Although the season already started, my preview ran long. And with that, enjoy an overly long article on the western conference full of odd, unexpected statistics and full team breakdowns. (If you don't think it's fair to make predictions now, I already locked in these predictions
here.)
Phoenix Suns
The Suns, like the Bucks in the east, are basically fielding an entirely new team. After finally being convinced it was time to fully rebuild, they let go of veteran 3/D specialist Jared Dudley for Bledsoe, watched footwork maestro Scola leave for the Pacers, and traded disgruntled Gortat for the injured Emeka Okafor, who may not even play for them. After performing their magic on Jermaine O'Neal's ailing body, he was picked up by the Warriors. Beasley failed an audition for a team with inept talent, and somehow got signed by the world champion Miami Heat. He was the worst high usage scorer in the league, but he wasn't really holding anyone back; they didn't have any scorers. What's left, besides an intriguing backcourt, is a thin roster bereft of talent and one homing in on a high draft pick.
Their only positive addition was Eric Bledsoe, who's been promoted from a bench gig to a starting job. "Mini-LeBron" is a destructive defensive guard who helped lead a strong defensive unit off the bench for the Clippers last season and blocks an impressive number of shots for someone his size. No one Bledsoe's height or smaller blocked shots as much as he did (a 3% block rate, meaning he blocks 3% of all two-point shot attempts.) The closest with at least 1000 minutes was Roddy Beaubois at 1.8%, and you have to move up to the 6' 4" height to find someone with a better season: Wade in 2012 with a rate of 3.1%. He picks up a lot of steals too, but his ability to run a team as a point guard is questioned for good reasons. He turns the ball over too often, especially for someone with so few assists. His shooting percentages are poor, but this might partly be shot selection. He's an excellent finisher and somehow shot 39% from outside, preferring the corners but bombing from the middle of the floor too, but he takes too many midrange shots at a low percentage, forcing the issue too often. Alas, Phoenix doesn't have anyone else who can shoot, so these trends may continue. Hopefully, given he's young, he'll be able to develop his outside shot.
Joining Bledsoe in the backcourt is large point guard Goran Dragic, who developed under Steve Nash and came back to the Valley of the Suns to replace him. Smack dab in the middle of his prime, he's refined his passing skills and managed to hand out over 7 assists last season to a team lacking talent. Like Bledsoe, he's a below average shooter but a great finisher -- he's actually better at the rim than the athletic Bledsoe. He's even turnover prone too, which leaves people the impression they're not done trading. But the duo will operate better in transition, as new coach Hornacek has promised a fast-paced attack.
Besides the backcourt, there's not much to like here. Most assume Alex Len will be the center of the future, but he was disappointing in two seasons with Maryland. While Drummond lived up to his potential, one case doesn't make a general rule, and Drummond was younger with better athletic indicators. Alex Len had poor rebounding numbers for someone his size and a minuscule steal rate. Steals aren't very important in the NBA, sometimes just indicating which players gambled too much, but for a young player in college it's a sign of athleticism and awareness. This is a just a general rule, however, and doesn't apply to every single player; it could just be the system he played in and his own tendencies on defense. But it doesn't bode well when looking historically at the lowest and highest centers.
Source.
With the forward slots now open, a number of young players are auditioning for future contracts. If Marcus and Markieff Morris weren't twins, few people would know they existed. They're identical twins, and like Patty and Selma there's a distinguishing feature: Marcus is the SF and Markieff is the PF. Yes, identical twins are usually two different types of players and sometimes play different, and yes, that makes no sense at face value. (I'm going to devote 10,000 words and a sea of data to the issue of twins and brothers in general one day.) The Phoenix Suns have a long history with twins that goes back to
Dick and Tom Van Arsdale in 1977. Only two sets of twins have played for the same team at the same time -- both with the Suns. And they just lost Robin Lopez, twin brother of Brook Lopez, to the Blazers. They've also been enamored of players with NBA brothers like Taylor Griffin, Luke Zeller, Jarron Collins, and new addition Miles Plumlee, who will receive major minutes in the frontcourt.
The rest of the team is, well, boring. My sources indicate PJ Tucker played nearly 2000 minutes last year, but I'm dubious. Gerald Green keeps bouncing off the floor and around the league. This is his best case scenario: a team without any good wing players, but with a devotion to push in transition, and one comfortable with being bad, presenting him opportunities to pull off his amazing dunks. Channing Frye is back after a serious health problem, and he might be more wanted now because of his unique skill: he's a high volume three-point shooting seven footer.
It's going to be a cold season in the desert. The NBA is a zero-sum game, or even worse -- many teams consider themselves failure when not winning a title even with 55 plus wins. Teams aren't happy losing in the finals. Teams aren't happy stopping in the conference finals. Teams aren't happy when the playoffs stop short of a title. Teams aren't happy approaching a 0.500 win/loss record when missing the playoffs. Then the ultimate lottery bound teams, the ones aiming for number one draft pick overall, are in some form of hell waiting for a supernatural talent from above to save them from their misery. As the Suns look to become the Phoenix and rise from ashes, they must first become ashes -- and endure a painful season.
Random prediction: Eric Bledsoe leads the league in steals, barely edging Rubio and Paul.
Win/loss prediction: 23-59
New Orleans Pelicans
With young talent and an incoming duo of a former rookie of the year and an all-star point guard, the Pelicans seem poised for a breakout. But they have a long way to go, and they have some awkward fits. The 2013 season was supposed to be the year of Anthony Davis, but he was bothered by injuries and saw Lillard take his rookie award. New Orleans was a league average offensive team led by Greivis Vasquez at point guard (he led the NBA in total assists.) They were unremarkable in every basic category except maybe offensive rebounding, where they ranked sixth right behind the Bulls. However, they were bottom seven in free throw rate (FTA/FGA), suggesting a lack of aggressive slashers; Vasquez is a pass-first guard.
The additions should change the team. Both Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday push to score, and with the former getting to the foul line with regularity. Quietly, Evans had a nice season in 2013, arguably better than his rookie year. His stats didn't raise any eyebrows because he played less minutes than ever, which he'll do again this season. He still took less shots on a per possession basis, but his efficiency increased with a better three-point percentage and less midrange shots. He's not a pure shooter, but he's an effective slasher who can finish inside and get to the line. For a player who put up the lauded 20-5-5 numbers as a 20 year-old, he's disappointing in that we expected a superstar, but in a lesser role off the bench his weaknesses are masked.
The perception of the 76ers and Jrue Holiday is imbalanced. People now see the 76ers as a horrid sinkhole is ineptitude, but they weren't seen like that last season with Holiday. What other major changes were there? Dorell Wright is a fine rotation player but nothing elite, and Nick Young is the requisite gunner who can't shoot. One of the biggest changes was Doug Collins -- and it's just a coach. He's not Phil Jackson. Yet Jrue Holiday is viewed with disdain in some circles for the audacity to shoot a lot with poor percentages, but who else was going to shoot? A TS% of 49.6 is ugly, but he was pressed to shot far more often than he was comfortable doing at a usage rate of 26.6. But the same criticism applies to Vasquez, who had a TS% of 50.2 and a usage of 23. The difference lies in other parts of their game, where Vasquez is a better passer but Jrue the vastly better defender; and with their horrible defense last season as a team they'll welcome this change.
In a crowded backcourt, the next guard with potential is Eric Gordon; he looked like he was on his way to a couple all-star appearances as one of the best shooting guards in the league before injuries destroyed his progress. Along with the draft pick that turned out to be Austin Rivers, he was supposed to be the prize for giving up Chris Paul. It's not easy to see why: at 22 years-old, he scored his own age, 22 points per game, at a good efficiency, thanks to a high rate of fouls and three-pointers. He was a strong guard who bullied his way to the basket, and his strength was useful on defense. Like Harden, he ignores midrange shots, so it's disquieting when his TS% dives to 52 with the same proportion of shots. In 2011, he shot 66% at the rim; in 2013, this dropped to 56%. Coupled with his regression on three-pointers, it's an alarming development in what was supposed to be a great NBA career. Sadly, his biggest problem is staying on the court. Excluding his rookie year, he's only played 54% of his available games.
Though with all their high scoring perimeter players, this is the season of Anthony Davis. After putting up one of the most statistically potential-filled seasons in college history for a freshman, his rookie year was underwhelming, but that's partly due to his low minutes total and that a potential defensive monster won't reach that status at such a young age. With his length and activity level, there were plenty of signs of his promise on defense like a fairly high number of steals and blocks. He also projects as an extremely efficient scorer. His percentages were "only" comfortably above average because he shot a ton of midrange jumpers at a paltry 30%. He ranked near the top in percentage at the rim, and with his high percentage (for a big man) at the foul line he's tailor-made for elite efficiency. But his defense was poor -- Synergy rated him near the bottom (401st overall) at 0.97 points per play allowed. He gave up a lot of points on post-ups, which is no surprise considering the work he needed done to improve his strength, but was particularly bad with plays Synergy coded as "spot-ups." The Hornets overall defense was probably a big culprit here. An optimist would see his isolation numbers (0.75 points per play, ranked 97th) and see a promising young defender. He still needs to learn a lot about positioning and defending NBA-level pick and rolls, but he has the rare tools to master defense. It's unclear exactly how good he'll be this season, but given his age expect a large improvement.
Though with all the young talent, the pieces don't fit together. The best center on the team is probably Greg "Street Cleaner" Steimsma, but he shouldn't be starting for an NBA team because besides shotblocking he doesn't offer anything else. Anthony Davis is not yet a center, and the best frontcourt player besides him is Ryan Anderson, who definitely shouldn't play center. Given the problems they had last season defensively, going center-less won't help them make the playoffs. And with the odd mix of slashers/ball dominant guards, it's a weird roster that looks like it needs one or two big trades, but they're already gone through that. Sure, Jrue Holiday-Gordon is a good defensive backcourt and a tandem that could play decently together on offense, but Evans is going to play more simply due to injury players with Commissioner Gordon and both are shaky shooters. Jrue is actually much better when he sets his feet and spots-up, but he didn't get to do that in the morass of the 76ers offense last season. Now it's his time to prove it, and to prove this new group of young players can work together.
The other likely starter is Al-Farouq Aminu. He's an extremely long small forward who rates well defensively even at a young age and rebounds like a frontcourt player on defense. But offensively, he's still raw and may never play well on that end of the court. Even though the Pelicans need more help defensively, he'll play fairly low minutes seeing Tyreke Evans often taking the SF slot to close games. Jason Smith will start a few games too at center over Steimsma, although he really shouldn't: he's a face-up jump shooting big man who's a poor defender. It'll be interesting to see if Austin Rivers will start any games and make any gigantic leaps in progress that he'll need if he wants to remain an NBA player. When Gordon is injured, Evans is the likely starter at SG, and Jrue is a lock at PG. Austin Rivers' shooting percentages were abnormally low. A TS% of 42 shouldn't be possible with major minutes. Usually when a player is inefficient it's because of poor shot selection and relying on difficult midrange shots. But Rivers shot 49% at the rim. Amazingly, even though he shot 32.6% from three-point range, it was a more efficient shot for him than one inside three feet. That should be impossible. Lithe guards who can't shoot even at the rim and aren't out there for defense fall out of the league like flies. Sebastian Telfair was flashy point guard who awed crowds with his cross-over, but he couldn't finish inside and his jump shot was never good. He never stuck in the league. Thankfully, there are a number of guards with horrifically inefficient seasons as young players like Jamaal Crawford's rookie year with a 35 FG% or Jim Paxon going from a TS% of 44 from his rookie season to 56 the next.
With a change in their own name to something regional, it's time for New Orleans
Random prediction: Anthony Davis, who looked better in pre-season, makes the all-star team as David Lee and Zach Randolph don't repeat and Duncan may miss it based on age.
Win/loss prediction: 30-52
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento fought a real battle: keeping the team in their city. Criticizing the team feels disrespectful in this way because the Kings nearly left town, but in projecting their 2014 season you can't get around the fact that they were one of the worst defensive teams and played selfish ball on the other end of the court. They had the second worst assist rate in the league, per HoopData, but it would have been much worse if it weren't for their diminutive point guard Isaiah Thomas. They've long been one of the worst teams in this regard, which is disappointing because it runs counter to the Webber, early-00's era Kings. With a big sign-and-trade, bringing in high assist point guard Vasquez, and a big man mentor to DeMarcus Cousins and his huge new contract, the Kings are hoping it's the dawning of a new era; but we'll probably witness the same-old Sacramento antics with a small uptick in wins.
The centerpiece of the team, for better or worse, is DeMarcus Cousins. He's an NBA argument waiting to happen because man fans love his game and don't mind his goofy nature, but he's hated in other circles for his awful shot selection, his turnovers, and his atrocious defense. In the modern game, defense is extremely important for NBA centers because they're the last line of defense at the most efficient spot on the floor against all the quick and skilled perimeter players populating the league. Cousins is a lazy defender who sometimes doesn't even run back on defense, and can be killed in pick-and-rolls. With him clanging stupid 15-footers off the rim and being a glaring negative on defense, despite the rebounds, it's a wonder why anyone would think of him as a significantly positive force. Yet he's a large low post scorer who puts up a lot of points and rebounds at very high levels. He reminds people of the hulking behemoths who used to control the game on both ends of the court but without any of the modern advancements in help defense and picking the right shots. Some fans romanticize the low-post scoring center, and with so few candidates right now Cousins' value is being inflated.
Cousins would be an effective scorer if he controlled his shot selection, however. Within ten feet of the basket, he shot around 54% last season and he picks up a lot of fouls. If he only used his jump shot as a weapon to keep the defenses honest or only when very open he could be a decently efficient scorer. But he's still not especially dominant. At the rim he shoots from the high 50's to the low 60's in field-goal percentage which is pretty good for an average player but not for a huge center. He gets his shot blocked often, and he's not very athletic. To think of his as the next Shaq or anywhere close is deluded. Using Synergy and looking at every player with at least 200 post plays, he ranks near the bottom in points per play. Given the concerns about his maturity level, there's an obvious comparison: he's the next Zach Randolph. He can score a lot and rebound at a high level, but he's not going to be a game-changing cornerstone piece for a franchise.
