How the Warriors with Bogut Will Be Exactly the Same

The Warriors have been blessed with a return from Andrew Bogut, the defensive ace imported from the midwest. They beat the Raptors on Monday, not exactly the greatest of quests, but Bogut did look spry and active on defense collecting four blocks. With the team's current status in the middle of the pack at the fifth seed in the competitive western conference and the fact that they've resorted to Festus Ezeli, the short Carl Landry and Biedrins at center, people are starting to wonder just how good the team can be at full strength. With Curry (mostly) healthy and a defense free from the delusions of the Don Nelson years, fans are not only surprised, but downright shocked.

Unfortunately, the team's win loss record is outperforming their point differential, even adjusted for strength of schedule. Based on the commonly used formula for converting point differential to wins, they should be 25 and 20, not 28 and 17. Three wins may not sound like much, but over the course of an entire season that balloons to about six wins and potentially three or more playoff spots. It's a winning percentage of 62.2 versus 55.4.

If Bogut's playing time on average is in the mid 20's (so this includes his inevitable missed games), we can calculate how much better the Warriors will be as he displaces the other guys. Using an estimate for Bogut's value from RAPM and the minutes adjustment, trying out conservative, simple assumptions, this is a pretty decent approximation. For one, RAPM loves Bogut, so this errs on the side of the Warriors improving more than they would in reality. I took away minutes from Ezeli, Landry, Biedrins, Draymond Green and Jeremy Tyler in decreasing order at the center position to make way for the Australian big man. This is also assuming the same sort of minutes distribution for everyone else, including Curry's high minutes per game mark.

And the results? Well, from their current win percentage of 62.2, the Warriors with Bogut would substantially improve their point differential (by 2.2) and their win percentage as estimated from their point differential would be ... 62.2. Yes, they would improve enough so that if they didn't outperform their point differential they'd have the exact same win percentage, and I didn't tweak the results to do this either; it was my first try. Objectively, they would be better if Bogut can provide the same sort of defensive value he had in Milwaukee, but you "better" does not mean an increase in win percentage. For Warriors fans, this is a strange case of stasis; but to look on the sunny side of life, the Warriors point differential right now, +1.3, is the same as the Lakers.

Golden State Warriors 2012-13 Preview

This will be a short article; I mainly wanted to comment on the huge variability of the outcome of the team due to projected injuries to a couple of players. Obviously, Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry miss a metric tonne of games due to injuries where last season their combined minutes barely clears the 1000 minute mark. They have, however, collected a large number of 2000+ minute seasons, so it's unclear following this turmoil exactly which direction they'll go. Anyone who purports definitive knowledge while not possessing insider knowledge and a doctorate in medicine should not be trusted.

Well, they have other players on the team who, we're assuming professionals; so how much does this matter? I drafted three scenarios using super secret analytic model of ultimate power. One looked at Bogut and Curry playing the same amount as last season (adjusted from 66 games), and another at 2700 minutes each. Lastly, one with a modest amount of playing time hedging the bet between the two extremes. The results are amazing.

Scenarios	Stephen Curry (mins)	Andrew Bogut (mins)	Wins	Offensive efficiency	Defensive efficiency
1	909	452	23	-2.4	-4.2
2	1400	1600	29	-1.9	-2.5
3	2600	2600	39	-0.4	-0.3

The efficiency measures are compared to the league average. Both appear to have an amazing effect on one side of the court. They're, strangely enough, the NorCal, bizarro world, poor man's version of Nash and Howard, but as brittle as Mr. Glass. Bogut in a healthy year would single-handedly lift a terrible defense from the doldrums to the league average, which is an Atlas-worthy feat. Curry has a relatively smaller effect on offense, but oddly his defense is more valuable than Bogut's offense. I think that's a bit of a fluke in the numbers I have (is it because for an offensive spark teams play small and put a skilled offensive player at center, while Curry waffles between two positions with decent size?), but it's also because the Warriors' supporting cast is absolutely terrible.

David Lee used to be an exciting player on the Knicks, but now he's exposed as a scoring power forward who gives up his value on the defensive end. Jarrett Jack shouldn't be starting, but if Curry is injured that may happen many times. Richard Jefferson is their offensive spark on the wings, yet he couldn't be trusted with a fourth man role on the Spurs. Harrison Barnes is probably a couple years away from contributing positively. Klay Thompson is promising, but like like the Warriors before him his defense negates his outside shooting. Udoh, traded to the Bucks in a package for Bogut, was a secretly great defensive player. Andris Biedrin's professional game was last seen in 2009. The amnesty was used on Charlie Bell's four-million dollar expiring contract instead of Andris' because they were pursuing free agent center DeAndre Jordan. Wait, that doesn't make any sense....

Barring major developments from their young players, their season completely relies on Bogut and Curry to have any shot at contending for the playoffs in the crowded west. Unfortunately, bad news about Curry's ankles is becoming much too common, and Bogut's reaching an age where injuries will only accelerate in frequency. I have absolutely no way of predicting their season, and as such I'll take something in between the extremes to eliminate the possibility of being jaw-droppingly wrong. With the amazing value of these two when they can play and the depressing supporting cast, every minute helps. It's not quite a way for fans with high blood pressure to follow basketball.

Model (read: rolling some dice) win total prediction:
30-52
(rounded up simply because I like round numbers and this feels arbitrary either way)