Miami's Rebounding Belies Stunning Offense

Most NBA sites include offensive rebounding when measuring a team's offensive efficiency including basketball-reference and ESPN. Rebounding does matter in assessing how effective a team is, but it doesn't align with our perception of what a killer offense is. The Miami Heat in going to smallball lineups have tremendous floor-spacing for LeBron and Wade to operate, but with Batter as a "power" forward they're one of the worst offensive rebounding teams ever. They were 26th last season, but so far in the 2014 season after 10 games they're dead last grabbing only 17.7% of the available offensive rebounds -- and the "record" is 19.7 by the 2012 Celtics.

How potent is Miami's offense ignoring rebounds? Using PTS/(FGA+.44*FTA+TOV), it's scary: 104.8. The league average is 91.0. The second place team is far away at 98.1 (the Clippers.) At a +13.7 difference compared to the league average, this is historic. Going back to the introduction of the shot clock, no one has been close. The '71 Bucks destroyed the league with Lew Alcindor (later renamed Kareem) and Oscar Robertson, winning 66 games and a title. Yet they were "only" 9.7 better than the league average. The difference between Miami and the '71 Bucks is the same difference as the second ranked Bucks and the 45th ranked '91 Bulls. This is small sample size theater for Miami, but they do have the fourth best relative rating ever from 2013.

Rank	Season	Team	Diff. MinOffRat	Key players
1	2014	Miami Heat	13.7	LeBron-Wade-Bosh
2	1971	Milwaukee Bucks	9.7	Kareem-Robertson
3	2007	Phoenix Suns	9.3	Nash-Amare-Marion
4	2013	Miami Heat	9.1	LeBron-Wade-Bosh
5	1988	Boston Celtics	8.8	Bird-McHale
6	2005	Phoenix Suns	8.5	Nash-Amare-Marion
7	2008	Phoenix Suns	8.4	Nash-Amare-Shaq
8	2002	Dallas Mavericks	8.2	Dirk-Nash-Finley
9	2004	Sacramento Kings	7.8	Stojakovic-Bibby
10	1982	Denver Nuggets	7.8	Issel-English-Vandeweghe
11	1997	Utah Jazz	7.7	Malone-Stockton-Hornacek
12	2003	Dallas Mavericks	7.5	Dirk-Nash-Finley
13	1998	Utah Jazz	7.5	Malone-Stockton-Hornacek
14	2006	Phoenix Suns	7.4	Nash-Marion
15	1995	Utah Jazz	7.3	Malone-Stockton-Hornacek
16	1998	Seattle SuperSonics	7.1	Payton-Schrempf-Baker
17	2010	Phoenix Suns	7.1	Nash-Amare
18	1987	Boston Celtics	7.1	Bird-McHale
19	2013	Oklahoma City Thunder	7.1	Durant-Westbrook
20	1972	Milwaukee Bucks	7.1	Kareem-Robertson

*MinOffRat: PTS/(FGA+.44*FTA+TOV)

**Ranked by difference of MinOffRat to the league average

In discussing how good offenses are, not everyone includes rebounding. The perception is mainly around making shots and hitting the most efficient ones, limiting turnovers while getting to the line. Shooting 62% from the field and 52% behind the line, LeBron James has somehow been more efficient than last season with a TS% of 70.1. With Bosh at a 65.1 TS%, Ray Allen at 64.9, and Chris Anderson at 70.9, it's not just LeBron; it's the entire team. Miami's hitting 55.7% of their two-point shots, 43.8% of their three-pointers, and they get to the line at a good rate. It's an amazing offense, and it only stalls when they miss a shot -- which has been uncommon.