Player
|
% Time
posting
|
Total post-ups
|
Points per play
|
Rank
|
Kobe Bryant
|
13.1
|
281
|
1.05
|
5
|
Kevin Durant
|
10.4
|
247
|
1.04
|
7
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
25.8
|
227
|
1.02
|
9
|
Marc Gasol
|
36.8
|
524
|
0.96
|
15
|
David Lee
|
18.5
|
287
|
0.95
|
18
|
David West
|
40.5
|
661
|
0.95
|
18
|
LaMarcus Aldridge
|
33.7
|
540
|
0.94
|
22
|
Jason Thompson
|
23.1
|
214
|
0.94
|
22
|
Tim Duncan
|
28.5
|
474
|
0.93
|
28
|
Kevin Garnett
|
31.9
|
361
|
0.92
|
33
|
Carmelo Anthony
|
20.8
|
470
|
0.92
|
33
|
Amare Stoudemire*
|
35.9
|
142
|
0.92
|
33
|
Brook Lopez
|
28.7
|
445
|
0.91
|
40
|
Al Jefferson
|
45.7
|
655
|
0.89
|
44
|
LeBron James
|
12.9
|
308
|
0.89
|
44
|
Blake Griffin
|
35.2
|
533
|
0.88
|
48
|
Carl Landry
|
27.0
|
263
|
0.88
|
48
|
Pau Gasol
|
24.2
|
205
|
0.87
|
55
|
Jermaine O'Neal
|
44.0
|
218
|
0.87
|
55
|
Luis Scola
|
18.0
|
208
|
0.86
|
61
|
Paul Millsap
|
21.9
|
258
|
0.85
|
66
|
Al Horford
|
23.4
|
327
|
0.85
|
66
|
Joe Johnson
|
15.1
|
206
|
0.84
|
72
|
Nikola Pekovic
|
40.9
|
399
|
0.84
|
72
|
Carlos Boozer
|
33.4
|
547
|
0.84
|
72
|
Zach Randolph
|
45.8
|
725
|
0.83
|
77
|
Rudy Gay
|
13.0
|
210
|
0.83
|
77
|
Roy Hibbert
|
47.5
|
681
|
0.83
|
77
|
Emeka Okafor
|
28.7
|
250
|
0.83
|
77
|
Nene Hilario
|
39.9
|
339
|
0.82
|
84
|
Derrick Favors
|
28.5
|
230
|
0.82
|
84
|
DeMarcus Cousins
|
24.9
|
358
|
0.81
|
90
|
Robin Lopez
|
26.8
|
244
|
0.81
|
90
|
Greg Monroe
|
27.9
|
405
|
0.78
|
106
|
Tristan Thompson
|
20.3
|
211
|
0.78
|
106
|
Chris Kaman
|
27.3
|
205
|
0.75
|
117
|
Kevin Seraphin
|
40.7
|
361
|
0.75
|
117
|
Dwight Howard
|
45.2
|
649
|
0.74
|
121
|
Josh Smith
|
20.1
|
335
|
0.74
|
121
|
JJ Hickson
|
19.8
|
200
|
0.73
|
125
|
Nikola Vucevic
|
19.4
|
210
|
0.68
|
142
|
Per Synergy Sports all players in 2013 with at least 200 post-up plays.
*Amare didn't have enough attempts to quality but I included him anyway for the combination of his efficiency and his high number of post-ups given his low amount of minutes.
Thankfully, the Kings traded for a "pure" point guard and now have a good point guard rotation of passers for a different brand of team. When a relatively unknown player surprises everyone, we focus on his strengths and don't criticize the weaknesses strongly because we had low expectations. Vasquez is a poor shooter and an over-matched defender. But because of his passing skills he's a manageable starter for many NBA teams. An assist rate of 44% (assisting on 44% of his teammates shots) is extremely high and only bested by a few modern point guards.
With Tyreke Evans gone, there's an opening the backcourt for a high scorer, and the Kings assume they found the answer in Ben McLemore, although I have my doubts since he had a low usage rate in college and has problems creating his own shot. He's athletic, but he doesn't really play athletic. If the NBA was like the combine then athletes like Joe Alexander and Ryan Hollins would be stars. Jimmer Fredette and Marcus Thornton will likely pick up a lot of time at shooting guard. Jimmer will need to reinvent himself like Redick if he wants more playing time because his defense and lack of a position is limiting his utility. Since he'll be coming off the bench next to the Lilliputian Isaiah Thomas, the backcourt could be an open invitation for the other team to score. But he's one of the best pick and roll guards in the league.
The roster for Sacramento reads like an island of misfit toys, from seven-foot seven year-old Cousins to tiny point guard Thomas. Chuck Hayes is another such misfit.
He's arguably the shortest center, well, ever. What makes this strange is that he derives his value from defense, where height is one of the most important determinates. If the league were offense only, the average height would plummet to allow more short, quick ballhandling wizards. Yet Synergy found he allowed only 0.73 points per possession in the post, one of the lower rates in the league, even though he's a defensive specialist you use for high scoring big men in the post. He's slipped on rebounds in recent seasons, but he remains at a decent level for a frontcourt player despite his size. He's also added some offensive skill to his game like an improved jump shot and a surprising passing ability.
Joining Hayes under the line "you must be this tall to ride this ride" is Carl Landry, another Houston product who was overlooked because of his size. Unlike Hayes, he's a bad defender, which has kept him from larger roles despite scoring very well on post-ups and with range out to 20 feet. He can score near 18 points per 36 minutes with respectable rebounding numbers, but he's out with a torn hip flexor for half the season. Jason Thompson will receive a lot of his minutes. He's fairly unremarkable with size that hasn't translated to defense and mediocre efficiency. Yet he started 81 games last season. But if the Kings want defense, they can plug in Mbah a Moute, a true misfit toy. He can guard a few positions and has the frame of a small forward, but his lack of shooting limits him to more duty at power forward. Every respectable defensive measure from Synergy to RAPM saw him as a very good defender (though there are few useful defensive metrics.) With the horrific depth at small forward he could still find playing time there because otherwise John Salmons and Travis Outlaw are the options. The emphasis on shooting has rocketed up the three-point attempts in the league, but it has made it difficult for talented and intriguing perimeter players who can't shoot like Mbah a Moute. With how terrible the Kings were on defense last season, they'll need him.
Shaq is apparently the mentor Cousins right now. I've been trying to reason a way for this development to be a good sign for his future as a player; it's been difficult. I can surmise Cousins has seen enough from serious men in suits telling him to behave, and a lesson from a goofy figure with a legendary NBA career might be more effective. But Cousins, as I've said, is Zach Randolph 2.0, and at best he'll just be an upgraded version of Randolph: a little bigger with some skillful passing to keep himself from collapsing into a black hole. Defense is where he's going to lose a lot of his value, even if he curbs most of his stupid jumpers. There's some offensive talent here, from Vasquez to Isaiah, but the wing cabinet is bare and there's no reason to expect major improvements on defense. They'll likely be a little better due to the age of some of their key players, but they're a long way from assembling a good team.
Random prediction: Cousins manages to have an empty 20-10 season in a banner year for the arbitrary stat as Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, and a couple others join him.
Win/loss prediction: 32-50
Los Angeles Lakers
After a train wreck of a season and a giant whiff in free agency letting Howard pass to another team in the same conference, panic should be the reaction in Lakerland but the fanbase has been so spoiled in recent seasons the thinking is more about waiting for Kobe to come back and magically fix the team before signing a superstar during the next free agency period. For any other franchise this would be a death sentence: you go all-in with a group of players likely on their way to the Hall of Fame, yet you barely make the playoffs, your signature player tears his Achilles, one star is approaching 40 and looks like it, another star suffered the worst season of his career, the center of the future in his prime leaves the team, and you have little in the way of prospects since you unloaded some of them (like all-star center Bynum) for the guy who just left you. The story of the season has been partially warped by the outright hatred of Howard, but once he rounded into shape after health problems the defense was respectable enough that their disappointing offense could lead them to steal a last second playoff spot. What's remarkable is how bad their defense was without Howard -- and they've just replaced him with Chris Kaman.
Even with all the problems faced last season, the combination of players remains enticing on offense. Pau Gasol and Nash should be a dynamic pair, but having both healthy and playing well is unlikely. Pau is has some of the best tools for aging well -- height, long arms, generally injury free for his career, relies on skill, passing won't deteriorate, has a usable jump shot -- so I can't imagine we've seen the last of his great seasons. With Howard in the middle, playing out of position hurt his game, but it goes beyond a simple positional flux. Pau shot 37% on long two-pointers, per Hoopdata, while his career average is somewhere in the mid-40's. He got to the rim less often than usual, not a surprise, but he was still an effective finisher. But from the awkward 3 to 9 foot distance he slumped to 38%, the range of a lot of post-up shots. Next to Howard, via NBAWOWY, Pau Gasol's points per play went from 1.07 to 0.92 due to playing further from the basket with roughly the same volume of shots per play (for another metric, his TS% went from 53.0 to 48.9.) Pau should have a bounce-back season, but he won't be able to save the Lakers on defense.
Steve Nash left his game in Phoenix, but we really should have seen that coming. After Nash somehow had yet another productive season with the Suns, nearly guiding a paltry cast to the playoffs, we expected great things from him with other stars. Alas, age finally caught up with him, and we should probably give the medical staff of Phoenix a medal. Using b-ref's ages, there are so few players who have even played a 38 years or older that a decline was extremely likely. The only people with very productive seasons at that advanced age are Kareem, Karl Malone, Stockton, and arguably Sabonis. Parish and Reggie Miller were also pretty good, while Michael Jordan scored a lot of points for someone his age (although inefficiently.) Oddly enough, Nash is ranked ninth out of 29 in PER for combined seasons past age 38, even if it was a disappointment. Age causes an exponential decline rate with players near 40, so the list of players at 39 or older is even shorter. In fact, there are only 13 players who played at least 1000 minutes at that age and beyond. Three of them just retired -- Kidd, Kurt Thomas, and Grant Hill -- and we're expecting Nash to be productive when most players just hang on for dear life. Given his late blooming, some may have assumed Nash would age like Stockton, but Nash has always had injury concerns while Stockton was one of the most durable players ever. Referring to the table below, there are a few apparent criteria to playing well at an advanced age: skill, size, and health. If you don't have size, you need a lot of skill (Steve has that in spades.) However, the only player with a history of injuries is Sabonis, but as a giant yet skilled center he's not a representative for Nash.
Player........................
|
Season
|
Age
|
Minutes
|
Ast%
|
Reb%
|
Usage%
|
TS%
|
PER
|
John Stockton
|
2003
|
40
|
2275
|
46.4
|
5.4
|
19.2
|
57.7
|
21.0
|
Karl Malone
|
2004
|
40
|
1373
|
19.1
|
15.1
|
19.7
|
55.5
|
17.8
|
Robert Parish
|
1994
|
40
|
1987
|
6.3
|
15.4
|
20.2
|
53.0
|
16.1
|
Karl Malone
|
2003
|
39
|
2936
|
24.4
|
13.0
|
27.8
|
53.4
|
21.7
|
John Stockton
|
2002
|
39
|
2566
|
46.3
|
6.2
|
19.8
|
60.1
|
21.9
|
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
|
1987
|
39
|
2441
|
11.6
|
11.9
|
22.1
|
59.7
|
17.9
|
Robert Parish
|
1993
|
39
|
2146
|
4.2
|
19.5
|
20.2
|
56.5
|
19.2
|
Reggie Miller
|
2005
|
39
|
2105
|
13.3
|
4.4
|
20.8
|
58.2
|
16.6
|
Michael Jordan
|
2003
|
39
|
3031
|
21.1
|
9.7
|
28.7
|
49.1
|
19.3
|
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
|
1986
|
38
|
2629
|
15.7
|
10.3
|
26.6
|
60.3
|
22.7
|
John Stockton
|
2001
|
38
|
2397
|
48.7
|
5.9
|
18.8
|
61.0
|
22.3
|
Karl Malone
|
2002
|
38
|
3040
|
21.8
|
13.6
|
28.8
|
53.2
|
21.1
|
Reggie Miller
|
2004
|
38
|
2254
|
19.1
|
4.9
|
15.4
|
60.0
|
16.1
|
Robert Parish
|
1992
|
38
|
2285
|
4.4
|
17.0
|
20.8
|
57.1
|
16.1
|
Hakeem Olajuwon
|
2001
|
38
|
1545
|
8.3
|
16.1
|
21.9
|
52.6
|
18.9
|
Arvydas Sabonis
|
2003
|
38
|
1209
|
19.3
|
16.7
|
19.4
|
54.9
|
20.7
|
Dikembe Mutombo
|
2005
|
38
|
1212
|
1.3
|
20.5
|
12.9
|
57.5
|
20.5
|
Michael Jordan
|
2002
|
38
|
2093
|
30.8
|
9.4
|
36.0
|
46.8
|
16.4
|
Players with a season of at least 1000 minutes and 16 PER. PER was used because its bias for usage is useful here: players who are a larger part of the offense.
As for the third star, the season begins with the infamous Achilles injury. The outlook is murky, despite what Laker fans will say. Even without the injury, due to his age there's a decent chance of a big decline. The Achilles injury is one of the most devastating for an athlete to suffer, and
it appears to have long-lasting effects. What's scary is that only one player in history has been Kobe's age at the time of the injury, Billups, yet the injury lays waste to even the 20 year-olds. Enough has been said about Kobe's season, and Kobe in general, but for a stubborn player who took plays off on defense it's worrisome what will happen defensively after the injury. With his footwork and his work ethic, he should remain a good scorer, but even in the best case scenario he's still going to miss a few games for a team lacking depth.
With the Lakers losing two starters, there's not much else besides the three stars. This is a portent as much as anything: they lost World Peace. To explain the problems the Lakers will have, consider a theoretical team with aging stars and a motley cast of uninspiring role players that rates as a slightly below average team on defense despite a former multiple DPOTY winner in the middle, who admittingly was still recovering. Then fathom how the team would do losing its best two defenders -- one the multiple DPOTY center and another a former one-time DPOTY winner who was still fairly good even in old age. Their minutes are replaced by Chris Kaman, Nick Young, and Wesley Johnson. They don't have any plus defenders left on the team, unless you count the mid-30's scoring star who is coming off an Achilles injury and was the subject of an
article highlighting his atrocious help defense. Even with a generous adjustment for the train wreck of a season and turning off the tanking factor, they rate as a wretched defensive team.
