Sunday, November 17, 2013

Miami's Rebounding Belies Stunning Offense

Most NBA sites include offensive rebounding when measuring a team's offensive efficiency including basketball-reference and ESPN. Rebounding does matter in assessing how effective a team is, but it doesn't align with our perception of what a killer offense is. The Miami Heat in going to smallball lineups have tremendous floor-spacing for LeBron and Wade to operate, but with Batter as a "power" forward they're one of the worst offensive rebounding teams ever. They were 26th last season, but so far in the 2014 season after 10 games they're dead last grabbing only 17.7% of the available offensive rebounds -- and the "record" is 19.7 by the 2012 Celtics.

How potent is Miami's offense ignoring rebounds? Using PTS/(FGA+.44*FTA+TOV), it's scary: 104.8. The league average is 91.0. The second place team is far away at 98.1 (the Clippers.) At a +13.7 difference compared to the league average, this is historic. Going back to the introduction of the shot clock, no one has been close. The '71 Bucks destroyed the league with Lew Alcindor (later renamed Kareem) and Oscar Robertson, winning 66 games and a title. Yet they were "only" 9.7 better than the league average. The difference between Miami and the '71 Bucks is the same difference as the second ranked Bucks and the 45th ranked '91 Bulls. This is small sample size theater for Miami, but they do have the fourth best relative rating ever from 2013.


Rank
Season
Team
Diff. MinOffRat
Key players
1
2014
Miami Heat
13.7
LeBron-Wade-Bosh
2
1971
Milwaukee Bucks
9.7
Kareem-Robertson
3
2007
Phoenix Suns
9.3
Nash-Amare-Marion
4
2013
Miami Heat
9.1
LeBron-Wade-Bosh
5
1988
Boston Celtics
8.8
Bird-McHale
6
2005
Phoenix Suns
8.5
Nash-Amare-Marion
7
2008
Phoenix Suns
8.4
Nash-Amare-Shaq
8
2002
Dallas Mavericks
8.2
Dirk-Nash-Finley
9
2004
Sacramento Kings
7.8
Stojakovic-Bibby
10
1982
Denver Nuggets
7.8
Issel-English-Vandeweghe
11
1997
Utah Jazz
7.7
Malone-Stockton-Hornacek
12
2003
Dallas Mavericks
7.5
Dirk-Nash-Finley
13
1998
Utah Jazz
7.5
Malone-Stockton-Hornacek
14
2006
Phoenix Suns
7.4
Nash-Marion
15
1995
Utah Jazz
7.3
Malone-Stockton-Hornacek
16
1998
Seattle SuperSonics
7.1
Payton-Schrempf-Baker
17
2010
Phoenix Suns
7.1
Nash-Amare
18
1987
Boston Celtics
7.1
Bird-McHale
19
2013
Oklahoma City Thunder
7.1
Durant-Westbrook
20
1972
Milwaukee Bucks
7.1
Kareem-Robertson
*MinOffRat: PTS/(FGA+.44*FTA+TOV)
**Ranked by difference of MinOffRat to the league average

In discussing how good offenses are, not everyone includes rebounding. The perception is mainly around making shots and hitting the most efficient ones, limiting turnovers while getting to the line. Shooting 62% from the field and 52% behind the line, LeBron James has somehow been more efficient than last season with a TS% of 70.1. With Bosh at a 65.1 TS%, Ray Allen at 64.9, and Chris Anderson at 70.9, it's not just LeBron; it's the entire team. Miami's hitting 55.7% of their two-point shots, 43.8% of their three-pointers, and they get to the line at a good rate. It's an amazing offense, and it only stalls when they miss a shot -- which has been uncommon.

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