2013 Playoffs: Finals

(1) Miami Heat vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs

After all the turmoil of injuries to stars and surprising runs from the Bulls, Warriors, and Pacers, to an extent, it all comes down to the previous champions, with the best record, versus the team with the third best record, and a few titles under their belt. Miami's offense is awe-inspiring at its best, while the Spurs are a deep, balanced team with multiple threats and superb passing at nearly every position. Both teams also play defense well and will make few mistakes. Ignore the uproar about "Stern's team" or any irregularities -- these are two elite teams with hall of fame players going head to head in the finals. Enjoy the great basketball.

What other factors are we ignoring? When judging team strength, you typically use the entire regular season. However, this is unwise in cases where the team made changes during the season. The most notable example is the Detroit Pistons after the Rasheed Wallace trade -- they improved in defensive rating by roughly 8 points and their point differential basically tripled (3.9 to 12.2.) The Heat also took off after a team change, signing Chris Anderson to shore up the frontcourt, although a major reason why they won 27 games in a row was how deadly they were in crunch time. However, before Chris Anderson the Heat were +5.3 in adjusted point differential, and +8.6 in the regular season after his signing. If you include the playoffs, this increases to 9.1. (Spurs are at 6.7) It's hard to differentiate what caused what because with Birdman in the regular season their defense became elite (around 102.6 efficiency), but in the playoffs it's their offense leading the way, although that's partly because I'm calculating an adjusted efficiency and the Heat are scoring well against elite defenses. But seeing Anderson as the catalyst misses the larger issue -- when Wade is healthy, the Heat are a historically strong team. Hence, his awful play versus Indiana can't be ignored, as well as his sudden reemergence in game seven.

Here's the basic reason to be afraid as a Miami Heat fan: the Spurs' defense isn't too far from Indiana's in overall strength, and they have a similar strategy of limiting three-pointers and conceding midrange jumpers. But they are a vastly superior offense with multiple deadly three-point threats, a sophisticated pass-heavy system, and a devastating pick and roll game with Tony Parker. But I don't think it's a simple one-to-one translation here -- Miami ran into difficulties because their weakness, defensive rebounding, played into Indiana's strength, and they had problems defending two strong, huge frontcourt players. David West in particular was problematic because it was a kink in the well-oiled machine: the Heat relied on a supercharged offense propelled by Batter as a strength 4, but Batter can't guard West while West is competent enough on the perimeter to "hide" on a non-scorer like Battier. Versus Diaw or Bonner, this is not an issue, and while Tiago Splitter will cause some problems he's not the same scorer as David West.

Going into the numbers further, the Pacers after Hibbert's wrist injury were a roughly 5 SRS team, while a matchup advantage because of their frontcourt may add another +1, roughly. This means the Heat currently are playing at a +6 SRS level (the sort of team that wins between 56 and 58 games.) The Spurs were slightly better, and with Miami's homecourt advantage this would mean the series is basically even, assuming Wade and Bosh don't improve.

But all the focus on how the Heat are doing is unfair to the Spurs. We've heard enough of Miami at this point, thanks for the streak and all the fanfare of the Heat-bandwagon. Tim Duncan played at defensive player of the year level, knowing exactly when to contest a shot inside, rarely leaving his feet even when blocking shots, and Kawhi Leonard gives them a capable big wing defender. In the modern NBA, defense is about more than having superior athletes or tall players; it's all about the schemes. The Spurs have rededicated themselves to this end and can control even great teams. Last season, they fell to the Thunder partly because they couldn't match with their athleticism, but with Wade's health in question and extended minutes for Ray Allen/Battier/Mike Miller's back this may not be a huge issue. Regardless, it's a team that can send out four elite shooters at once, two seven-footers in a frontcourt, deadly perimeter scoring from Parker and Ginobili, great playmaking from Duncan to Diaw, and one of the best coaches ever. This should not be an easy series.

Again, this all comes down to the health of Wade and Bosh. And Wade's injury is the nagging, painful type he can mostly manage. His great game 7 was probably more of an indicated he gut through pain when needed, rather than him being healed. In predicting a series with unknowns, it's best to split the difference.

Prediction: Heat in six.

