Play by Play Data Now Goes Back to 96-97

Play by play data has now been released for a few new seasons, going back to 96-97. What does this mean? There is now more complete information for a few more seasons, which can lead to more detailed shot data and plus/minus numbers. Basically, what this means is that for the first time plus minus models can now directly measure Jordan on the Bulls, although it's only his last two seasons, and a more complete appraisal of prime Shaq.

You can see the detailed information starting here. Click on advanced to sort through "net" plus minus data. Click on player shots to sort by percentage by shot distance. Dig through all the levels to find the interesting information. For instance, here are the top midrange shooters in 1996-97 and 1997-98 with a minimum number of attempts at 100:

Table 1: 1996-97 Midrange Shots

Name	Midrange FG	Midrange FGA	%
Muggsy Bogues (CHH)	138	242	57.0
Steve Kerr (CHI)	171	305	56.1
Bill Wennington (CHI)	87	155	56.1
Anthony Mason (CHH)	99	177	55.9
Dell Curry (CHH)	207	372	55.6
Marty Conlon (BOS)	101	183	55.2
David Wesley (BOS)	188	360	52.2
Ricky Pierce (CHH)	60	119	50.4
Glen Rice (CHH)	335	665	50.4
Dino Radja (BOS)	60	119	50.4
Chris Mullin (GSW)	221	445	49.7
Michael Jordan (CHI)	588	1202	48.9

Table 2: 1997-98 Midrange Shots

Name	Midrange FG	Midrange FGA	%
B.J. Armstrong (CHH)	52	98	53.1
Tom Gugliotta (MIN)	185	378	48.9
Dale Ellis (SEA)	147	301	48.8
Karl Malone (UTA)	383	797	48.1
Patrick Ewing (NYK)	87	183	47.5
Dana Barros (BOS)	98	210	46.7
Hubert Davis (DAL)	175	378	46.3
Joe Dumars (DET)	138	300	46.0
Eldridge Recasner (ATL)	87	189	46.0
Jeff Hornacek (UTA)	189	413	45.8
Steve Nash (PHX)	120	262	45.8
Muggsy Bogues (GSW)	99	216	45.8

Table 3: 1998-99 Midrange Shots

Name	Midrange FG	Midrange FGA	%
Muggsy Bogues (GSW)	57	108	52.8
Dell Curry (MIL)	71	138	51.4
Danny Ferry (CLE)	83	168	49.4
Dana Barros (BOS)	56	117	47.9
Lindsey Hunter (DET)	108	227	47.6
J.R. Reid (CHH)	55	117	47.0
Wesley Person (CLE)	69	148	46.6
Rik Smits (IND)	160	347	46.1
Rick Fox (LAL)	50	110	45.5
Arvydas Sabonis (POR)	64	141	45.4
Dean Garrett (MIN)	53	117	45.3
Luc Longley (PHX)	61	135	45.2

The pint-sized Muggsy Bogues was a supreme midrange shooter, and you can see a bunch of other names known for their shooting prowess like Curry, Hornacek, Nash, Ellis, Kerr, etc. There are also a lot of big men on the list like the huge Sabonis, Ewing and Luc Longley. What's more amazing is that Gheorghe Muresan hit 52% of his shots in 97 and barely missed the attempts cutoff at 95. These numbers are also comparable to the recent seasons where only elite guys like Nash or, strangely enough, Horford consistently hit their midrange shots in the upper 40's and 50's. Another interesting note is the sheer volume of Jordan's midrange game: 1200! And he does this with a very good percentage, even though he's constantly being guarded by the best defender or double-teamed. He makes the leaderboard in 97, and missed it the next season with 42% and 1100 shots. I couldn't find a player with similar volume, even Bryant when he averaged 35 points.

The plus-minus leaderboard is intriguing, but the obvious problem is that players on great teams will have sterling numbers. Ostertag is the leader one year, likely because he only plays with the other starters more often than not, while Stockton and Malone play such long stretches they're often in there with the bench so the offense doesn't fall apart. Hopefully soon, we'll have adjusted plus-minus models out there trying to measure the Holy Grail: Michael Jordan.