out of the way. LeBron is having one of the greatest regular seasons ever (again). As much as I criticize Carmelo, he's having a fine season and the east is weak anyhow. That's another "frontcourt" player. Wade started poorly, but has regained his composure and has played up to his par, and with a deathly cast of guard candidates in the east he should make the cut. Now that the superstars have been chosen, it's time to move on to the positions.
Guards (three left)
Here are the nominees: Jrue Holliday, Deron Williams, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker (ha), Brandon Jennings, Joe Johnson. Notice how terrible the shooting guard contingent is. Joe Johnson is barely a nominee, and no one else is close (who do you want? Redick?) There are some other point guards with an interesting case but not enough minutes like Lowry (though his defense has left him), as well. I included Kemba Walker because he has the sort of stats people would like on a better team. He shoots a lot and scores points, but unfortunately his accuracy is mediocre and he doesn't really offer much of anything else. On a related note, Monta Ellis submarined as his previous team emerged as the surprise of the season currently holding a good spot in the western conference playoff race and his TS% is only 47.7%, which would be below average even for one of the worst offenses ever and arguably the worst team ever, the 2012 Bobcats. What I'm saying is, the Monta Ellis-ilk -- small shoot-first "point" guards who can't even shoot, don't defend or do much of anything else besides gamble on steals -- don't belong in the all-star game. That brings us to Brandon Jennings. He's having a better year, but as player whose primary value is scoring he should be shooting the ball better and his team is substantially better when he's off the court. Kemba Walker and Jennings are the first two voted off the island.
Now the crew is Jrue, Deron, Kyrie and Joe. Kyrie is a wonderful offensive player who ramps things up late in the game to an absurd degree, and Jrue is a good defender and now a capable anchor on the offensive end (though far from perfect.) If Rondo were healthy I'd vote for him and ignore the backcourt disaster in Brooklyn, but unfortunately I have to pick Deron or Joe unless I want to make a weird case for a role player like Jeff Teague.
Here's the tale of the tape:
Joe Johnson stopped rebounding, is shooting less and is doing so with even less accuracy. Unfortunately, Deron Williams puts up some empty stats, which are decent enough to make it in a weak year, but he's horrendous defensively. Win Shares doesn't show (it's a flawed system for defense), but RAPM hints at something scouts and basketball analysts have been saying for a while. He's atrocious on that end, and I can't excuse him here. His team's defense falls off the cliff when he's on the court, and his backup is CJ Watson, not Avery Bradley; it's hard to form an argument where he's not terrible. Joe Johnson, however, is barely a rung above a Monta Ellis type. His scoring is mediocre, and his decent defense and above average passing skills for his position aren't valuable enough. His RAPM is pretty good, but that measure isn't perfect and the consensus from most analysts isn't positive. Those two players are providing little of value to a team that isn't even very good. So you know what? I'm calling an audible and inserting Paul George into the all-star game as a shooting guard, because when I begin to look at names like Ben Gordon and Jason Kidd as replacements for the Nets' backcourt I know there's a serious problem. Deron and Joe do not deserve to be on the roster, and Paul George played shooting guard when Granger was healthy, so this isn't a huge stretch. In fact, with his stats listed below, you can see he lines up well in the traditional metrics like points and rebounds, and his good defense on the best defensive team in the league puts him over the top.
Starting guards:
Irving
Wade
Backup guards:
Jrue Holiday
Paul George
Frontcourt (four left)
The next set of candidates: Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, David West, Brook Lopez, Chris Bosh, Tyson Chandler, Greg Monroe, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Roy Hibbert. Although Greg Monroe can score, rebound and pass at healthy levels, his offensive value isn't enough to offset his disappointing defense, as he's not quick enough to check fours, can't protect the rim or defend big players. His shooting efficiency is now at Joe Johnson levels. No chance -- he's gone.