What to watch for:
-Wade's health will decide the series. If he's healthy, it's Miami -- no contest. If he's completely unhealthy and never has a good game, the Heat could be crushed.
-Likewise, Bosh is playing on a bad ankle, and the Heat need his midrange jumpers and other contributions.
-Duncan had a season at an age that's nearly unprecedented. It's basically Karl Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar who have similar seasons. Winning a title now, which doesn't seem implausible with this matchup, would historically astounding:  Duncan would have five titles, and he was arguably the best player on each team, and his career would be bookended by some amazing playoff runs.
-One important variable some may overlook: Wade is a great finals player. In 2011 versus Dallas, he put up better numbers than Nowitzki, and of course he has 2006 (even without the refs, he was great.)
-Boris Diaw is quietly one of the oddest players in NBA history. He was drafted as a small forward, found no success on a bad team, went to the seven seconds or less Suns and replaced an explosive Amare Stoudemire, found success as a center, became one of the greatest passing frontcourt players all-time, got traded to the Bobcats, lost his spot in the rotation of arguably the worst team ever, got traded to the Spurs, and helped lead them to the best record in the league. Now he's in the finals and will probably defend LeBron James a few possessions each game -- and he'll do it well.
-The Heat are overly-aggressive on defense guarding the ball, and have a tendency of giving up too many corner three's or other weakside shots. The Spurs are a fantastic passing team and one of the best at shooting from long-range. Keep track of this.
-LeBron needs consecutive titles for people who heavily value titles in all-time player rankings, while Duncan with another title would give him a longevity argument few have. With Wade getting worse and Duncan's age, their opportunities are dwindling in their current environments. This is an important title.

2013 Playoffs: Conference Finals

Eastern Conference

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers

This is a series of matchups. The Pacers are known for a bruising frontcourt, and they rank fourth in the league in offensive rebounding. Heat, meanwhile, are 24th in defensive rebounding, although it's been better after they signed Chris Anderson. This is their biggest weakness and the Pacers are the team to exploit it. The Heat somehow had a good defensive rating (103.7) despite their rebounding, and in fact most teams around their defensive rebound rate are poor defensive teams with the exception of the Celtics. With all the love of smallball lately, there is a reason that for decades and decades, after a whirlwind of changes in race integration to the introduction of the three-point line to hyper-athletic dunking, what has remained constant is height (the average height of the NBA player has not changed in a half-century.) Size is a significant deterrent in defense, and even with the aid of a sophisticated defense, quick feet, and fast hands, big men generally grant you more rebounds. And rebounds will always be valuable. Yes, James is a good enough rebounder to masquerade as a power forward, but as a small forward his rebounding is more valuable -- hence, Cleveland second in the league in defensive rebounding in 2010, and notice the smallball Warriors dead last.

What the Heat do, however, is force turnovers (fifth in the league in opponent turnover rate) while the Pacers, luckily, are 26th. People will focus on the disadvantages the Heat face with the Pacers' size, understandably  but you can't forget these things run both ways. There's a reason the Heat were +7.0 in point differential, ranking near first in offensive ranking at 112.3 points per 100 possessions (+6.5 to league average) and ninth in defensive rating at 103.7 (-2.1).  Pacers, meanwhile, were +3.3 in point differential (SRS) while ranking first in defensive ranking by a hair at 99.8 (-6) but 19th in offense at 104.3 (-1.5). As for another matchup wrinkle, Pacers are second in giving up the least three pointers in the season, and first in three-point percentage defense by a fair margin. Miami shot the sixth most three's and had the second best accuracy. Thanks to a major defensive overhaul, the Pacers defend the line vigorously and flood the paint, sometimes daring players to shoot midrange jumpers instead (the Bulls do this too, as was seen in the playoffs when they let Brook Lopez take open shots.) Bosh, however, is an elite midrange shooter now, and him taking open jumpers is better than most of Indiana's offensive options.