Playing for the Lakers tends to lead to a
rosier evaluation for role players. Put some of these guys on another team, and they'll disappear completely. Steve Blake is a back-up point guard at best. Jodie Meeks is a shooter who had problems finding playing time for a team that was desperate for shooting last season. Wesley Johnson has been tried by two different poor teams, and has flamed out as a prospect; and he's already 26 years old. Xavier Henry has also gone through two teams, and he's hanging onto the NBA by a thread. Robert Sacre is fourth or fifth big man and more suited to the D-league. There aren't a lot of quality NBA players left on the team anymore.
Besides the aging guards, there are a couple intriguing players. Jordan Hill was injured for much of last season, like everyone else, but he's a useful, active big man who crashes the boards hard. His quickness is theoretically useful on defense, but he doesn't commit hard enough. However, the Lakers need all the help they can get. He's also developing his long-range shot more, which could help Pau Gasol have more space down low to operate. Chris Kaman is a paltry consolation prize for losing Howard, but if you focus on his strengths he's a pretty good player. He's a fairly skilled center who can score around the basket with either hand, and he utilizes a jump shot that would be more lauded if he didn't overuse it. Somehow he shot 52% from 16 to 23 feet last season, but he's normally in the mid-40's; he's an underrated shooter at this point. He's above average on the defensive glass (his tendency to float to the perimeter for jumpers sinks his offensive rebound rate) and he can still block shots, but he's not the most agile of defenders. Even with his post skills, he's not a dominating scorer, as his percentages have usually been underwhelming, and he's turnover-prone to boot.
As for the other major addition ... I have one theory. The criticism for Kobe Bryant is sometimes too harsh, and other fans like to pounce on Kobe for any wild shot. Nick Young will deflect attention and make Kobe's shot's look highly selective by comparison. He's the archetypal volume shooter who doesn't add anything else of value: he doesn't rebound, make plays for others, defend, etc. He doesn't shoot particularly well, so he's selfishly taking a larger part of the offense than he deserves. I'm not sure why the Lakers would think this was the ideal companion for the aging, recovering Kobe at SF, but they were probably afraid they would lack a scoring punch due to the Achilles injury. That's the sort of thinking a franchise has for trying to keep the status quo while competing for the playoffs and a higher seeding, but the Lakers should be thinking of rebuilding and revamping the roster. They cannot compete this year, so what are they trying to do? They should be loading up on young talent, not filling in gaps with veterans who had problems contributing to mediocre teams. Nick Young is a microcosm of the Lakers front office and roster right now: overly confident but lacking the talent needed to justify it.
Any objective look at the Lakers has to start with the team losing the best center of the past few years and relying on aging stars plagued by injuries and supported by a cast one step away from the D-league. Criticize Howard all you want for his robotic post game, but he typically averages 18-20 points on a high field-goal percentage, while Kaman scores less points on vastly worse efficiency ... and is a universe away on defense. This is an awkward transition season, and the defense could get ugly. As much as the Lakers love free agency, this could be the year to focus on the draft lottery.
Random prediction: Kobe misses a large number of games and is rusty when coming back, but he's voted onto the starters for the all-star team anyway.
Win/loss prediction: 32-50
Denver Nuggets
My projection has Denver missing the playoffs by a huge amount after a season in which they won 57 games, and I feel I have to defend the prediction. As has been argued, only five teams in NBA history have gone from 57 games to missing the playoffs, so (the argument goes) Denver is unlikely to be that bad. Three of those teams had a major loss in personnel -- San Antonio lost David Robinson for almost the entire season in 1997, Cleveland lost LeBron James in 2011, the Bulls lost about everything including Jordan and Pippen -- but the other two cases of the Sonics in 1999 and Minnesota in 2005 are curious. The Sonics retained most of their players, but saw Vin Baker succumb to his personal demons and alcoholism, and the team missed the playoffs in competitive west during a weird lockout season. Minnesota had no major losses in 2005, but dipped from 58 to 44 wins. The team fell to chemistry problems and in-fighting from contract disputes, and saw the coach fired mid-season.
The fact that there are only two teams in history who went from 57 games to missing the playoffs without losing a superstar is misleading, however. First of all, during most seasons missing the playoffs was more difficult due to the smaller number of teams. And it's a competitive west with a healthy Kevin Love and a revamped Blazers bench where even 44 wins may not be enough. Denver may not have lost Michael Jordan, but two starters are gone, another starter is still out with a torn ACL, the coach has been fired, and the league's reigning Executive of the Year left for Toronto because his team didn't want to pay him (how else do you justify getting paid than winning an award for competence?) Using a historical pattern to predict the future is problematic because the circumstances are never the same and the league is a complex beast.
Denver will remain an above average offensive team, but the defense will border on a catastrophe. Simply put, they lost their two best defenders, Iggy and Koufos, along with another good defender in Corey Brewer and added Randy Foye, Nate Robinson, Darrell Arthur, and JJ Hickson. The backcourt rotation is now the six-foot Ty Lawson, the five-nine Nate Robinson, 37 year-old Andre Miller, and Foye, who rates as one of the worst defenders at shooting guard. Lawson and Nate Robinson is a combination asking for problems, and without a strong defender at shooting guard they won't receive much help. But there's also no help in the frontcourt. Faried is a popular player for his put-back dunks, but he's a poor defender who can't contend shots or help defensively. JaVale McGee inside has all the skills to be a defensive anchor like sheer size and athleticism, but he's notorious for his lack of court awareness and can kill an effective defense despite his shotblocking. Joining those two in the frontcourt is JJ Hickson. The only thing you really need to say about him is that his own team shopped him hard last season and found no bidders even with averaging a double double. He's probably the best posterboy for why box score stats are misleading. He has heavy overlap with Faried too, so the team is banking on two active big men who can't protect the rim or defend at a high level but feast off garbage baskets and put-back dunks.
Speaking of McGee, the Koufos trade was one of the most bewildering in recent seasons. He was basically traded so his coach would be forced to start him, like some bizarro version of Moneyball, and I imagine the front office still believes there's a lot of potential left. However, Koufos is actually a year younger, and scored efficiently inside while playing above average defense. To trade a capable starting center who was only 23 years-old who was well-rounded -- decent scorer, good post defender, smart help defender, rebounded well -- for an older bench player who has struggled since coming off an Achilles injury is absurd. Darrell is a decent defender who's added a better midrange shot to his game, but he's obviously the inferior player in the trade and appears like a poor fit and may not even play much.
To some people, starting Koufos over McGee was a coaching error by guys too rooted in the "traditional" viewpoint of basketball and ignoring advanced stats, but Koufos was actually the best advanced stats guy. Once again, McGee's team played worse when he was on the court, and this wasn't just because he played with the bench units. Comparing five man units where the only difference is McGee or Koufos, and only looking at lineups with at least 25 minutes, overall the team plays better offense
and defense with Koufos in the middle. The lineup with the most minutes is the best example here: Lawson-Iguodala-Gallinari-Faried has their four best non-center players with an insanely fast point guard, a defensive stopper, a good one-on-one scorer, and their energy power forward. They were better on offense by a significant amount (3 points per 100 possessions is a large difference on a team-wide level, like the difference between the Spurs' offense and the Hornets'.) However, their defense dived off a cliff with McGee in the middle -- a defensive rating of 117 would be bad even for the Bobcats. There were only two lineups for both offense and defense where the unit did better with McGee, and the bench argument here goes against him; McGee coming off the bench should, on average, face worse players.
|
McGee
|
Koufos
|
Four-man units ......................................................
|
Mins.
|
Team ORtg
|
Team DRtg
|
Mins.
|
+ORtg
|
+DRtg
|
A.Miller-Iguodala-Brewer-Chandler
|
139
|
97
|
91
|
21
|
24
|
11
|
Lawson-Iguodala-Gallinari-Faried
|
108
|
107
|
117
|
795
|
3
|
-14
|
Lawson-Iguodala-Brewer-Chandler
|
46
|
124
|
116
|
33
|
-13
|
-21
|
Lawson-A.Miller-Brewer-Faried
|
37
|
109
|
136
|
33
|
13
|
-11
|
Lawson-A.Miller-Brewer-Gallinari
|
36
|
105
|
108
|
28
|
6
|
-13
|
Lawson-Iguodala-Brewer-Gallinari
|
32
|
122
|
109
|
42
|
-14
|
-14
|
Lawson-A.Miller-Iguodala-Gallinari
|
30
|
122
|
120
|
47
|
2
|
-11
|
Lawson-Iguodala-Brewer-Faried
|
29
|
113
|
84
|
49
|
16
|
29
|
Total
|
|
4.4
|
-8.8
|
Points per 100 possessions (source: 82games.com)
Note: a negative +DRtg means the defense improved
Total is an average difference weighted by sqrt(McGee mins*Koufos mins)
Even though Koufos is out of the way, JaVale is unlikely to play major minutes for various reasons like a high foul rate. Yet Mozgov isn't good enough to play full-time backup center, leaving many center minutes to Faried and Hickson, who rate especially bad on defense when in the middle. Unless there are major changes, this projects as an awful defensive team. Many projection systems can't see this, however, because Koufos' defense is too subtle to be picked up by box score metrics (while McGee blocks shots but misses rotations) and Iguodala was arguably the best wing defender last season but underrated by most basic stats. xRAPM (mix of box-score stats and adj. plus/minus) had Iguodala as the second best perimeter wing defender at +3.3, just behind Tony Allen, while "pure" RAPM had him at +3.5 and fourth overall for wing players. Given his raw +4.4 difference on defense (when on the court Denver's opponents scored 104 points per 100 possessions and when off 108.5) and his great Synergy rating at 0.80 points per possession allowed even with shaky team defense behind him, there's little doubt he's a fantastic defender. Foye, however, is probably in the bottom 20th percentage of defense for shooting guards, and he's essentially replacing Iggy's minutes.
To make matters worse, Gallinari suffered a major injury and will miss a large chunk of the season. Luckily, the injury is less severe than previously thought, but he's still going to miss games and he may take some time to recover. And he already typically misses a few games a season. He's known as a shooter, but he's actually a better slasher and picks up a high rate of fouls. He's a pretty good defender too as one of the biggest wing players when they're not playing smallball. But he shouldn't be pressed into service versus the best wing scorers every night. Wilson Chandler is probably the best option for that, and he'll hopefully receive more playing time as a glue guy to soak up minutes from multiple positions. Nate Robinson is a useful spark plug off the bench to provide instant scoring along with an underrated good outside shot, but it's a poor fit on a team with two point guards and poor defenders at shooting guard. Fournier, who's probably the future for the team at shooting guard, flashed a lot of potential late in the season as a lithe, craft offensive player with range. If Denver is to make the playoffs, it could be on the offensive attack of Lawson-Fournier-Gallinari.
After a successful regular season, the team crashed and burned in the playoffs, then drastically changed the team including the front office. In truth, Denver just got unlucky -- the Warriors are a much stronger team with Bogut in the middle, and for whatever reason people underplayed the loss of Gallinari. I'm curious as to what the thinking was this off-season with the changes. They fired George Karl for a first round loss, but if they really wanted to learn from their mistakes wouldn't it be defense? Their backcourt now has no way of stopping Curry. Losing Karl could also hurt their offense, which was intricately constructed to work without spacing with transition attacks (Iguodala was one of the best in the league at this, by the way) and a heavy amount of cuts and drives to the basket on offense. This is where having an intelligent player like Koufos over McGee was needed. Expect a pretty good offense but a putrid defense while bowing out of the playoffs in the competitive west.
Random prediction: JaVale McGee loses his starting job to JJ Hickson for a couple weeks so his coach can recover some sanity.
Win/loss prediction: 33-49
Utah Jazz
On paper, the trade for Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson, and Brandon Rush while letting Jefferson and Millsap walk would mean the front office is being controlled by a blind poodle, but it's strangely a few steps in the right direction as they've decided to rebuild and focus on their young guys. The Millsap-Jefferson core was only going to lead to a first round exit at best, while they hampered the development of Favors and Kanter. They also received a bevy of draft picks including unprotected first round picks in 2014 and 2017. That was the prize for picking up the bloated contracts of Biedrins and Jefferson. The Warriors are everyone's favorite team, but those first round picks have a chance of netting great players at a low cost. However, the contracts they absorbed are $24 million, which is a steep price for draft picks. Nevertheless, the Jazz are opening up a new phase, and fans will no longer have to worry about the starters losing the lead the bench gave them.
The joke about the bench outplaying the starters isn't a joke -- it really happened. The Jazz were the only team where both the top lineup and the next three lineups combined (by minutes played) were out played by the rest of the team, essentially meaning the bench. The most common Jazz lineup was Tinsley-Foye-Marvin Williams-Millsap-Jefferson, who were outscored by 8.1 points per 100 possessions in 453.8 minutes. The next three most common lineups, which did not feature Kanter or Favors, was outscored on average by 6.3 points per 100 possessions. Every other lineup? They outscored the opposition by 2.7 per 100 possessions. Referring to the chart below, this was the largest disparity in the league. (Quick note: Toronto led the league due to the Bargnani effect off the bench, the Hawks had a surprisingly strong starting lineup but a thin bench, and it's no surprise to see the Pacers that high. The Thunder had the fifth lowest disparity, but a large part of this is how much better they were with Nick Collison and how much worse they were with Perkins.)