David West is the next man tossed off, in my opinion. Most wouldn't even nominate Noah and Josh Smith but those two are defensive anchors with enough skill offensively that they provide a lot of value to their teams. David West is a scorer who isn't scoring accurately, and his improved defense is no match for his teammate Hibbert. He's eliminated. Speaking of, I'd love to tout Hibbert because he's a legitimate DPOTY, but he's only playing 28 minutes a game and his shooting has been horrible. He's gone. At this point, there are 9 guys left and 6 total spots including the wild card picks, who are definitely not going to be guards. It's difficult comparing Brook Lopez to, say, Tyson Chandler, so I'm just going to use another table.
The obvious incongruity is Luol Deng, who's definitely a good defensive player but so are Chandler, Noah and Garnett, and those three provide unique offensive value at the center position. Deng's playing huge minutes to support his stats, which are closer to pedestrian. After that, however, it's tough to find an edge somewhere. Smith is shooting terribly, but he's a strong defensive player and the most underrated non-PG passer. Garnett's playing low minutes, but his defense is surprisingly great. Brook Lopez has some of the best per minute stats, but again low minutes and his plus/minus numbers are weak.
Al Horford is the next logical choice. His traditional stats are decent, but he has no big strengths like Tyson's defense. Who's the more valuable Hawk? Some will say Horford, and may even point to his better raw +/- stats (5.8 versus 4.4), but that's probably because Horford's backup is Pachulia and Smith's is actually Horford. I think I'll give the edge to Josh Smith, and you can pretend it was because of a tie-breaker on account of Josh Smith's past all-star snubs.
At the next level, it appears it's Pierce versus Bosh, as the others provide significant values in different ways while these two have decent stats but nothing spectacular. Bosh's RAPM is pretty low, but those numbers are a bit unstable and it was much higher last year. Bosh provides very efficient scoring at a good volume, higher when LeBron or Wade are gone, and his defense is pretty good thanks to his quick feet and long arms. Pierce, however, has gotten too old, and his main value, scoring, isn't all-star level this year. Garnett's defense is still impressive and his offense pretty good, Brook Lopez has broken through with capable defense while scoring like no other center can, Chandler isn't as good defensively as last year but he hasn't fallen far and his efficiency is again near uncharted waters, and Noah provides exceptional defense with high minutes and a valuable offensive game with high post scoring and passing. Pierce is out, and the weak eastern conference is set.
Starting frontcourt:
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Tyson Chandler
Bench:
Brook Lopez
Joakim Noah
Chris Bosh
Wild cards:
Josh Smith
Kevin Garnett
Western Conference
Again, let's get the obvious guys out of the way. Chris Paul and Kevin Durant need no arguments as legitimate MVP candidates. It's a strong crop, so I'll leave Kobe Bryant as someone of consideration rather than a lock just in case.
Guards (3 left)
Candidates: Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Mike Conley, Kobe Bryant, James Harden, OJ Mayo and Jamal Crawford. The first thing I'll do is throw Crawford off the list because he plays low minutes, his only value is scoring, and his scoring pales in comparison to someone like Harden or even Curry. He also needs to be hidden on defense or the other team will score with no holds barred. OJ Mayo is a similar case. There are arguments strewn across the internet about his apparent candidacy, but you can't take those seriously; he's scoring about 18 a game and it's not like he's commanding the offense or locking down on defense. Tim Duncan averages the same number of points in less minutes, and he's a defensive anchor. So Crawford and Mayo are gone.
Since both the guard and frontcourt positions are strong in the west, I'll just cull a list of three guards and then revisit the rest of the nominees in the wild card section. The strongest candidates are obviously Harden, Bryant and Westbrook. The question is whether or not you can argue someone like Curry or Parker over them. In fact, let's compare Curry to Bryant. Both, strangely enough, have the same efficiency, but Bryant shoots more often by a large amount while Curry is more of a passer. Unfortunately, Bryant's defense has been utterly laughable.