What's important to consider here is that, yes, Pacers have an elite defense, but the Heat have an offense that's just as elite; and the Pacers have a significantly below average offense while the Heat's defense is comfortably above average. This is just an obvious way to say the Heat are the better team, but I think some will get too caught up in the matchups and lose sight of the big picture. Miami may have sacrificed some defense, but the offense is borderline historic, and Indiana is a bad offensive team.

What to watch for:
-Miami starts Haslem because they think it's still 2007 (but honestly it's because the frontcourt is so thin.) It'll be interesting to see who Bosh checks here since Haslem is too short for Hibbert but Bosh is too weak for West.
-Smallball for Miami typically means Battier is the nominal power forward. His defense on West will be very important. In three games against Miami, he was 22.7 points per game on 65.8 FG% versus a season average of 17.1 and 49.8 (his rebounding, interestingly, did not change.)
-Chris Anderson's approach to shotblocking is to fly at a shot attempt and swat it with authority; Hibbert doesn't look for shotblocks as they happen when he's defending the paint by sticking his arms straight up.
-During the regular season Cole was the ingredient to the only bad lineups Miami had. Of the only lineups with at least 100 minutes, seven in total, the only two near average or below average had Cole. Obviously, being a bench player is the problem, but it does go beyond that. If you go by regularized adjusted +/-, he's at -3.3, which was 401st out of 463 players where only eleven played more minutes and had a worse value.
-Wade's health is the key to a title run without big bumps. It's no coincidence the Heat went on a historic win streak when he was healthy.
-We can ignore the Bucks because they were a blip in the radar, but it's now been two playoff series in a row where LeBron hasn't played up to his ridiculous standards. He's had his moments, but they haven't been sustained. His numbers are down, as he's shooting less and his efficiency has regressed. Is he just not trying and saving his energy, or should we be concerned? Indiana will be the first real test because Miami knows they can't sleep on them.

Prediction: Miami in five.

Western Conference

(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (5) Memphis Grizzlies

After a couple series slaying giants, the Grizzlies are everyone's favorite right now, partly due to an uncompromising style. With all the love of Gasol's all around game, Randolph's below the rim play, Tony Allen's physical defense, and the two-way play of Mike Conley, there's a reason the Spurs won more games and had a superior point differential. The Grizzlies are the western conference version of the Pacers -- elite defense, in fact if you adjust for strength of schedule it's a better defense, but they have a below average offense. But after defeating the Clippers, who had a similar point differential and win total to the Spurs, and the Westbrook-less Thunder, still a strong team, should we once again overlook the Grizzlies?

Let's run through the numbers. Spurs have an adjusted point differential of +6.7 with the league's seventh-ranked offense at 108.3 (+2.5) and, surprisingly, the league's third best defense at 100.3 (-4.2.) Memphis, however, has a point differential of +4.3 with the league's 17th ranked offense at 104.9 (-0.9) but the league's second best defense at 100.3 (-5.5), although adjusted for strength of schedule it's the league's best by a whisker. I think people are sleeping on the Spurs -- their defense is barely different from Memphis', and this is with Duncan playing 30 minutes a night, and have not descended into smallball as they start two seven-footers with Tiago Splitter, a Brazilian big man who rolls well to the rim where he shoots near 70%. The hiccups the Spurs had against the Warriors were partly due to Curry's insane shooting, yes, but also due to various ailments like an ankle injury to Splitter, Diaw coming back from a donut-induced trauma, and a virus that infected Duncan.