(Stats from basketball-reference)
The Jazz are now building around Hayward-Favors-Kanter, and a few other young players. I emphasis fit a lot in discussing teams, but this is one where I'm actually positive about the fit of their key players. In the modern NBA, frontcourt defensive is extremely important and a liability there can be a glaring issue. Favors, however, is already a very good defender with monstrous potential; it wouldn't be surprising if he became a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. With a 7' 4" wingspan and a 9' 2" standing reach,
he's actually slightly above average for size for centers, much less power forwards, and with his quickness and timing he's good enough to defend the perimeter and control the paint. Enes Kanter, meanwhile, has the wider, classical build for a center, and also possesses the requisite size for his position. He's not a great help defender, but that's why Favors is the perfect frontcourt mate, and with his strength he's a good post defender, leaving the skinnier Favors to roam and cause havoc. Offensively, the fit isn't as strong because Favors' midrange shot needs work, but as frontcourt players it's not a devastating problem. Favors does most of his damage attacking the offensive glass, but Kanter has a fine post game and his midrange jumper has been in the mid-40's in percentage. Since Kanter and Favors were only 20 and 21 years-old, respectively, last season, the future is bright inside.
Elsewhere, the most promising player is Gordon Hayward, a swingman who scores at a decent rate and can hit three's well or get to the rim where he's an athletic finisher. He's made a lot of progress as a player, but he'll need to take another leap forward as a player by taking over a larger part of the offense while maintaining his efficiency with Al Jefferson and Millsap gone. His defense is pretty good, depending on the match-up, but he's not out on the court for anything other than scoring. He's still a young player, however, and his age matches well with the rest of the roster.
Joining Hayward on the wings is Alec Burks, not to be confused with rookie point guard Trey Burke. Burks has floated between point guard and shooting guard, but with a tremendous wingspan he definitely has enough size to play the 2. He has some of the tools and desire to be the perimeter stopper, but he has a ways to go; and his offensive game is still developing, as his outside shot floated around the league average and he's struggled scoring efficiently in general. But again, given his age, there's a healthy chance he can be a very good player. Trey Burke, the rookie point guard, is strong in the pick and roll, suggesting a good translation to the modern NBA, but he has size concerns. He's six foot even, around the size of Allen Iverson and Mike Conley Jr., but doesn't have an elite level athleticism or size to make up for his height. The canary in the coalmine will be his FG% inside of three feet -- if, like other short point guards who couldn't make it, he has a terrible percentage like under 52%, it's an indication the NBA is too large for him to succeed. A player can make up some ground with outside shooting and other skills, but if he's the point guard of the future he'll need to be effective inside to pressure the defense.
Adding to their impressive young core are slam dunk champion Jeremy Evans, 3/D glue guy Brandon Bush, and the gigantic Rudy Gobert. Jeremy Evans has put up impressive stats in limited minutes for multiple years now, and as Amir Johnson has taught us this can translate well for a larger gig, especially when the player is so young. He doesn't have a refined offensive game, but he has the athleticism to play power forward and block shots at an elite rate while crashing the boards. Brandon Rush was just a throw-in, but he's still young enough to contribute when the younger core develops in a couple years if the Jazz decide to keep him. Gobert is a huge player. NBA players are rarely seven-feet tall without shoes or inflation. Most guys listed at seven-feet are around 6' 11". Gobert, however, measured at 7' 0.5" without shoes, along with the biggest wingspan officially measured at the draft: 7' 8.5". He'll have the highest standing reach and wingspan of any active player, and only two other active players are 7' or over without shoes (Aaron Gray and Thabeet.) That's why draft experts went nuts for him despite a lack of playing time versus quality competition. The Darko saga told us to be wary of international guys who haven't played against quality competition even with intriguing physical skills, but in the late lottery it was a worthy gamble.
With how the bench outplayed the starters in 2013, one would be tempted to pick the Jazz for the playoffs, but now they have the opposite problem: their bench is much weaker and Biedrins is now in their frontcourt rotation. They'll rely on rookies and young players as much as almost any team in the league, and as criticized as Jefferson was his frontcourt partner Millsap was obviously a positive force on the team. The team may compete for one of the playoff spots, but that seems like a longshot after an off-season where Minnesota looks healthier and the Blazers upgraded their bench. But Utah isn't aiming to peak in 2014. They've rebuilt for the near future, and would probably rather pick up another lottery pick in a loaded draft. And if rookie point guard is a plus starter, they'll have one of the most complete young cores in the NBA.
Random prediction: Favors gets some traction for a defensive team after averaging 2.4 blocks, while Kanter has two 30-20 games late in the season.
Win/loss prediction: 35-47
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland's in a tricky situation trying to build for the future around young guys like Lillard while keeping Aldridge happy enough by winning so he doesn't bolt for another team. While this is the draft to tank for, the Blazers are firmly in playoffs-or-bust mode, but thankfully the GM Neil Olshey has proven himself adept at swinging multiple positive deals to improve the team without killing the long-term potential with a cap-killing contract. The Blazers had part of a solid team, but Hickson should never be a starting NBA center and the bench was dreadful. Even replacing some of those guys with slightly below average players would cause a large uptick in wins.
The core of the team is why Portland should feel optimistic, though fans won't be because they got burned with Roy and Oden. They were one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, which trends with with winning. Lillard, Matthews, and Batum are all above average shooters from outside with Lillard having a lot of shooting potential to fill and Batum being high volume. Aldridge is one of the best midrange shooters in the league, and unlike Bosh and similar players he takes a lot of contested shots. Matthews is a plus defender with tenacity, and he separates himself from many role players by being able to drive and attack the rim. People thought Batum was going to be a Prince-like defender thanks to his length, but he has some poor instincts and his defensive metrics have always been disappointing. However, he's a better scorer than people projected. Aldridge is the all-star frontcourt player who can take on a lot of shots while rarely turning the ball over. Lillard should be a much better player with more help on the bench -- he had too many difficult shots when no one else could create, and shooting is his biggest strength, which ages well. This is a core that fits well with excellent spacing and no weird chemistry issues, and the only hole on defense was the rookie point guard, who due to his size should be fine once he learns the ropes.
With the upgrade virtually everywhere else, this is going to be a much better team and they have a good chance at making the playoffs. For instance, JJ Hickson was cast as a starting center for some reason even though he was 6' 9" at best and offered no rim protection. As a result, the Blazers were one of the worst teams at defending shots inside, and the rookie Meyers Leonard was no help off the bench. JJ Hickson can pick up rebounds and points at a high level, but
he's one of the most overrated players according to RAPM. The Blazers desperately tried to unload him during the season, but no one bit. If only they tried trading him to Denver at the right time: Koufos was traded for Darrel Arthur, while Denver signed JJ Hickson in the off-season.
Instead the Blazers picked up another young center to hold down the fort. Robin Lopez is Brook Lopez's twin brother, and as we learned from the Morris brothers that means he's somehow a completely different player. He's without the scoring punch of Brook, but he shares the same aversion to defensive rebounds. He's a very good offensive rebounder, however, and he's a marginally better defender at this point. But the Blazers just wanted some competence in the middle and someone legitimately seven feet tall. He's still young, and he offers a bit of resistance inside.
The bench has undergone a complete overhaul. Luke Babbitt and Maynor left, along with the jetsam and floatsam of Nolan Smith, Ronnie Price, Sasha Pavlovic, and Jared Jeffries. To replace their minutes, the Blazers had a number of good additions like Dorell Wright. Wright led the NBA in three-pointers made and attempted in 2011. He was actually drafted out of high school by Miami one year after they took Wade, and he was lost in the free agency, LeBron shuffle of 2010. Instead of holding onto a young shooter who they had for his entire career, the Heat let him go and kept onto the older and less useful James Jones (mostly because Wright wanted more money.) I say this because he's exactly what the Heat need: a high volume shooter outside the arc who can play as a smallball four, and he's one of the best rebounders at small forward in the game, which was a weakness for Miami. If the Blazers choose to do so, he could spend a lot of minutes at the 4 with Aldridge in the middle. It would be an electric offensive unit, and it's a huge upgrade at both bench forward positions where Portland previously was getting terrible production. Thomas Robinson joins him in the frontcourt as a player who mostly through no fault of his own has bounced around in the league after being a coveted prospect. Backing up Aldridge, they won't ask him to play heavy minutes or play like a star, which could help him in just trying to find his own niche as a player.
The guard slots were updated with veteran Mo Williams and rookie CJ McCollum. Mo Williams is too poor a defender to start, but off the bench for a point guard who can play huge minutes it's not a problem. While McCollum recovers from his foot injury there will be a lot of lineups with both Lillard and Williams. Since Williams can either play point or spot-up off the ball, he'll fit well enough. McCollum sounds like a carbon copy of Lillard right down to being senior combo guards from mid-major schools. He's definitely on the small side for a shooting guard, even his 6' 6" wingspan. However, two point guard units are pretty common in the league now, and his shooting skills alone are enough to put him on the floor.
As Portland is my home team, I'm always wary of giving predictions or discussing too much about the future of the team. Call it superstition born from a rocky period that included the Jail-Blazers and the implosion of the Roy-Oden era. But I'll defend the Blazers for having a rich history and a healthy, supportive fanbase. They had one of the most celebrated title runs in sports history, and they have the record for most playoff appearances in a row in modern history with 21 years in a row -- not the Celtics (19 years), not the Lakers (16), not the Bulls (14) nor the Jazz (20) nor the Spurs (16). Only the 76ers made the playoff more consecutively, but that dates back partly to their time in Syracuse as the Nationals starting in 1950 before the implementation of the shot clock. In trying to entice Aldridge to stay with the organization, they'll push hard for the playoffs and they should have a fair shot at making them. Fingers crossed, a high-performing offense combined with a leap from Lillard or a surprising year from McCollum and a adequate defense will make this possible.
Random prediction: the Blazers will break the old record for three-point attempts, 2284, but will still be second behind the Rockets for this season.
Win/loss prediction: 41-41
Dallas Mavericks
After whiffing on major free agents, Dallas has tried to himself themselves on the consolation prizes of Monta "Have It All" Ellis, Calderon, and Dalembert. Luckily, the Mavericks should be better simply by having a healthier season from Dirk Nowitzki. Only a couple years away from their title, Mark Cuban let the champions disassemble, but it's worth nothing he was mostly right on the players he let go. Tyson Chandler suffered a disappointing season after receiving the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Mavericks were worried his health wouldn't hold up -- and they were right. While there's an argument to be made for keeping the team together even with age and health problems to try it again next season, another credible path is a partial rebuild by luring big-name free agents to a recently successful organization. Unfortunately, Deron Williams chose the Nets, languishing there before Garnett/Pierce were sent to make them contenders, and Howard went to the Lakers for a disastrous campaign. 2013 was the worst case scenario, lacking another star to pair with Dirk, who missed several games, and entering another summer where they couldn't add any big names. Attached to a loyal Nowitzki with his best years behind him and the clock ticking on his body, the Mavericks felt they owed him a competitive season and surrounded him with the best players they could find.
...Yet they've invested a lot of capital into a backcourt of Ellis and Calderon. Ellis will make 8 to 9 million dollars a year until 2016, while Calderon will make 7 to 8 million dollars until 2017. For a team with a lot of cap space next summer (again), those moves for two guards each around 30 years old will not put the team into contention and they will not be positive building blocks for the future. They're stopgagp solutions and hamper the long-term flexibility of the team. Ellis is the prototypical inefficient gunner who uses a high number of his team's possessions without the accuracy or playmaking that would justify the ballhogging. Once upon a time, he was an efficient young guard on a Warriors team, but opened up his game to include a bevy of jump shots, which he's poor at making. He likes to take around 4 three-pointers a game even though his career average is 31.8%. For most midrange chuckers, the extra point for taking it behind the line makes for a worthy trade, but not Ellis; his career three-point percentage translates to a 47.7 TS%, while his career TS% is 52.7 and his lowest for a full season is 49.3. He excels at driving to the rim where he finishes well despite his size, but he takes too many jump shots, even when he was a younger, more efficient player with the Warriors. There's also no convincing him to change his shot selection, even though it might mean he takes more midrange shots than Nowitzki.
If Monta's aggressiveness was combined with Jose Calderon's accuracy, then everyone would be applauding the move. (Only player that sounds like: Stephen Curry?) Unfortunately, this is not the case. While Jose Calderon is an efficiency maven who set the record for free-throw percentage, has led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio three times going toe-to-toe with Chris Paul, and regularly flirts with a 50-40-90 season, he doesn't have a Steve Nash-ian effect on the offense.
As I've written about before, his teams have generally not missed him when he didn't play. Coupled with some of the worst defense at his position, and the 32 year-old point guard is probably not worth his long-term contract. However, even if a team falls in love with one of the best pure shooters and a steady hand running the offense, placing him next to Ellis is awkward. Neither can guard top players, and people mentioning Ellis' superb Synergy defensive stats need some context: overall he was tops among shooting guards with a large number of possessions, but this was because of a pick-and-roll defense that ranked 7th overall, thanks to Larry Sanders, while his isolation numbers ranked 168th. The decision to nab Calderon on its own isn't a bad one -- a Dirk and Calderon play is a nightmare for the defense, and Calderon's passivity is okay because he won't steal shots from Dirk.
Nowitzki, by the way, is hoping to recover from his worst season since Shaq's first title. Dealing with injuries, he didn't slump with his shooting -- he was over 50% from the three standard locations of 3-9 feet, 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet. His shooting percentage at the rim was as strong as ever, and he was over 40 percent from outside the arc. But he shot less often than usual, and went to the line for what was by far his lowest rate in his career: 0.265 free throw attempts per field goal, while his previous low was 0.311 back in 2000. It was also his lowest free-throw percentage in a decade, and as a result his efficiency was good but not spectacular even with less shots. He should bounce back this season, but an aging Nowitzki will be an interesting trend to watch. As a seven-foot jump shooter who specializes with a rainbow fallaway, he's a unique scorer who should retain his value even as an old man. There are few reasons to expect him to suddenly become such a liability in one area that he'll lose his status as an elite player. For whatever his reason (maybe from the perception that stems from him being a white European jump shooter), people assume he's a bad defensive player, but there's been no objective evidence to suggest otherwise.
Some may call him a liability on the boards, but that's simply false: for his career his defensive rebound rate's at 21.9. Last season his defensive rebounding was tied for 20th best among power forwards out of 78 players, per ESPN, at 21.5. He was tied with noted rebounders Chris Anderson, Elton Brand, and Blake Griffin. His overall rebounding numbers are lower because of offensive rebounding, which is at very low levels for a frontcourt player simply because he's a perimeter scorer. In fact, his work in spacing the floor makes it easier for other players to crash the boards. He's also a surprisingly good post defender and sound help defender. He's unremarkable but solid on defense, but coupled with his offense he's (obviously) a special player.