I'll give the slight edge to Curry over Kobe because his new commitment to defense is laudable. Harden also has a slight edge over Kobe because he's become Houston's entire offense with little help and he doesn't stand like a statue on defense. Kobe of all people should be fine with being punished for not winning because for years he used the Lakers' high-class status to his advantage in all-star games and awards he didn't deserve (defensive first teams.) There are a few reasons why the Lakers have been disappointing, and his defense is one. He'll probably make the team on a wild card slot anyway, but it's enough of a problem to hesitate on pulling the trigger.
And then there's Westbrook. The first level of NBA geek would say an extremely high volume scorer with piddling efficiency is damaging to the offense, an effrontery of the Monta Ellis kind. However, the Thunder's offense is much better when he plays, and his aggression is useful in leading the charge of the league's best offense. Durant is a great scorer, but beyond him the cast has some trouble creating their own shots outside of a few Kevin Martin plays. Westbrook is assisted on only 24% of his shots, while Durant is near 54%, and much higher from outside. While Westbrook launches too many ill-advised shots, he's also creating much of their offense when the team is in dire straits, and evidence over the past couple years suggests he is a large value offensively. Tony Parker has an argument here, but his minutes are low, so Westbrook is the pick.
Starting guards:
Chris Paul
James Harden
Bench guards:
Stephen Curry
Russell Westbrook
Frontcourt (5 left)
Nominees: Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Zach Randolph, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum and Rudy Gay.
Given there are five spots here, first I want to quickly select Tim Duncan for a Benjamin Button, turn back the clock resurgence -- although that's an overreaction, I'm glad people are recognizing him and his career high blocks per minute (3.3 per 36 minutes compared to a previous high of 2.8 eight years ago), but he's a pretty consistent player who's been between a rebound percentage of 17.8 and 19.6 for 13 years and his defense is his best in a while. Speaking of defense, Marc Gasol should honestly be the frontrunner for DPOTY, and he does this while being one of the best passers in the frontcourt and a high post player who can hit a stand-still jumper and score in the low block.
I've seen Batum mentioned mainly because of the paucity of quality small forwards, but he's still way too close to the realm of role player, his defense needs refinement and it'd be silly to argue borderline candidate Aldridge is worse. Rudy Gay is a talented, athletic small forward, but his defense has always been disappointing and his offense is decidedly average. We can cross those two off without regret.
With three spots left, the top candidates are Dwight Howard, Aldridge, Griffin, Randolph and Lee. As much as people complain about Howard this year, his box score stats are suggestive of an all-star, and the stuff you can't track well like man to man defense isn't in the favor of, say, Randolph. It's time to break out another table, and to kill two birds with one stone I'll include some guards to pick the wild cards. I'd also like to leave off Al Jefferson, whose defense is has long been a joke and his greatest ability on offense is avoiding turnovers, which you can safely interpret as a back-handed compliment. Paul Millsap would have an argument, but he's frankly a borderline nominee and his low minutes keeps him off the list compared to other power forwards like Aldridge.
With two wild card spots and three frontcourt ones left, all that's left is eliminating four people. Ibaka's production pales in comparison to everyone else, and while PER doesn't track defense well the one thing he does well on defense is actually captured in box scores: blocks. He's off. In comparing the power forwards, Zach is actually behind on offense and he's been pleasantly decent on defense, but Gasol and Tony Allen are the source of the Grizzlies' power. Defense is actually a nearly impossible aspect to quantify because of system effects: the Bulls' system, the Pacers and their lockdown D, and the Grizzlies. Nonetheless, it doesn't take rocket science to figure out Zach hasn't turned into Bill Russell. Speaking of Grizzlies, Conley has pristine +/- numbers, but I'm afraid those are flawed because few analysts or Memphis fans would call him the centerpiece of the entire offense as his numbers suggest.