With homecourt advantage, San Antonio has a pretty strong chance, since it's difficult to have a coaching advantage of Popovich and the size of the Grizzlies isn't a particular concern for the Spurs. Zach Randolph averaged 14 and 10 on 36% shooting versus the Spurs, and yes, Splitter played every game, started most of them, and Duncan even missed a game. They also have the stout and surprisingly good defender Diaw to throw at him. As fun as the Grizzlies are, they rely on inefficient midrange jumpers, while the Spurs have Parker's pick and roll, Duncan's post offense, and long-range bombing -- Danny Green is surprisingly 10th all-time in three-point percentage and Bonner is 14th. Yes, the Grizzlies' defense will blunt those weapons, but they cannot attack with the same ferocity back on offense. It'll be a great series, but I think the two most likely outcomes are Spurs in 5 and Spurs in 7 -- and I'll go with 7 games, in case the Spurs pick up another small injury, as they tend to do.

What to watch for:

-Duncan was arguably the best defensive player in the league, though Gasol deserves an edge for his minutes played. Duncan is a master at contesting without fouling, and actually put up a blocks per foul rate historically great and only bested by gigantic centers like Manute Bol.
-Gasol versus Duncan is a premier center matchup. It'll be a battle of fundamentals, a battle of subtle moves, nice passing, soft touches, and intelligent post defense.
-Parker versus Conley, by contrast, will also be top-flight, where Tony Allen will come in now and again to wreak havoc. Tony Allen, like with the Thunder series, has no point in playing without an elite wing, and would be better matched up to come off the bench.

Prediction: Spurs in seven.

Edit: Fixed error with Spurs' offensive ranking compared to the league average from +3.5 to +2.5.

2013 Playoffs: Second Round, Part II

(1) Miami Heat vs. (5) Chicago Bulls

This one screams "quick four or five game" series, with the safest bet being five games due to Chicago's resilence and the brilliant defensive mastermind of Tom Thibodeau. I've been terrible so far in predicting the playoffs, but to be fair there have been some odd turns. I wasn't surprised seeing Memphis knocking off the Clippers, especially because of the Griffin injury, as I thought it was a coin flip series, but the Nuggets had no business losing to the Warriors. Denver responded to Golden State's smallball often with the large Bogut in the middle by benching their productive bigs leaving Faried to guard the basket, which according to a few physics theorems is basically impossible. Then Chicago beat the Nets despite the talent disparity and Noah's injury, plus the Biblical calamities that fell on the rest of the roster. Be careful walking the stairs, Jimmy Butler. Seriously.

Somehow the Heat get to play under negative SRS (adjusted point differential) team. Strictly going by the numbers, this is more likely a sweep, but again, I trust Thibodeau and an inspired game from this crew. That's pretty much what everyone else is saying about the series, but I think no one understands how bad the Bulls were this year given how weak the east was. They were lucky to win 45 games, and beating the Nets was a upset with their injuries. The Bulls have a brand name, sure, but Thibodeau really needs to be given credit for decimating the Nets' "coaching." Too bad you can't use smoke and mirrors to erase LeBron from the series.

What to watch for:
-At full strength, the Bulls may have the best defense against the Heat with Butler, Hinrich, Deng, Gibson, and Noah.
-Miami has two glaring weaknesses -- big centers and rebounding -- but the Bulls won't be able to fully exploit those.
-They've an above average rebounding team, great on offensive rebounding, but not superhuman like they were a couple years ago.
-While Noah is doing his best impression of Bill Walton/video game character with his health bar near zero but just hit a power-up, he's not enough offensively to attack Miami and hurt them.
-LeBron by his own standards had a lackluster first round, but he was probably bored. If he wants a season for the ages he needs to set up his game.
-There's a good chance the Heat will sweep, and then we'll be bombarded with another win streak.

Prediction: Heat in five.

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Golden State Warriors

I don't think the Warriors know what they got themselves into. They're going into the teeth of a well-oiled machine, and while we've seen the Spurs come up short recently this is an organization that with the exception of a David Robinson injury-plagued season hasn't had a sub-50 win season (lockout seasons adjusted) since 1989, and the big three appear to be fully healthy. Splitter and Diaw are still ailing and recovering, but the Spurs don't need size against the lilliputian Warriors, save Bogut, who goes from guarding Faried, Koufos, or McGee to a resurgent Tim Duncan season. The Spurs have to be happy about Westbrook's injury as much as anyone, because they know as well as anyone that anything can happen once you make it to the finals. Underdogs can win.