Joining him in the frontcourt is Samuel Dalembert, the new Mavericks player in their musical game of chairs at center. They've gone from Raef LaFrentz to Shawn Bradley, Erick Dampier, DaSagana Diop, Brendan Haywood, Tyson Chandler, Chris Kaman, and Samuel Dalembert at center over the past decade, with Dirk getting a few starts there as well. Dalembert would seem like an excellent defensive player at first glance, with high block and rebound rates, but he doesn't have the best instincts and is probably high on the all-time list for goaltending. He's a lukewarm defensive presence, not good enough to counter his poor offensive skills, but at least he's durable.
After a disastrous time spent in Miami trying to be a first option, Marion reinvented himself as more of a role player in later stints and has found success in Dallas winning a title. Years ago, people were dubious he'd age well because he was reliant on athleticism, but length doesn't age and his feet have remained quick, as he still defends point guards. The importance of his versatility is hard to quantify but it will be put to the test this season with little defensive help on the wings. Nash became respected in Phoenix after leading team after team to outstanding records through all odds, like Amare getting injured or Joe Johnson traded, but Marion has proven valuable too: the Suns slipped from near league average with him on defense to 26th in 2009. While there are other factors at work, his defense was excellent and his ability to endure a stretch four role while the Suns defense remained acceptable despite the lack of size and Amare at center remains underappreciated. He's even less of a shooter now, but he still cuts well to the basket; in his prime he was one of the best in the league in that facet.
Off the bench, Vince Carter, like Marion, is still a surprisingly good player in his mid-30's, which has shocked a few people. Given his size and shooting range, this makes more sense, and a player of his caliber athletically losing a step will still remain athletic. He set a personal record in three-pointers, emblematic of his evolution from star-scorer to bench weapon. He also rates as above average on defense -- he competes and has great size for a shooting guard. Brandan Wright is the other Dallas bench scoring option. He's a svelte frontcourt player who's not much of a defender -- too weak in the post, not much of a help defender -- but he scores efficiently around the basket on a decent volume, earning him an above-20 PER as one of the prime examples people have of PER's weaknesses.
The rest of the bench actually appears decent too -- each player has a hole, but that's what you'd expect of guys at the end of the bench. Devin Harris is now one of the worst defenders in the league at point, largely due to effort, but he used to be one of the ace bounds using his quickness to bottle up opposing guards. Jae Crowder has a name more suited to Justified, and he has a real shot at a legitimate NBA career, but he's hardly the young player needed to save Dallas. DeJuan Blair went from late first round steal to being unceremoniously dropped by San Antonio after he fell out of the rotation. He's one of the shining examples of players who rate exceedingly well in draft analysis by his numbers and outperform expectations in stats in their rookie years, but fall out of favor due to nuances not picked up well by box score stats. His lineups in San Antonio just did not perform well with him, despite all his rebounding. Blair's most common lineup was Parker-Neal-Green-Duncan: an all-star point guard, two great shooters, and an all-time big man in the middle. Yet they were outscored by a significant amount while he was on the court, and two other lineups substituting another big were more successful.
Lineup........................................
|
Minutes
|
Off. Rating
|
Def. Rating
|
Total
|
Parker-Neal-Green-Blair-Duncan
|
108.2
|
1.00
|
1.07
|
-0.07
|
Parker-Neal-Green-Splitter-Duncan
|
64.4
|
1.13
|
1.14
|
-0.01
|
Parker-Neal-Green-Diaw-Duncan
|
51.1
|
1.32
|
1.00
|
0.32
|
Source: 82games.com
The Mavericks are attempting to crash the playoffs after missing it for the first time in years. With Nowitzki likely healthier, they have an excellent chance at doing so even in a crowded west. But much to the chagrin of fans of tall German shooters, they've failed to provide Dirk with any young stars, and this team at their best will just be a tough out for a western conference contender. The team got lightning in the bottle in 2011 with a veteran cast of Dirk and some non-all-stars, but there's nothing to suggest that kind of magic again. They should be a fairly miserable defensive team, and even if Ellis reins in his shot selection it's extremely unlikely they hit 50 wins. With Dirk's contract ending soon, the future is unwritten in Dallas. But it might just be a slow fade to black.
Random prediction: this will be one of three all-star seasons left from Nowitzki.
Win/loss prediction: 44-38
Minnesota Timberwolves
Injuries were the story of Minnesota. They are unlikely to have the same misfortune two years in a row, but in some ways what happened was predictable. Pekovic and Rubio appear to be players who regularly miss a few games a season. They tried Brandon Roy, and it's no surprise when he only managed 5 games. Chase Budinger missed most of the season with a major knee injury, but it wasn't a rare injury. Kirilenko missed nearly 20 games, but, again, that's pretty normal given his history. The season was destroyed because of Kevin Love, who only managed 618 minutes. With Love, suddenly their offense has a consistent outside threat, a high scoring option, and elite rebounding on both sides of the court.
In fact, Love's combination of shooting and rebounding is singular. What he's doing shouldn't be possible. There are only two other elite rebounders (a TRB% above 20) in NBA history who shot a high volume of three's (at least 100.) One was Charles Barkley, and he should not have been shooting them, and the other was strangely Dennis Rodman in 1992, who only had a couple seasons shooting 70 or more three's and hit them at a low percentage. Few other players were close. Sabonis hoisted a lot of three's though it was with the shortened line. Zach Randolph had a bizarre season in New York where he decided to be an outside shooter without good results. Troy Murphy is a fairly close analogue because he was a double-double machine who shot well outside the arc, but he was a poor offensive rebounder. But there are actually two players who combined an accurate and high volume three-point shot with crashing the offensive glass: Ersan Ilyasova and Ryan Anderson. Neither are great defensive rebounders, oddly enough, but they combine two high value pieces of the offense that rarely coincide (depending on your view on the importance of offensive rebounds.)
As you can see above, the only players on both graphs are Love, Barkley, and Rodman, while Love is the only accurate shooter of the group. He provides two aspects of basketball you usually get from different specialists, rebounding and three-point shooting, while being one of the best scorers in the league, especially potent for a big man, and he's a very good passer who might be the best at outlet passes. Since the Wolves haven't been on TV a lot, people probably assume he just feasts off offensive rebounds and open three's, but he can score on his own, post-up, and play within an offense without stalling it. The knock against him is that he hasn't "led" his team to the playoffs, but that's mainly because his teams haven't been good. There is some truth to this: while his offense and rebounding are elite, his defense at an important position is disappointing. He doesn't have the physical tools to be a plus defender there, but he's gotten better every season and if he can merely hold his own he can easily be a top five player. One caveat is that he often plays at center even though he offers little paint protection, and the Wolves don't have a defensive presence in the frontcourt. He'd be better paired with an elite defensive big, but Pekovic was just signed to a long contract. Of course, there's more to defense than being a tall, athletic, long-armed defender -- Love could start to take charges by the bushel, for example, to make up for his lack of shot-blocking.
With no Love, Minnesota had a miserable offense even with some interesting pieces. It wasn't their turnovers (league average), it wasn't their offensive rebounding (they were actually above average there, mostly thanks to Pekovic), and they were actually top five in free throw attempts per field goal -- they just couldn't hit shots. They were bottom five in effective field-goal percentage; and a large component of their struggle stemmed from their inability to hit an outside shot. With some better health and Kevin Martin, that should no longer be a problem, and Kevin Love can take the burden off the rest of the players by scoring around 25 a night. The tradeoff is that without Kirilenko and with Martin, their defense will be significantly worse, though not more than their gain in offense.
When the Timberwolves strangely decided not to give Love the extension, people assumed they wanted to reserve the "franchise tag" extension for Rubio. Although a knee injury derailed him, we do have a good understanding now of what he is as a player. He's a selfless player with dazzling passes and is probably one of the most underrated perimeter defenders in the league, even though his steal rates are near the top (and his steals per minute/possession rating was the best last season.) The fact that he defended Team USA well in the Olympics as a teenager is now not surprising. But he can't shoot ... not even at the rim. For two straight seasons his field-goal percentage at the rim was under 50%, which is unacceptable for a starter. His jump shot is as bad as Rondo's was, and as a point guard this lack of an outside threat can undermine an offense by allowing the defense to help off him, directing more attention to guys like Love. But even Rondo could finish well inside, punishing the defenses sometimes. The result is that Minnesota, even though they lack options, performed just as well on offense when he was off the court both seasons, and adjusted plus/minus (or RAPM) agreed with the raw stats. If he's going to have the ball in his hands for a majority of the time, he needs a real jump shot, otherwise the offense will continually underperform.
On the optimistic side, their recent moves generally do make sense for the team. Brewer's one of the best transition players in the league, and coming off the heaviest fast break team in the league he should find synergy with Love's outlet passing. Kevin Martin will provide the wing scoring punch they desperately need, and Rubio's big enough to cross-match to cover any tough shooting guards. Shved and Barea aren't typical guards, but used correctly they're very effective. Since both Rubio and Shved are big point guards, that allows for less problems with Barea's size. Turiaf may not play much, but he's a perfect fit for Love: an active defender who blocks shots and his rebounding weakness is complemented here. The only negative addition was the draft pick of Shabazz Muhammed. Once upon a time, he was the most prized recruit of his draft class, a hair ahead of Noel for many people, but he turned out to be a year older than his reported age and had a disappointing year in college. As a late first round pick, it's tempting to take a risky player who used to have number one pick potential, but if his high school buzz wasn't connected to his profile he would have slipped out of the first round, as it's very troubling when wing players average less than one assist and steal per game.
The fiercest opponent the Wolves faced was health, and don't expect a complete reversal of their fortunes -- some of their guys will just miss a chunk of games nearly every season. Kevin Love is the difference maker here; they were starved for shooting last season. If he's healthy they'll have their first appearance since Garnett's MVP. A Love-Pekovic duo will be a devastating offensive attack, attacking the boards and both posting inside. Their ceiling will be limited because of Rubio's shooting and a lack of defense in their rotation, but this should be a winning season. In failing to provide a capable cast for Garnett, the Wolves let their franchise player go, and they'll be hoping to avoid the same mistake with this power forward.
Random prediction: Kevin Love has a great season and even picks up some steam as an MVP candidate in some circles as people sour on Durant and LeBron.
Win/loss prediction: 46-36
Golden State Warriors
As the league's most popular team, it's disarming I projected them to only win two more games than last season even though they added Iguodala. However, there are two factors here -- they outperformed their expected win total compared to their point differential, and they lost Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry. They were also a hair away from 50 wins in my projection. Maybe a Curry-led team consistently does well in crunch-time and they'll outperform their point differential again, but the safest best is to assume not. But his shooting will certainly make him the darling of the season.
A lot was made about coach Mark Jackson proclaiming the Curry-Thompson duo the "best three-point shooting backcourt ever." While they are definitely an outstanding duo, there's an issue here of how to rank duos or groups of players. To explain this, think of the best scoring duos season by season. Consider Kobe Bryant in 2006, scoring 35 a game and hitting 50 with regularity, and you could pair him with virtually any starter, like Smush Parker, and the duo would rank high. But that does not make them a great scoring duo, per se.
Following on that, I created a metric to rank shooting duos. Only guards with at least 150 3PA's and 40% from the three-point line qualified. Three-point volume is measured by three-pointers attempted per 40 minutes to put things on an even playing field. To standardize it and compare it with percentage, it's divided by the record for three-pointers attempted per 40 minutes: 11.1 by Novak in 2012. Three-point percentage is standardized by subtracting 0.36 (this way the values have the same range as volume, and it's a good balance for not over- or under-emphasizing accuracy) and divided by the record for three-point percentage, Korver's 0.5364 in 2010, from which 0.36 is also subtracted. This gives us a decent measure for how great a season was from outside. To compute duo scores? To go back to the discussion of Kobe and Smush Parker, instead of taking the average score, I'm calculating it as the square root of the product. Essentially, this penalizes duos where one guy is doing all the work. As a last note on the math, the seasons from the shortened line years were adjusted by decreasing the percentage and volume by how much both grew from the surrounding seasons ('94 and '98). This is a rough adjustment, especially since some guys were affected by the line more than others due to their range, but it's still a fairer comparison.
With the math out of the way, the results are in the table below. Unexpectedly, House and Ray Allen have the highest duo score. Allen is a given, but House's shooting that season was crazy. Few players shot more three-pointers per minute, yet he still made over 44% of them. Ray Allen, again in 2002, shows up in second place with Michael Redd, who came off the bench for most of that season. With better accuracy and volume than Curry, it's definitely one of the best seasons from outside the arc. Speaking of Curry, he shows up again with Anthony Morrow. Currently, the two rate as the second and eighth best all-time in three-point percentage. His father Dell Curry rates high in 1995 paired with Hersey Hawkins, but the adjustment for the line pushed them back. Price and Legler would have had the best score without a shortened line adjustment by a huge margin. Nevertheless, their accuracy still puts them in the discussion. As for the spirit of the question, many of these duos didn't start together for the majority of their games. This is where Thompson and Curry break away from the pack as only Steve Nash and Raja Bell started a majority of their games together. And since we're only looking at volume and percentage, we miss the difficulty of the shot, which would push Curry's score even higher. But it's important to note that the duo of Stephen and Klay doesn't blow anyone away. Thompson only made 40.1%, and it's possible we see a score blow their mark out of the water if you paired two elite seasons. For a sneaky pick at the greatest shooting backcourt, the trio of Steve Nash-Barbosa-Raja Bell all rate well individually, and, hey, Stephen Curry would agree: three is better than two.