Now all that's left is Howard, Griffin, Aldridge, Lee, Parker and Bryant -- six guys for five spots. Moving onto meta-analysis, you can see how each guy does in the major categories of PER, Win Shares and RAPM. Kobe excels in PER and Win Shares, putting up a high number of points with great efficiency. Parker is actually right behind him, as he's having an underrated season a year after his absurd MVP candidacy (people wanted to vote for him because the Spurs were doing well, not like it's a team game or anything and there are many reasons for a team's success.) Howard and Griffin have decent stats, but they're aces in plus/minus numbers, and it's certainly not the worst thing to see these two in an all-star game. Aldridge has pretty mediocre numbers that as a Blazers fan I tend to exaggerate (he's like an American Dirk with those jumpers!) David Lee, however, fails to match up well with anyone. Honestly, the only two reasons he was chosen was because he was/is a 20/10 player, which is a completely arbitrary stat like Cabrera winning over the obviously superior Mike Trout in baseball just because of the triple crown, and Golden State has surprised everyone, but this is from their defense and their coaches should be complimented for getting effort out of someone like David Lee, who's still not as good as long-armed Aldridge on that end. And with one Blazer and one Warrior in the all-star game, the representative democracy (accidentally) lives on....
Starting frontcourt:
Kevin Durant
Tim Duncan
Marc Gasol
Bench frontcourt:
Blake Griffin
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dwight Howard
Wild cards:
Tony Parker
Kobe Bryant
With the surprising injury to Rondo, the already weak eastern conference, especially at the guard positions, will be adding a new player to their all-star team. First, however, I'll be giving my thoughts on who I'd choose for both all-star teams starting with the western conference. Quick notes on what I value: basketball involves both offense and defense. If you want to go purely with stars and entertainment, that's one thing, and it's clearly not what the league is doing when Luol Deng is invited again; but I'm choosing on who's provided the most value to their respective teams. There is not set way to determine value, and a wide variety of measures should be used -- from traditional box score stats to the trained eye to advanced shooting metrics to plus/minus stats. Take in the full breadth of information available and make the most informed decision.
One important point courtesy of John Hollinger: the all-star game is not representative democracy. A team with a great record doesn't have to have two players in the game, and a bad team can have a candidate. Rewarding guys for being on great teams is stupid, using an imaginary rule and pointless given that guys are already rewarded for winning. Being on a bad team is kinda evidence you're a bad player, but only if you know literally nothing else about the game and doesn't understand how to separate between good and bad players. The Spurs having a better record than the Warriors doesn't make Tony Parker a better player than Stephen Curry. That's ridiculous. With that said, it's time to cast my fake ballot for an exhibition game that has already set its roster.
Eastern Conference
Let's get the obvious picks out of the way. LeBron is having one of the greatest regular seasons ever (again). As much as I criticize Carmelo, he's having a fine season and the east is weak anyhow. That's another "frontcourt" player. Wade started poorly, but has regained his composure and has played up to his par, and with a deathly cast of guard candidates in the east he should make the cut. Now that the superstars have been chosen, it's time to move on to the positions.
Guards (three left)
Here are the nominees: Jrue Holliday, Deron Williams, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker (ha), Brandon Jennings, Joe Johnson. Notice how terrible the shooting guard contingent is. Joe Johnson is barely a nominee, and no one else is close (who do you want? Redick?) There are some other point guards with an interesting case but not enough minutes like Lowry (though his defense has left him), as well. I included Kemba Walker because he has the sort of stats people would like on a better team. He shoots a lot and scores points, but unfortunately his accuracy is mediocre and he doesn't really offer much of anything else. On a related note, Monta Ellis submarined as his previous team emerged as the surprise of the season currently holding a good spot in the western conference playoff race and his TS% is only 47.7%, which would be below average even for one of the worst offenses ever and arguably the worst team ever, the 2012 Bobcats. What I'm saying is, the Monta Ellis-ilk -- small shoot-first "point" guards who can't even shoot, don't defend or do much of anything else besides gamble on steals -- don't belong in the all-star game. That brings us to Brandon Jennings. He's having a better year, but as player whose primary value is scoring he should be shooting the ball better and his team is substantially better when he's off the court. Kemba Walker and Jennings are the first two voted off the island.