Curry's going to be blanketed by a smarter team and bigger defenders. The Warriors won't be able to break out in transition as much. Their three-pointers won't be quite so open. No one noticed, but San Antonio quietly had a great defensive year. If Ginobili is healthy, he's going to shred the Warriors' bench. There are just few positive signs for Golden State and San Antonio will have a couple of big blowouts. They're ecstatic the Warriors found some luck and pulled off an upset, because now it's basically like another first round opponent for Spurs. Like Miami, their path to the finals is being paved by whatever force -- destiny, God, David Stern (obviously, because he loves seeing the bland market of San Antonio prevail again.)

What to watch for:
-Tim Duncan had one of the best seasons ever in terms of avoiding fouls while blocking shots at the rim. The Warriors will come to learn this.
-The Spurs are not a boring franchise, and Ginobili is one of the main reasons why. We don't know how much longer he'll play, or how many more moments he'll have up to his standards, but we're approaching victory lap territory. Cherish the plays.
-I think we're all waiting for the game back in Oakland where Curry makes 9 three's and the crowd sustains jet engine noise for the entirety of the contest. That one they can win.
-David Lee's defense, now a league-wide joke, is going to be hampered by an injury and will face a smart defense and, if things go horribly awry, Lee may end up guarding Duncan on a few plays.
-Is Barnes having a Tayshaun Prince breakout year in the playoffs, like some rookies or young players have, or is this a Trevor Ariza-like three-point streak that will frizzle out the rest of his career?
-Despite Curry's amazing year shooting from outside, his TS% is one-tenth of one percent better than Tony Parker's, because Parker can actually get to the paint and make layups. Lost in Curry's magical season is his inability to get to the rim.

Prediction: Spurs in five games.

Round Two: Eastern Conference

There's already an insane amount of predictions on the internet for the NBA playoff, so I'll keep this short. People think the Heat were given a path with no resistance to the finals, but the Pacers and Celtics aren't bad teams. Besides, the Heat easily got past the Bulls last year; what they need to do is perform in

(2) Miami Heat versus (3) Indiana Pacers

The Pacers don't inspire fear, but they're a better team than they seem and when their best players are on the court they're pretty darn good. Their starting lineup is +15 per 48 minutes, while the Heat's starting lineup is just +9.7. However, those numbers are unadjusted +/-, and as such there are many problems associated. Using an adjusted flavor, the average +/- for the starting lineups for the Pacers and Heat is +2.06 and 2.82, respectively. And it's not like the Pacers have a better bench even compared to the Heat. LeBron didn't play huge minutes versus the Knicks, and I expect their big three to crush any possibility of extending the series.

Prediction: Heat in 5
Random prediction: Hibbert with a 20-20 game.

(8) Philadelphia 76ers versus (4) Boston Celtics

This will be an ugly series. Both teams are great defensively and below average offensively, and given how playoff games have a slower pace than the regular season I expect the final scores to be in the lower 80's. It's like instead of an unstoppable force versus an immovable object it's an immovable object versus an immovable object. But don't focus on the points per game. Instead focus on Garnett's defense, Rondo's passing, Iguodala's dunking and perimeter hawking, Avery Bradley's on-ball pressure, Ray Allen's shooting and Spencer Hawes' strange transformation into a useful basketball player. For me it's a toss-up if the series'll go five or seven games; tweaking the numbers just a little is enough the change the results. I think Boston has the match-up advantage because Boston's guards can control Philly's guards, and Garnett has been playing well enough lately that he'll make Hawes and Brand's lives very hard.

Prediction: Celtics in 5.
Random prediction: Iguodala will have a dunk on Garnett that reminds everyone of how old the Celtic is.