Year
|
Player................
|
3P%
|
3PA/
40 min
|
Player................
|
3P%
|
3PA/
40 min
|
Duo score
|
GS
|
2009
|
Eddie House
|
44.4
|
9.2
|
Ray Allen
|
40.9
|
6.8
|
1.077
|
0/79
|
2002
|
Ray Allen
|
46.2
|
8.4
|
Michael Redd
|
48.3
|
5.6
|
1.072
|
67/8
|
1996
|
Brent Price
|
46.2
|
5.9
|
Tim Legler
|
52.2
|
5.5
|
1.054
|
50/0
|
2013
|
Stephen Curry
|
45.3
|
8.0
|
Klay Thompson
|
40.1
|
7.2
|
1.049
|
78/82
|
2008
|
Daniel Gibson
|
44.0
|
6.1
|
Damon Jones
|
41.7
|
8.3
|
1.033
|
26/3
|
2007
|
Steve Nash
|
45.5
|
5.1
|
Leandro Barbosa
|
43.4
|
6.7
|
1.010
|
76/18
|
2010
|
Stephen Curry
|
43.7
|
5.2
|
Anthony Morrow
|
45.6
|
6.1
|
0.996
|
77/37
|
1998
|
Greg Anthony
|
41.5
|
6.2
|
Dale Ellis
|
46.4
|
5.7
|
0.978
|
0/0
|
2006
|
Earl Watson*
|
40.4
|
6.9
|
Ray Allen
|
41.2
|
8.6
|
0.967
|
0/78
|
2007
|
Leandro Barbosa
|
43.4
|
6.7
|
Raja Bell
|
41.3
|
6.8
|
0.967
|
18/78
|
2008
|
Steve Nash
|
47.0
|
5.5
|
Raja Bell
|
40.1
|
6.6
|
0.962
|
81/75
|
2006
|
Leandro Barbosa
|
44.4
|
4.9
|
Raja Bell
|
44.2
|
6.0
|
0.961
|
11/79
|
2007
|
Steve Nash
|
45.5
|
5.1
|
Raja Bell
|
41.3
|
6.8
|
0.961
|
76/78
|
1) Morrow often played as a SF
2) Shortened line seasons adjusted
3) Earl Watson was traded midseason
Given the age of the backcourt, this may not even be their best shooting season. As that thought is scary on offense, the Warriors added Iguodala, who fits like a glove. He gives them an elite defensive wing who can cover multiple positions. He's also a fantastic passer, one of the best at the SF position and arguably only behind LeBron, and he still rates as one of the best finishers at the rim for perimeter players -- again, only behind LeBron in that category for the past few seasons. The team is now deadly in transition as the opponents have to watch out for quick-strikes from Curry behind the line and Iguodala is still one of the best open-court players. There's a concern about Iggy's outside shot, but as a career 33% shooter he's enough of a threat to warrant some attention, and he's a great cutter off the ball when the defense stops paying attention, much like Marion on the seven-seconds-or-less Suns.
The all-star of the 2013 team in title only, David Lee received a lot of negative attention when his team caused noise in the playoffs without him. There is certainly some truth to this. As one of the worst defensive players in the league, he negates a lot of his value on the other end of the court. At power forward and sometimes center, it's hard to hide his problems there. Otherwise he appears as a highly valuable player -- well-rounded offensive game, good jump shot, a very good passer for his position, and he's an excellent defensive rebounder, and his rebounds were earned since the Warriors somehow led the league in defensive rebounding. However,
as Zach Lowe pointed out, some of the holes in his game translate to a lower value on the Warriors then you'd expect. He's a terrible screener, sometimes completely whiffing, and Curry's game is opened up with good, hard screens.
There was also a confounding variable: Andrew Bogut. He only played 786 minutes during the regular season, so with Bogut the Warriors were a deadlier team than they seemed. Bogut sets hard screens, and he's not afraid of physical play. This led to better looks for Curry, and when defenses crowded the line Bogut just dived inside for an easy dunk. Bogut's a good passer too, giving the Warriors some of the best ball movement in the league when he's healthy. Yet most of his value is on the defensive end, where at his best he was Defensive Player of the Year-caliber. He still blocks shots at a high rate and in a rare combo picks up a load of charges. He's a strong, smart, and very large defensive anchor, and one of the better rebounders even at his position. However, he barely played over 1000 minutes over the course of the past two seasons, and his health has been in doubt forever. Their season will depend on his health: if he his 2000 minutes and plays like he did in the playoffs, their win total could be in the mid-50's, but I used a more conservative estimate.
Backing up Bogut is Jermaine O'Neal, who shares a few striking similarities. Like Bogut, he used to be a better offensive player, and his career has been derailed by injuries. He also combines charges and blocked shots, as both rated near the
top in steals+blocks+charges per 40 minutes, and he was one of the better defenders in his prime. He's still effective, however, but you probably don't want to back up a big man who misses multiple games a year with another who does the same. The other option at center is Ezeli, a young center who's a back-up at best. Joining him on the bench is Harrison Barnes, who seemingly broke-out in the playoffs showing some potential as a smalball power forward. But with Lee healthy and Iguodala arriving, he'll probably play less minutes. And he probably has Jeff Green syndrome: intriguing potential as a smallball 4, but he doesn't shoot well enough to make the defenses pay, and his highlight plays belie his disappointing overall numbers. His playoff numbers were inflated by a high minute total, as his per 36 minutes point total increased to only 15.1 from 13.1 in the regular season. He's not much of a scorer or outside shooter, or a ballhandler, and his defense is eclipsed by Iguodala by a wide margin. But he was one of the primary sources for Golden State's dominance on the defensive glass as one of the best rebounders at the SF position.
All eyes are on Golden State since they've been granted the title of most exciting team. But their win total will be subdued by a few factors. Health, of course, is key here, as Curry played over 3000 minutes and may not repeat that feat, while Bogut is a huge concern. But they also lost Jack and don't have a viable back-up point guard. Iguodala can pick up those duties, but his minutes may not perfectly align with Curry's on the bench. The improvements they will make will be on the defensive end with a major upgrade with Iguodala and a possibility of more time from Bogut. They were actually only slightly above average on offense last season, and they probably won't be much better, hype notwithstanding. But come playoff time if they're healthy, no one will want to play them.
Random prediction: Curry will break the three-point record, again, narrowly missing the 300 mark.
Win/loss prediction: 49-23
Memphis Grizzlies
After a run to the conference finals and an upgrade on the bench, people aren't excited for their chances this season. But that might have more to do with the additions to the best teams. For a team that stays the same, everyone else moving forward will make it look like you're going backwards. But the Grizzlies should again be one of the best teams in the league thanks to their fearsome defense. With some team name synergy, they rated as the best defensive team in the league, adjusting for strength of schedule, causing major disruption with turnovers with Marc Gasol anchoring the paint and winning the Defensive Player of the Year award despite a relatively low number of rebounds and blocks for a center candidate. They were a burly team inside, relying on a lot of post-up opportunities, but their offense was very poor for an elite team and they attempted the fewest three-pointers in the league. If their defense was simply league average, they only would have been good as the Milwaukee Bucks.
For a team that struggled with scoring, it was startling to see them trade their top scorer Rudy Gay for a bench frontcourt piece and Tayshaun Prince. He represented the largest old school versus stats-based new school argument in the league, as people thought Memphis would suffer without a legitimate "shot creator" while others saw him as an overrated, inefficient player with no other value. The truth is always somewhere in between, but Gay was shooting exceedingly poor in Memphis. As I've discussed before, high usage lineups (having more guys who shoot a lot) significantly outperform their projected offensive efficiency. The defensive attention these guys create put less pressure on everyone else, and generally there are less very difficult shots taken, like forcing a shot at the end of the shot clock. Shot creators are best when they pass and create opportunities for others, but even guys who don't pass make things a little easier by putting more pressure on the defense, often drawing double teams. However, as much as Rudy Gay helped the offense by creating shots, he stripped away that value by shooting poorly, and he didn't do anything else at a high level. And this was validated by what happened after the trade: the Grizzlies simply shrugged, and their offense barreled forward no worse for wear.
|
Adj. Off Eff.
|
Adj. Def. Eff.
|
SRS
|
TS%
|
FT/FTA
|
TOV%
|
AST%
|
Before trade
|
105.1
|
100.5
|
3.7
|
50.6
|
0.790
|
0.156
|
0.231
|
After trade
|
106.3
|
101.3
|
4.4
|
52.6
|
0.753
|
0.150
|
0.245
|
Regular season only. Simple adjustment for strength of schedule. SRS includes a homecourt adjustment too.
Memphis, even when adjusting for the easier defenses they faced in the second half, actually improved their offense without Gay, but slipped defensively to cancel out most of the effects. They shot a higher percentage and lowered their turnover ratio; it wasn't just Rudy Gay's awful contested two-pointers. With the ball going through Marc Gasol more, they had more assists per possession. Letting one person like Gay dominate the ball works when he's actually a good offensive player. Oddly enough, they were better on defense with Gay, but Prince's own defense has declined and there's a lot of natural variability and confounding variables, like if Mike Conley playing better defense after the all-star break, for example.
Speaking of Conley, he's quietly become one of the best point guards in the league -- not quite all-star level, and he'll never score enough to make the team, but he's one of the best on defense at his position and he's a solid distributor and outside shooter. The team is so starved of outside shooting it'd be best if he shot there more often, but for a point guard he's assisted on a high percentage of his three-pointers: he can spot-up, but he doesn't hit them when moving. Next to Conley is Tony Allen, who probably looks terrible now on box score metrics but is still a top-tier perimeter stopper, grading near the top in both adjusted plus/minus and Synergy. The problem is he can't shoot ... at all. And with the team lacking shooting ability, smart defenses with good post defenders can destroy them by freezing their offense and sagging off Tony Allen and their other non-shooters.
Memphis thought Prince could provide some outside shooting, but his accuracy isn't consistent and, more important, he's a low volume shooter who can barely manage a three-point attempt a game and is treading water with double digit points per 36 minutes. Since he's not getting burned in isolation plays, there's very little reason to play him other than a lack of options. One main option is the newly acquired Mike Miller, a big sharpshooter who helped bring home a title by shooting over one of the best defenses in the league. The financial realities of the league have been a struggle for Memphis, but this time it fell into their favor as they picked him up after the amnesty ax was used on him. He can no longer play big minutes, and his injuries have left him as a combustible defensive player who can't move well, but Memphis needs his shooting more than any other team. He gives them a valuable weapon, and they had best not overuse him so he's fresh for the playoffs.
While some of the wing players are on the wrong side of 30, they do have some younger options. Pondexter emerged as a 3/D specialist shooting a high volume of outside shoots near 40% with credible defense. People often use raw plus/minus to rate defenders, sometimes even ignoring context, and that's a problem here: he's backing up Tony Allen. If his defensive raw plus/minus is poor, that means he's human. Bayless is a change of pace combo guard used like a sixth man, providing an instant spark. He can't really run an offense, but he will run his own offense, and the Grizzlies were so starved of offense they didn't him jacking up shots. Joining him on the bench is Nick Calathes. Years ago, Hollinger started a draft rater and as an exercise made his own draft picks based on his numbers and intuition. He was pretending to be a front office executive, but now he actually is one, and he nabbed a player in the off-season he targeted with
a draft rater back in 2009, someone who's been playing overseas ever since he graduated. Nick was the ranked sixth via his 2009 draft rater, and his stats in college and internationally have suggested a tall point guard like, say, Michael-Carter Williams or Rondo who can fill up a stat sheet but has question marks on shooting. Since Memphis doesn't need to depend on him, he can either take a seat on the deep bench or become a pleasant surprise.
But the core of the team is the starting frontline. Referencing the chart using Synergy post-up stats, Zach Randolph had the highest number of post-up plays in the league, and Marc Gasol was ninth. Only two teams posted up more often: Indiana and Utah. Zach Randolph has long been known for his ability to score inside, and he complements that attack with a jump shot he used to use far too often. His defense in Memphis has been as good as it's ever been, due to focus on the coaching staff, but he's starting to slip and it'll be interesting to see what the team does with him and his large contract. He has "Rudy Gay potential" in that his conventional stats overrate his impact. Memphis didn't have a good offense, and with even Randolph's usage rate down to lower levels his inefficient scoring isn't worth the $34 million he's owed over two years. By contrast, Marc Gasol offers a varied and selfless game as one of the best passers in the league, a good defensive rebounder, an accurate but flat-footed jumper, a post-game with a 1950's hook shot (yet still more efficient than Randolph's post-game), and elite defense. Some may question his award, but the easy counter to this is that Memphis had one of the best defenses in modern history despite starting Zach Randolph at power forward and having little help from the bench for their frontcourt. The team was very good at defending in the paint, his defensive isolation and post-up numbers were outstanding (0.66 PPP ranking 22nd and 0.62 PPP ranking 21st, respectively), he played a large number of minutes, so what's the problem with the award?
With the lost-post game in decline for frontcourt players, a lot of commentators and analysts have been waxing nostalgic for a bygone era, usually citing a lack of skill in young players. However, the game has changed, and post-up opportunities are less effective now in the modern game. There are a few reasons for this. One is that offense has shifted more the perimeter because of the three-point line and the frequency of highly athletic perimeter players, often point guards, who drive to the rim with intensity. Another is that defenses are better and more attuned to snuff out post-up plays. There is more help defense, and it's faster. In earlier eras, post coverage was usually man to man and there were less swarming defenders and ultra-quick defenders to poke the ball away. And some of the best defenses like to flood the strong side of the ball, suffocating the space for a post-up. Yet the media are attached to the past and urge teams and players to post-up more often, despite its mixed results. And as we'll see in the Houston Rockets section coming up, the best offenses don't use the post often.
The Grizzlies added a young, starting-caliber center to their bench, and added one of the best shooters in the league to address their glaring weakness. Yet they're stuck on a treadmill, not improving enough to keep up with the competition in the west and the decline due to age of their core players. Any deviation will be likely due to a new offensive system, attacking more in transition for easier plays. I'm dubious on the effect of the change, but Denver had a good offense with non-shooters. For a last note, I've been following Hollinger for years, and I'm cheering for him to land another steal like the Koufos trade. If they get a significant upgrade to their offense, they'll be a legitimate contender.
Random prediction: Marc Gasol's defense won't change, but he won't repeat as Defensive Player of the Year; he'll be fifth.