Now the crew is Jrue, Deron, Kyrie and Joe. Kyrie is a wonderful offensive player who ramps things up late in the game to an absurd degree, and Jrue is a good defender and now a capable anchor on the offensive end (though far from perfect.) If Rondo were healthy I'd vote for him and ignore the backcourt disaster in Brooklyn, but unfortunately I have to pick Deron or Joe unless I want to make a weird case for a role player like Jeff Teague.
Here's the tale of the tape:
|
Player
|
Pts/
game
|
Rebs/
game
|
Asts/
game
|
TS%
|
PER
|
OWS
|
DWS
|
Off. RAPM
|
Def. RAPM
|
|
Deron Williams
|
17.1
|
3.3
|
7.8
|
54.3
|
18.7
|
4.0
|
0.9
|
3.7
|
-3.4
|
|
Joe Johnson
|
17.2
|
3.0
|
3.5
|
52.7
|
14.6
|
2.7
|
0.5
|
3.6
|
-0.2
|
Joe Johnson stopped rebounding, is shooting less and is doing so with even less accuracy. Unfortunately, Deron Williams puts up some empty stats, which are decent enough to make it in a weak year, but he's horrendous defensively. Win Shares doesn't show (it's a flawed system for defense), but RAPM hints at something scouts and basketball analysts have been saying for a while. He's atrocious on that end, and I can't excuse him here. His team's defense falls off the cliff when he's on the court, and his backup is CJ Watson, not Avery Bradley; it's hard to form an argument where he's not terrible. Joe Johnson, however, is barely a rung above a Monta Ellis type. His scoring is mediocre, and his decent defense and above average passing skills for his position aren't valuable enough. His RAPM is pretty good, but that measure isn't perfect and the consensus from most analysts isn't positive. Those two players are providing little of value to a team that isn't even very good. So you know what? I'm calling an audible and inserting Paul George into the all-star game as a shooting guard, because when I begin to look at names like Ben Gordon and Jason Kidd as replacements for the Nets' backcourt I know there's a serious problem. Deron and Joe do not deserve to be on the roster, and Paul George played shooting guard when Granger was healthy, so this isn't a huge stretch. In fact, with his stats listed below, you can see he lines up well in the traditional metrics like points and rebounds, and his good defense on the best defensive team in the league puts him over the top.
|
Player
|
Pts/
game
|
Rebs/
game
|
Asts/
game
|
TS%
|
PER
|
OWS
|
DWS
|
Off. RAPM
|
Def. RAPM
|
|
Paul George
|
17.4
|
7.7
|
3.7
|
53.0
|
17.3
|
1.5
|
3.3
|
-0.7
|
3.1
|
Starting guards:
Irving
Wade
Backup guards:
Jrue Holiday
Paul George
Frontcourt (four left)
The next set of candidates: Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, David West, Brook Lopez, Chris Bosh, Tyson Chandler, Greg Monroe, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Roy Hibbert. Although Greg Monroe can score, rebound and pass at healthy levels, his offensive value isn't enough to offset his disappointing defense, as he's not quick enough to check fours, can't protect the rim or defend big players. His shooting efficiency is now at Joe Johnson levels. No chance -- he's gone.
David West is the next man tossed off, in my opinion. Most wouldn't even nominate Noah and Josh Smith but those two are defensive anchors with enough skill offensively that they provide a lot of value to their teams. David West is a scorer who isn't scoring accurately, and his improved defense is no match for his teammate Hibbert. He's eliminated. Speaking of, I'd love to tout Hibbert because he's a legitimate DPOTY, but he's only playing 28 minutes a game and his shooting has been horrible. He's gone. At this point, there are 9 guys left and 6 total spots including the wild card picks, who are definitely not going to be guards. It's difficult comparing Brook Lopez to, say, Tyson Chandler, so I'm just going to use another table.