Win/loss prediction: 53-19
Houston Rockets
What the Rockets have done in recent seasons is remarkable as an organization. They watched as their two superstars crumbled and succumbed to devastating injuries, yet they managed to keep their head above water and win about half their games, even tearing off on a 22 game win streak at one point. They cycled through assets and waited for the right moment to strike, then found it: they used the clever poison-pill contract to sign Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, stealing them from two premier teams looking to win now. Then they used their assets to trade for budding young scorer James Harden, stealing him from a cap-conscious Oklahoma city fresh off a finals appearance. Suddenly they had a young top scorer, and an elite defensive center. Top top it all off, they stole Dwight Howard in free agency from the league's most famous team. They rebuilt on the fly, never becoming horrible, and concentrating on young players. After reaching the playoffs last season, it's only up from here.
Dwight Howard suffered through a disastrous campaign in Los Angeles, healing as the season progressed (and according to Houston he wasn't completely healed until the summer.) He's also the target of misguided criticism from the media, mostly stemming from his repeated insistence on getting more post-up opportunities and commentary from Shaq and Barkley on TNT. This was an unlucky occurrence. One of the fundamental debates in physics is the "handedness" of the universe -- why are we matter and not anti-matter, for example? For reasons (currently) unknown, we live in matter-space, and it could have been just as likely to have been anti-matter. Barkley and Shaq represent the extremes to one-end of post players -- they are primarily offensive players known for their scoring exploits (they're good rebounders too, but Howard beats them both on the glass.) They want to see Howard dominate the ball in the post, scoring over 25 points a game with multiple touches a quarter. But why should he? That's not his strength as a player. Barkley is one of the worst defenders in the frontcourt for Hall of Fame players since the merger, and who would argue that defense is less important to team success? If we're looking at what a team needs to succeed, posting-up is not a priority -- Miami just won a title by ignoring the center position or playing Chris Anderson, who only scores off lobs or scavenging a play near the rim.
Using Synergy stats, we can compare how often teams post-up to their offensive efficiency in the chart below. It's evident that you do not need to post often for good results. Miami blew everyone away on offense (this is points per play, not possession, so it ignores their poor offensive rebounding) yet they were below average in posting up. In fact, the top five teams post-up less than the league average, followed closely the Clippers who are a little above average. What's more problematic is how bare the upper right quadrant is and all the points located within are close to the league averages. Indiana was the most post-up heavy team, yet they had one of the worst offenses in the leagued, saved only to mediocrity by offensive rebounding. Some of the best offenses were efficient when posting-up, yes, but they were just efficient in general, and often had perimeter players (Durant, Wade) using the post-up plays anyway. Denver and Houston represent two different methods for generating very good offenses while being extremely bad post-up teams -- Denver used ball movement and cutting without outside shooting, while Houston hoisted more three-pointers than anyone else and slashed to the rim and the line. And an argument that you "need" post-ups to crash the glass is misguided too: Denver was the best team on the offensive glass yet they, along with perhaps the Bucks, were the worst post-up team. Obviously, correlation is not causation, but looking at the numbers it is strange to suggest what an offense "needs" is more posting-up from its center because it appears the best offenses tend to post less often.
What's interesting is that Houston had the lowest percentage of post-up plays. As a team starved for posting, Howard could drastically change their offense if he presses that play. But the offense, even with a weird mix of new players and rookies, hummed right along, blissfully unaware they were committing an NBA sin by ignoring big man posting. However, the team's insistence on starting Asik will undo their fine offense, and while they have him except their offense to suffer with the two in the game. This should be obvious: these are two players who can't shoot outside of the paint, can't even shoot free throws, and turn the ball over at a high rate. Any insistence that the offense won't dip significantly is strange, and Morey's PR campaign here should be applauded. People are adamant that a few minutes with Greg Smith and Asik shows things will be dandy, and the team assuring people they're keeping Asik just sounds a team being smart and playing their cards close to their chest. If they want high market value for Asik, they can't seem desperate, and they'll likely wait until more players (like Millsap) are available to trade.
Asik is now in a tumultuous position after doing an amazing and underrated job of keeping Houston's defense from imploding. They had some of the highest roster turnover in the league, they never established a power forward, and Harden is one of the worst defenders who start regularly. Asik was constantly putting out fires and he somehow led them to a league average defense and the second best defensive rebounding team in the league. He's an active defender with agile feet despite his large frame; his motor is so relentless the coaching staff has to track him closely so he doesn't pass out on the court. He had one of the largest raw defensive plus/minuses at 5.8, and this is actually lower than what it was in Chicago backing up Noah: 7.7 and 9.7, respectively. His adjusted marks are just as impressive, and it'd be ignorant to not give him credit for being elite defensively. Yet he will not fit next to Howard well, no matter what Morey says. The team will be easier to exploit in the playoffs, where it matters, because they'll have two starting players who can't shoot at all, and having 48 minutes of elite defense in the middle is not an excuse either; simply put, a back-up center is not more valuable than a starting power forward. Having two elite defensive centers is also less important during the playoffs where you can play your best guys more minutes.
Speaking to how a team translates to the playoffs, James Harden is receiving more criticism as he enters a bigger spotlight. Only 25% of his shots last season were not at the rim or behind the line. Ignoring the 3-9 foot range (those shots for perimeter players usually come from drives and consist of shots like floaters), it's only 17%. Modern basketball analysis has identified those shots as being more valuable than others, and in this regard Harden is strong. However, the best defenses limit these opportunities and make them more difficult. For instance, a team with a defender like Tony Allen can single cover Harden and stop the open attempts from three for the rest of the team, and with a defender like Gasol inside they can take away Harden's easy shots. A counter to this is a good midrange jumper -- Miami found success versus the Spurs when LeBron's jumper returned, for example. The ultimate point is that to find playoff success, a team needs a scorer who can still create offense even against suffocating defenses, like Nowitzki's match-up nightmare or Jordan's midrange game. Accusations that Harden can't score against elite defenses are perhaps premature, but he's only 24 years old; he has a lot of time to learn.
At point guard, the team has two vastly different options. Jeremy Lin is a pick and roll point guard who's good at finishing at the rim but isn't a good spot-up shooter. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective because he's not out there for anything else; he picks up steals but isn't a standout defender. Patrick Beverly, on the other hand, is a tenacious, pesky point guard who doesn't run an offense well but is one of the best spot-up shooters for his position. With those skills, he's a better fit next to Harden and Howard. There's some discussion of "needing" two penetrators in the starting lineup, but that mainly steams from a comment Morey made in justifying Lin next to Harden. It's partly true, but it's more valuable to have another shooter and defender on the court, especially because Harden is one of the worst full-time defenders in the league. Lin would probably be best off the bench, like Asik, to run the offense with the second-unit players and to help stagger his minutes so he's always out there when Harden isn't.
Rounding out the lineup will be Parsons, an ultimate glue guy who can do a little bit of everything.
Larry Coon found Chandler was the most underpaid player in the league, using an expected value from his ESPN rank score and the percentage he was underpaid compared to his contract. Houston specializes in finding second round steals, and they can be the most cost-effective contracts in the league. As a tall shooter with athleticism and a defensive mindset, he has a lot of potential as a stopper, but needs to work on his help defense and being able to contain top scorers by himself. Houston also brings a few shooters off the bench. Francisco Garcia is a lithe, streaky shooter who spent most of his career in Sacramento and hasn't known so much success. Omri Casspi will be used as a stretch four, but his past two seasons have been subpar from behind the arc. It's likely he'll rebound since his first two seasons were above average, he's still young, and shooting generally improves at his age. Greg Smith is now the third-string center, but he may be used too often if the team sticks with a starting lineup of Asik-Howard; it's hard to work out the rotations perfectly so either Howard or Asik are on the floor, especially with foul trouble. Brewer can't shoot, but he could find success off the bench defending with Asik, harking back to their Bulls days.
The Rockets are poised to have one of the greatest win increases, not just due to Howard but due to a lower than expected win total from their 2013 win differential. Given how they outscored teams, they should have won around 50 wins, not 45. With an awkward tandem of Asik and Howard, this won't be the final iteration of the team, and the executives are smart enough to realize patience is important here, waiting for the right deal to surface like the Harden steal. But expect them to target someone like Ryan Anderson or Paul Millsap; the latter has slowly unveiled three-point range but is still a very effective defender at power forward. With the Howard circus landing in Houston, overreactions and critical pieces will come down hard on the team, as people might ignore the long-term view here -- it's a young team with a good cap situation, healthy assets, and one of the best front offices. What happens in the playoffs will lead to people trying to write off Harden and Howard, both of whom are now a couple of the most reviled players, but that's way too early; they're going to be here for years to come.
Random prediction: Asik will be traded for Millsap three weeks before the trade deadline, and their offense will take off.
Win/loss prediction: 55-17
Oklahoma City Thunder
After trading Harden for picks and Kevin Martin, it was expected the Thunder would have stunted growth in the win column, struggling to improve. Instead they had one of the best point differentials ever, sometimes destroying opponents, and
ended up with the 8th best SRS (b-ref's team rating system) ever. Out of the 22 teams besides OKC with an SRS above 8, only seven didn't win a title, and three of those teams saw another team with a higher SRS win in the same year win the title. One of the remaining four teams played during the 40's, but the other three are all intriguing playoff failures -- the Lebron Cavs at the height of their powers, the Payton/Kemp/George Karl Sonics during Jordan's retirement losing in the first round, and the 1973 Lakers with an aging Jerry West, Chamberlain, and Goodrich failing to repeat as champions. Were the 2013 Thunder going to suffer the same fate if Westbrook had been healthy? Did they feast on weak opponents, inflating their SRS, and would they have been defeated by Miami or someone else?
In describing how teams get to their point differential, what's usually done is that opponents are put into "bins" where you can see a record or point differential versus, say, playoff teams or versus teams that ended with season with 30 or less wins. It's a basic way to see if the blowouts are inequally proportioned against weak teams, for example, but that structure misses something significant: degrees of gradation. If you cite a record against playoff teams, but that schedule never had games against Miami and it was mostly against weak opponents, it's misleading. Thus, for a metric that calculates team strength based on a theory some teams do better against good teams, or bad teams, I created a simple regression system based on b-ref's team SRS. Basically, you want to explain the margin of victory of each game after you factor in
homecourt advantage and back-to-back games. The variable is opponent SRS (team strength from basketball-reference.com) so we can extract a coefficient to see whether or not Oklahoma City's point differential is inflated against weaker teams.
The table below shows the Thunder's SRS in a variety of situations. The first component is the coefficient: the league average is -1, while anything less than that means they play worst than expected versus good teams (which OKC does.) The baseline is pretty much the same as basketball-reference's SRS; and it only deviates by four one-hundredths. But against a team with an SRS of 5, the Thunder look significantly weaker, dropping an entire 1 point. A team with an SRS of 7 is a strong contender likely to make the finals, but against them OKC, by this method, appears to only have a strength of 7.57. Miami, by the way, had an SRS of 7.87 for the season, and it improves versus better teams. They had a coefficient of -0.80, meaning versus a likely finals team their strength increases to 8.59. The Spurs, similarly, were better against good teams: a coefficient of -0.87. Obviously, this doesn't take into account match-ups, injuries, or starters playing more minutes in the playoffs, but it's good to consider what team strength is and how it can change versus elite teams.
Oklahoma City: 2013, V-point (variable point differential)
|
Coefficient
|
Average team (baseline)
|
5 SRS (strong playoff team)
|
7 SRS (likely finals team)
|
SRS
|
-1.23
|
9.17
|
8.02
|
7.57
|
Even if you dampen their inflated point differential, they were still outstanding. Their offense was particularly potent, as Durant had one of the best offensive seasons ever while teams struggled keeping Westbrook in front of them. Kevin Martin was used as one of the best spot-up shooters in the league off the bench, and Ibaka's midrange shooting has been undervalued: he has a Bosh/Garnett-level of accuracy from 16-23 feet. That they led the league in points per possession starting Perkins and after having lost James Harden is stunning. It's difficult to say what that means about Harden, since Durant took a major leap forward and it's hard to share the ball between their stars, but Houston did improve on offense, saying something positive about his value. As the chart below shows, the oft-maligned Westbrook was actually at the league average for his shooting percentages. He's an interesting case in what controls a high-powered offense. Without him, the Thunder offense looked anemic and Durant was pressed into a different role. Even though his TS% was far below his team's average, he improved the team's overall TS% anyway. The second chart shows that the best offenses aren't only led by players who have great percentages.
The biggest improvement, however, came on defense. From 2012 to '13, the Thunder's offense improved by 1.3 points per 100 possessions relative to the league average; yet the defense improved by 1.9 points. Harden's a terrible defender but so is Kevin Martin, so the improvement was at a team-wide level. But if you were to pin it on one player, that would probably be Thabo Sefolosha who doubled his playing time and staked out his claim as a top-notch perimeter defender. He's probably the most underrated in this regard, posting sterling marks in plus/minus. He's a long-armed defender with a wingspan reportedly of 7' 2" and he's able to cover multiple positions. With a consistent three-point shot, his offense was good enough to warrant major playing time, and it gave the Thunder a "stopper" to throw at elite perimeter scorers, letting Durant and Westbrook rest.
Their defense shouldn't be surprising with their big man rotation. Perkins has received a lot of criticism, but he's still a good defender and one of the best post defenders in the league; only Chuck Hayes and Dwight Howard allowed less points per play in post-ups, according to Synergy, defending at least 250 plays. Ibaka doesn't warrant Defensive Player of the Year consideration, but he's very good overall and still improving. He's also trying to become an NBA oddity as
an elite shot-blocker with three-point range, which has only been accomplished by Kirilenko and Raef LaFrentz. Nick Collison rounds out the main rotation as a darling of the "no-stats all-star" club, excelling in plus/minus. He's the ultimate glue guy as a big man -- he defends well in about every situation, from post-ups to pick and rolls, and his weakness of rim protection is aided by his ability to take a charge; he prefers screening to scoring and to set others up rather than look for his shot; he's a good passer; and when he's open, he has a reliable jumper and he's an efficient scorer overall. Once again, the Thunder were better when he was on the court even though he didn't start often with Durant and Westbrook.
Oklahoma City's draft pick Steven Adams has a possibility of crashing the rotation. Physically, he stacks up well to NBA centers, and while he didn't score often in college that's not a problem here. Fans may demand they amnesty Perkins to open up playing time for up and to rid themselves of their current starter. On that note, the Thunder would not necessarily be "wasting" their money by giving him the amnesty. This is a sunk cost fallacy. If you believe Perkins isn't offering a production the team needs and you could replace his minutes with players on the team or minimum level guys without suffering a loss in proficiency, then it's not wasting money. The point is to win games, not to play the guys who you paid the most money. Plus, it will open up cap space, and they'll be paid back whatever Perkins' bid is.
The bench perimeter unit is untested and thin, however. Reggie Jackson got playoff experience, but at his best he's only a back-up guard. He's a mediocre shooter, but a pretty good slasher. That's fine, but the Thunder lost their bench shooter Kevin Martin to Minnesota. Instead they'll have to hope young Jeremy Lamb progresses quickly and adds a dependable outside stroke. With a wingspan like Sefolosha's, they have a belief he evolves into a 3/D specialist. Otherwise, it's up to the likes of Ryan Gomes and Derek Fisher to soak up the spare minutes.
Given Westbrook's injury and the timetable I had, I projected him to miss a large chunk of games. However, at the time of publishing this, he's already come back; he missed a mere two games. Given the poor support behind him and the possibility of playing Fisher for long stretches, the injury seemingly knocked off a few wins, and it would have been an interesting experiment to test Durant as a complete player. With a full season from Westbrook, they would have ranked as the second best team in the league. But when worrying he'd miss a few weeks, there were more pessimistic outlooks from people who were not convinced this was still an elite team. Yet they had a top five defense and the major piece they lost, Kevin Martin, was one of the worst defensive players in the league. Their point differential may have been inflated last season and they were lucky to get nearly 6000 minutes from their top two players, but this is still a very strong team with a young core and already a finals appearance under their belt. They're still a contender for a title, and in a season where they're written off this would make for a great story.
Random prediction: Steven Adams has a good rookie season, making the First Team All-Rookie, and everyone demands they dump Perkins. They'll get their wish summer 2014.
Win/loss prediction: 55-17
San Antonio Spurs
Even though they were one play away from winning a title and have returned all their key players, San Antonio is being partially forgotten again. The age of their best players could be a concern, but another year will help the development of young players Leonard and Green. We've being waiting for the Spurs to slip for years, but it's wise not to bet against them. In fact, their metronome consistency is almost alarming. Adjusting the lockout seasons to 82 games, the last time they won less than 50 games was 1997 when David Robinson missed almost the entire season. And the last time they had a losing record, excluding 1997, was 1989. Duncan himself has been amazingly consistent, and he turned back to clock to set a personal record for block percentage (percentage of opponent two point field-goals blocked.) His rebound rate is probably most impressive: after his first two seasons, it has never dipped below 17.8 and never above 19.6.
Setting a personal best in blocks at age 36 (he was 37 at the end of the season) may seem weird, but it's actually happened a few times before: Kevin Willis when he was 37, and his second-best mark was at 36; Kurt Thomas did the same with his best and second-best at ages 37 and 36; Charles Oakley reversed the trend setting his best mark at age 36 and second-best at 37; and Jerome Kersey, believe it or not, set his personal best at age 37. Duncan had his best defensive season in a while, and even approaching 40 the Spurs were much better defensively when he was on the court. He doesn't get to the rim like he did in his prime, but he was over 80% from the line for the first time in his career and his jumper is an old reliable.
Yet long ago Popovich handed over the reins to Tony Parker on offense. According to Synergy, nearly half of Tony Parker's plays came from the pick and roll, where he ranked 11th in efficiency in the league. His shooting proficiency comes from the paint, which includes his patented floater, and one of the best pull-up midrange shots. His story is one of playing to his strengths, pick and rolls and shooting inside the arc, as he's nearly eliminated the three-point shot
except in the corners. In an era of three-point shooting, the Spurs actually started three players who didn't have consistency outside the arc, and they lost to a team that tried to play five players with such range. Smart offensive execution can still lead to great offensive success with two traditional big men in the lineup.
Make no mistake here, however: the Spurs still love the long-ball. Danny Green emerged seemingly out of nowhere, suggesting that the Spurs knew how to develop players, but
Hollinger's draft rater had him 8th in 2009; Danny Green had the stats in college he could be a good shooter and defender, and that's what he is. Somehow, he's 11th all-time in three-point percentage, and his career has just started. He's almost entirely catch-and-shoot from three-point range, but he's so accurate it doesn't matter. Teams can hardly stand to watch a Tony Parker pick and roll without giving help, so it's a pick your poison dilemma -- and putting so much pressure on the defense that they have to trade one problem for another is what leads to what was once again one of the best offenses in the league.
Joining him on the wings waiting for an open shot is Kawhi Leonard. While everyone has him targeted as a future star, he still has a ways to go. He didn't initiate a lot of his own offense and had to be assisted on 65% of his own shots. Not much of a ballhandler or passer, most of his potential lies on the defensive end where he has more than enough size for small forward and is already one of the best defensive rebounders for his position. Given that he's only 22 years-old, he's sure to be an elite defensive wing, especially given that he's learning on the Spurs and that he's not too far off already. Offensively, it's unclear how much of a burden he can handle because, while he showed a few tools like a post-up game, he has a long way to go.
Surrounding Duncan in the frontcourt is the same cast as last season minus Blair, who fell out of the rotation anyway: Splitter, Bonner, and Diaw. Each offers a different skillset and advantage in match-ups. While Danny Green is 11th all-time in three-point percentage, Matt Bonner is 14th. He's a high volume shooter who's unusually accurate, and he's better in most of the specific big man duties that he's not a liability on defense. Splitter had a bad finals series, but it can happen even to legends, and as a tall, nimble seven-footer who finishes well inside it's a no-brainer to keep him. Diaw is perhaps one of the most perplexing big men ever. He disappointed a shooting guard in Atlanta, then found success with the unorthodox Phoenix Suns replacing Amare Stoudemire in the frontcourt. The Suns managed to win 56 games without Amare leading the media to give Nash a second MVP in two years; yet it was Diaw's surprisingly good play that helped prop up Phoenix above 50 wins. So indirectly, he's a major cause in one of the most infamous MVP decisions ever. After Phoenix, he was shipped to the Bobcats, and he couldn't manage to find a role with one of the worst teams in the league. He was a bad player on a terrible team in 2012, the Spurs picked him up anyway, and they managed to win more games with Diaw than without. His passing abilities and reluctance to shoot are wasted on a poor team, but in San Antonio's system he's valuable. Jokes about LeBron not scoring on him are unfounded because he's a plus defender with strangely quick feet and enough girth that you can't blow through him.
Not much has changed with the Spurs, so we shouldn't expect much to change with their win total. They swapped Gary Neal for Bellinelli, which will probably be an upgrade. Bellinelli is also like Ginobili-lite in that he's a good passer who can serve as a back-up point guard and has a love of outside shots, but he's not going to move the needle much. This is still the Duncan-Parker Spurs, and they hope Manu shows up for the playoffs. For all the complains about selfish play and the lack of fundamentals in today's game, this is the team to watch, and any criticism about "boring" San Antonio basketball is unmerited with Parker's scoring abilities, Manu's flashy drives to the rim, the team's three-point bombing, the pretty passing from almost every player, and the precise execution. One of these years the Spurs will slip, but I don't like betting against them.
Random prediction: Duncan will rebound at a high level. Okay, a real one: Manu will have his last great season as his PER bounces back to 22 when his three-point percentage hits 40% again, countering a worse season offensively from Duncan.
Win/loss prediction: 58-14
Los Angeles Clippers
In preparing the win predictions, you need to start from how good a team's offense and defense will be. I use a little bit of regression to the mean, so it's rare to see a team with an incredible offensive or defensive rating. Yet that's what happened here: the Clippers, by my predictions, will have one of the best offenses in modern league history. Given that they didn't lead the league last season and didn't add a star this is surprising, but there were a few warning signs. They were sneaky good last season, only ranking behind the brilliance of the Heat and Thunder and a crazy three-point shooting season from the Knicks. At +4.7 better than the league average, referencing basketball-reference's offensive rating, they were already very good. And they definitely have the pieces: Chris Paul is already one of the best point guards ever as an offensive maestro who rarely turn the ball ever yet averages 9 to 10 assists a year while
controlling the ball the entire game and scoring more often in crunch time, where he's one of the best at hitting a 15 foot shot with the quickness and ballhandling wizardry to get to the rim for layup or a pass to an open shooter. The other star is Blake Griffin, who has become underrated due to the criticism he's faced for not progressing as a player since his rookie season or fixing his ugly shot, but that doesn't change the fact that he's one of the best finishers around the rim, his post game isn't Olajuwon's but it's still effective, and he's actually one of the best passers and ballhandlers for his position, something he doesn't get credit for. Combine an elite point guard who's both a great passer and shooter with a power forward who's one of the best finishers in the game, and you get the foundation for an awesome offensive display.
The 2014 Clippers project to be even better on offense, and it's because of the changes in their role players. They're bringing in Redick and Jared Dudley as starters with Darren Collison and BJ Mullens on the bench. They've lost, meanwhile, Caron Butler, Eric Bledsoe, and Lamar Odom while Willie Green will be pushed back in the rotation and old men Billups and Grant Hill moved on, but they didn't play much anyway. In judging team strengths, people typically overrate the effects of stars while ignoring the role players, but it can get complicated. Bledsoe had a great season, but he couldn't shoot and most of his impact was on defense. Darren Collison is one of the fastest players in the league and a good shooter; this is an upgrade on offense, although a small one. The largest difference is JJ Redick starting: he's a Ray Allen-type coming off screens, and those types of players are extremely valuable to high-powered offenses, and it's an unusually powerful weapon alongside a point guard like Chris Paul. He's replacing minutes from Willie Green and Billups.
Jared Dudley is a consummate professional, and he's an underrated role player who can hit an open shot and defend competently on the other end. Caron "Tough Juice" Butler was a better player in his prime, but that was years ago. He tried to take up too much of the offense with a usage rate of 20 even though his TS% was 53; Dudley is fine in a smaller role and for his career his TS% is 58. BJ Mullens is hardly the kind of signing a champion makes, but last season they got 1616 minutes from Lamar Odom going through personal issues while shooting under 40% from the field for an awful TS% of 42.9. Even his once impressive assist rate was down to a career low. It's actually amazing the Clippers were as good as they were on offense giving Odom that large of a role. BJ Mullens is inspiring, but even he will be better on offense.
So they surrounded Chris Paul with an all-star power forward who's a plus 20 points per game scorer and a fantastic target, a center who's also one of the best lob targets in DeAndre Jordan, multiple accurate shooters, an infusion of speed off the bench in Collison, and a former sixth man of the year and isolation extraordinaire Jamaal Crawford. With the Thunder losing Kevin Martin and the Heat likely coasting a little after a second title, the Clippers will likely be the best offensive team and could be one of the best ever.
The question, then, lies with their defense. The last time a good defensive coach replaced Vinny Del Negro, the Chicago Bulls turned into a defensive monster and Rose won an MVP. New coach Doc Rivers has DeAndre Jordan dreaming of a Defensive Player of the Year award, but I don't see that happening and the Clippers won't be close to elite defensively. First of all, the team doesn't have the pieces since their starting lineup has no stoppers and Jordan isn't an impact defender despite his blocks and size. The help they have off the bench is even more troubling inside: BJ Mullens and Ryan Hollins are terrible defenders and shouldn't be getting time on a contender. A swap of Collison and Bledsoe is a major downgrade on defense even though point guard defense is less important. The team's best defender is Matt Barnes, who will hopefully get a lot of time because they'll need him. Doc can try to work his magic, but leading a top defense is easier when you have Garnett and there's no one like that here. This is a team one player short -- they need a great defensive player in the middle. If Okafor gets bought out by the Suns, he'd be a great fit, and he would fill out their rotation by providing real rim protection and defense along with being a much better option as a third big man than anything else they have right now.
The team hopes this is the season that DeAndre Jordan makes the leap, but that's far from a guarantee. There's more to defense than being large and athletic. However, there are plenty of big men who took a long time to mature on that end of the court, like Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, and Marc Gasol. Modern defense is complicated, and sometimes it takes the right coaching staff to teach the player. Jordan certainly has the tools: his standing reach of 9' 5.5" is only behind JaVale McGee and Rudy Gobert, and he's one of the most athletic centers in the league. There's a chance he becomes a great defensive player, but it's not a given. But for their chance of winning a title, that's what Los Angeles needs.
Chris Paul has been voted third in MVP votes the past two seasons, but he's still overlooked by a few people. He's known as a playoff failure, but it's not his fault as he's never had overwhelming support on his teams and he's the one who drags them to the playoffs. Before Paul, the Clippers missed the playoffs even with Blake Griffin. He's also led the playoffs in PER three times, more than LeBron, Kobe, Dirk, Duncan, or Wade. To say that you can't blindly use stats to rate him is sorta the point here: don't judge him based on how his teams have done in the playoffs because generally Paul has risen to the occasion while his teammates have let him down. If you watched his games versus Memphis, you would see a player guarded by elite guys in either Tony Allen or Mike Conley going all-out, performing well despite all the defensive attention, while his cast starts to crumble (Griffin was injured and got embarrassed by Zach Randolph.) All the evidence mounted over the years suggests Chris Paul t is one of the greatest players of his generation.
With an offense nearly as good as the Nash-era Suns, the Clippers will win a lot of games even with a mediocre defense. Mid-season trades and pick-ups can alter a prediction, and that might be the case here. If they gain a real defensive piece to add to their frontcourt, or even a plus defender for guards, this team could be a strong case for the finals and, as strange as it sounds, a title. If Jordan becomes a great defender in the middle, the startling lineup of Paul-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan will be one of the most ideal in the league. Remember: it wasn't too long ago this organization was the laughingstock of the entire league. The NBA is a special team sport in that it takes just one player sometimes. And all it takes is one magical run in the playoffs to make history.
Random prediction: surprised with their win total and voter fatigue for LeBron, Chris Paul wins MVP.
Win/loss prediction: 60-12