|
Player
|
Pts/
game
|
Rebs/
game
|
Asts/
game
|
TS%
|
PER
|
OWS
|
DWS
|
Off. RAPM
|
Def. RAPM
|
|
Paul Pierce
|
18.8
|
5.7
|
3.8
|
53.9
|
18.5
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
|
Josh Smith
|
16.7
|
8.5
|
4.0
|
47.6
|
17.3
|
-0.7
|
2.5
|
0.1
|
4.0
|
|
Kevin Garnett
|
14.7
|
7.2
|
2.1
|
54.2
|
18.4
|
1.1
|
2.2
|
-0.3
|
5.5
|
|
Brook Lopez
|
18.7
|
7.3
|
0.8
|
56.2
|
25.3
|
2.8
|
1.4
|
0
|
1.1
|
|
Chris Bosh
|
17.2
|
7.2
|
1.7
|
60.5
|
21.0
|
3.6
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
1.0
|
|
Tyson Chandler
|
11.7
|
10.7
|
0.9
|
69.9
|
20.5
|
5.1
|
1.6
|
2.1
|
2.7
|
|
Al Horford
|
15.9
|
9.9
|
3.3
|
54.1
|
18.3
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
0.3
|
0
|
|
Joakim Noah
|
12.1
|
11.1
|
4.1
|
51.6
|
17.3
|
1.5
|
3.4
|
0.4
|
3.8
|
|
Luol Deng
|
17.4
|
6.4
|
3.0
|
52.4
|
15.2
|
1.7
|
2.1
|
-0.8
|
2.0
|
The obvious incongruity is Luol Deng, who's definitely a good defensive player but so are Chandler, Noah and Garnett, and those three provide unique offensive value at the center position. Deng's playing huge minutes to support his stats, which are closer to pedestrian. After that, however, it's tough to find an edge somewhere. Smith is shooting terribly, but he's a strong defensive player and the most underrated non-PG passer. Garnett's playing low minutes, but his defense is surprisingly great. Brook Lopez has some of the best per minute stats, but again low minutes and his plus/minus numbers are weak.
Al Horford is the next logical choice. His traditional stats are decent, but he has no big strengths like Tyson's defense. Who's the more valuable Hawk? Some will say Horford, and may even point to his better raw +/- stats (5.8 versus 4.4), but that's probably because Horford's backup is Pachulia and Smith's is actually Horford. I think I'll give the edge to Josh Smith, and you can pretend it was because of a tie-breaker on account of Josh Smith's past all-star snubs.
At the next level, it appears it's Pierce versus Bosh, as the others provide significant values in different ways while these two have decent stats but nothing spectacular. Bosh's RAPM is pretty low, but those numbers are a bit unstable and it was much higher last year. Bosh provides very efficient scoring at a good volume, higher when LeBron or Wade are gone, and his defense is pretty good thanks to his quick feet and long arms. Pierce, however, has gotten too old, and his main value, scoring, isn't all-star level this year. Garnett's defense is still impressive and his offense pretty good, Brook Lopez has broken through with capable defense while scoring like no other center can, Chandler isn't as good defensively as last year but he hasn't fallen far and his efficiency is again near uncharted waters, and Noah provides exceptional defense with high minutes and a valuable offensive game with high post scoring and passing. Pierce is out, and the weak eastern conference is set.
Starting frontcourt:
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Tyson Chandler
Bench:
Brook Lopez
Joakim Noah
Chris Bosh
Wild cards:
Josh Smith
Kevin Garnett
Western Conference
Again, let's get the obvious guys out of the way. Chris Paul and Kevin Durant need no arguments as legitimate MVP candidates. It's a strong crop, so I'll leave Kobe Bryant as someone of consideration rather than a lock just in case.
Guards (3 left)
Candidates: Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Mike Conley, Kobe Bryant, James Harden, OJ Mayo and Jamal Crawford. The first thing I'll do is throw Crawford off the list because he plays low minutes, his only value is scoring, and his scoring pales in comparison to someone like Harden or even Curry. He also needs to be hidden on defense or the other team will score with no holds barred. OJ Mayo is a similar case. There are arguments strewn across the internet about his apparent candidacy, but you can't take those seriously; he's scoring about 18 a game and it's not like he's commanding the offense or locking down on defense. Tim Duncan averages the same number of points in less minutes, and he's a defensive anchor. So Crawford and Mayo are gone.
Since both the guard and frontcourt positions are strong in the west, I'll just cull a list of three guards and then revisit the rest of the nominees in the wild card section. The strongest candidates are obviously Harden, Bryant and Westbrook. The question is whether or not you can argue someone like Curry or Parker over them. In fact, let's compare Curry to Bryant. Both, strangely enough, have the same efficiency, but Bryant shoots more often by a large amount while Curry is more of a passer. Unfortunately, Bryant's defense has been utterly laughable.
Kobe's defense: guarding the ghost
I'll give the slight edge to Curry over Kobe because his new commitment to defense is laudable. Harden also has a slight edge over Kobe because he's become Houston's entire offense with little help and he doesn't stand like a statue on defense. Kobe of all people should be fine with being punished for not winning because for years he used the Lakers' high-class status to his advantage in all-star games and awards he didn't deserve (defensive first teams.) There are a few reasons why the Lakers have been disappointing, and his defense is one. He'll probably make the team on a wild card slot anyway, but it's enough of a problem to hesitate on pulling the trigger.
And then there's Westbrook. The first level of NBA geek would say an extremely high volume scorer with piddling efficiency is damaging to the offense, an effrontery of the Monta Ellis kind. However, the Thunder's offense is much better when he plays, and his aggression is useful in leading the charge of the league's best offense. Durant is a great scorer, but beyond him the cast has some trouble creating their own shots outside of a few Kevin Martin plays. Westbrook is assisted on only 24% of his shots, while Durant is near 54%, and much higher from outside. While Westbrook launches too many ill-advised shots, he's also creating much of their offense when the team is in dire straits, and evidence over the past couple years suggests he is a large value offensively. Tony Parker has an argument here, but his minutes are low, so Westbrook is the pick.
Starting guards:
Chris Paul
James Harden
Bench guards:
Stephen Curry
Russell Westbrook
Frontcourt (5 left)
Nominees: Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Zach Randolph, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum and Rudy Gay.
Given there are five spots here, first I want to quickly select Tim Duncan for a Benjamin Button, turn back the clock resurgence -- although that's an overreaction, I'm glad people are recognizing him and his career high blocks per minute (3.3 per 36 minutes compared to a previous high of 2.8 eight years ago), but he's a pretty consistent player who's been between a rebound percentage of 17.8 and 19.6 for 13 years and his defense is his best in a while. Speaking of defense, Marc Gasol should honestly be the frontrunner for DPOTY, and he does this while being one of the best passers in the frontcourt and a high post player who can hit a stand-still jumper and score in the low block.
I've seen Batum mentioned mainly because of the paucity of quality small forwards, but he's still way too close to the realm of role player, his defense needs refinement and it'd be silly to argue borderline candidate Aldridge is worse. Rudy Gay is a talented, athletic small forward, but his defense has always been disappointing and his offense is decidedly average. We can cross those two off without regret.
With three spots left, the top candidates are Dwight Howard, Aldridge, Griffin, Randolph and Lee. As much as people complain about Howard this year, his box score stats are suggestive of an all-star, and the stuff you can't track well like man to man defense isn't in the favor of, say, Randolph. It's time to break out another table, and to kill two birds with one stone I'll include some guards to pick the wild cards. I'd also like to leave off Al Jefferson, whose defense is has long been a joke and his greatest ability on offense is avoiding turnovers, which you can safely interpret as a back-handed compliment. Paul Millsap would have an argument, but he's frankly a borderline nominee and his low minutes keeps him off the list compared to other power forwards like Aldridge.
|
Player
|
Pts/
game
|
Rebs/
game
|
Asts/
game
|
TS%
|
PER
|
OWS
|
DWS
|
Off. RAPM
|
Def. RAPM
|
|
Dwight Howard
|
16.5
|
12.0
|
1.6
|
57.3
|
19.5
|
1.6
|
2.3
|
-0.1
|
4.4
|
|
Blake Griffin
|
18.4
|
8.5
|
3.7
|
56.3
|
23.1
|
3.8
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
1.6
|
|
LaMarcus Aldridge
|
20.5
|
8.8
|
2.5
|
52.0
|
19.5
|
2.5
|
1.6
|
2.2
|
1.5
|
|
David Lee
|
19.5
|
10.8
|
3.6
|
55.6
|
19.4
|
3.1
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
|
Zach Randolph
|
16.1
|
11.6
|
1.4
|
52.5
|
19.0
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
|
Serge Ibaka
|
13.9
|
8.3
|
0.5
|
59.5
|
18.6
|
2.8
|
2.0
|
-0.5
|
2.9
|
|
Tony Parker
|
20.1
|
3.0
|
7.5
|
58.6
|
23.3
|
5.0
|
1.6
|
2.6
|
0.9
|
|
Mike Conley
|
13.0
|
2.5
|
5.8
|
53.8
|
17.1
|
2.1
|
2.4
|
3.4
|
1.0
|
|
Kobe Bryant
|
28.7
|
5.0
|
5.1
|
57.5
|
23.7
|
5.5
|
1.2
|
3.8
|
-1.2
|
With two wild card spots and three frontcourt ones left, all that's left is eliminating four people. Ibaka's production pales in comparison to everyone else, and while PER doesn't track defense well the one thing he does well on defense is actually captured in box scores: blocks. He's off. In comparing the power forwards, Zach is actually behind on offense and he's been pleasantly decent on defense, but Gasol and Tony Allen are the source of the Grizzlies' power. Defense is actually a nearly impossible aspect to quantify because of system effects: the Bulls' system, the Pacers and their lockdown D, and the Grizzlies. Nonetheless, it doesn't take rocket science to figure out Zach hasn't turned into Bill Russell. Speaking of Grizzlies, Conley has pristine +/- numbers, but I'm afraid those are flawed because few analysts or Memphis fans would call him the centerpiece of the entire offense as his numbers suggest.
Now all that's left is Howard, Griffin, Aldridge, Lee, Parker and Bryant -- six guys for five spots. Moving onto meta-analysis, you can see how each guy does in the major categories of PER, Win Shares and RAPM. Kobe excels in PER and Win Shares, putting up a high number of points with great efficiency. Parker is actually right behind him, as he's having an underrated season a year after his absurd MVP candidacy (people wanted to vote for him because the Spurs were doing well, not like it's a team game or anything and there are many reasons for a team's success.) Howard and Griffin have decent stats, but they're aces in plus/minus numbers, and it's certainly not the worst thing to see these two in an all-star game. Aldridge has pretty mediocre numbers that as a Blazers fan I tend to exaggerate (he's like an American Dirk with those jumpers!) David Lee, however, fails to match up well with anyone. Honestly, the only two reasons he was chosen was because he was/is a 20/10 player, which is a completely arbitrary stat like Cabrera winning over the obviously superior Mike Trout in baseball just because of the triple crown, and Golden State has surprised everyone, but this is from their defense and their coaches should be complimented for getting effort out of someone like David Lee, who's still not as good as long-armed Aldridge on that end. And with one Blazer and one Warrior in the all-star game, the representative democracy (accidentally) lives on....
Starting frontcourt:
Kevin Durant
Tim Duncan
Marc Gasol
Bench frontcourt:
Blake Griffin
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dwight Howard
Wild cards:
Tony Parker
Kobe Bryant
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