2012 Finals: Thunder v Heat

A battle of two superpowers that could dominate the landscape over the next few years. The Thunder's core of their four best players are only 22.5 years-old on average, while the Heat players are just barely on the older side of the prime age for NBA players. The Heat want to be the next dynasty, but the Thunder are in an arguably better position, especially with their superior front office. The best match-up, however, is Durant versus LeBron, as the finals have rarely seen a duel between guys who went 1-2 on the MVP ballot who play the same position. Jordan-Drexler in '92 was the last time, and Wilt-Thurmond in '67 was the only other instance I could find. Drexler was slated to be Jordan's rival, but after the '92 thrashing Jordan let everyone know he had no peers. Durant-LeBron, given the importance of LeBron winning his first title and Durant's role in trying to usurp him as the best player, and how they're both poised to challenge the all-time scoring record, could end up being one of the greatest finals match-ups in history.

On the surface the match-up would appear to heavily favor the Thunder, who got through dispatching last year's champions the Mavericks, the Lakers and their embarrassment of titles since they drafted Kobe, and top-seeded Spurs who had been decimating the competition. The Heat, meanwhile, needed seven games to oust the injury-riddled and old Celtics and had similar problems against the Celtics. Look more closely, however, and the advantages pile up for the Heat.

The most obvious advantage is that Bosh is finally healthy. Some people may want to discredit the Heat for making it to the finals after Howard, Rose, and others went down with injuries, but they suffered through an injury to their all-star power forward. On a team with no depth, especially in the frontcourt, this was troublesome against the Pacers and Hibbert and the Celtics and Garnett. His box score stats may have declined, but his impact on the court is undeniable: the Heat are simply light-years better when he plays if you look at the record of their games when he's on the court, simple +/-, lineup combinations, and adjusted +/-. He's a tall power forward with long arms, a good jump shot, an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls, and good defense thanks for his quick feet and size.

Depth may have plagued the Heat at times this year, but when their key players are healthy they're hard to stop.  In the playoffs the elite players log more minutes and less are given to the driftwood found at the end of the bench. That means more LeBron and Wade and less Juwan Howard and James Jones. I know this is mentioned a lot by people like John Hollinger, but it's important enough that I have to reiterate its power. Many of the stat-inclined build models that use regular season numbers without any adjustment for greater playing time of the team's stars. Tiny differences can mean the difference between a champion and a team coming away with a handful of nothing.

Weaknesses of each respective team also align in Miami's favor. Miami has problems against big centers as Joel Anthony is quick on his feet but a little small and no one off the bench is any bigger. Having Bosh back in the rotation will help, but he's not the answer to huge centers like Andrew Bynum. Oklahoma City, of course, has no such threat, and even with an amazing offense have few threats in their frontcourt other than an Ibaka 15-footer (feel the earth tremble out of fear from a midrange jumper) Perkins, for instance, is a great counter against low-post brutes, but he's of little use against the Heat. Of course, he'll remain in the starting lineup and rack up major minutes, and Miami is fine with that.

The Thunder have a devastating offense, but their weakness is turnovers. Against a team that can force turnovers and wreck havoc in transition this is a problem. Westbrook gets flak for his tendency to ballhog, but he also rightfully is criticized for his turnovers. Durant has pushed himself into the upper-crust of NBA players, but passing and controlling turnovers is nearly the only area on offense he hasn't conquered. The Thunder were surprisingly last in the league in turnovers, yet they were ranked second in offense. (Spurs were third in turnovers and led the league in offensive efficiency, so go figure.) Using an isolation-heavy attack, they can score on almost anyone one-on-one but can struggle keeping the ball on their side of the court. The Heat were tied for first in turnovers forced per game during the regular season at 15.1, and with Wade and James running in transition it could lead to a lot of easy baskets

But are the Heat better? Is it even close? The Thunder finished 49-17, one better than Miami's 48-18. Point differential was also nearly a wash: +7.1 for OKC and +7.2 for MIA. The Thunder were again second in the league in offensive efficiency at 107.1, but ninth in defense at 100.0 (points allowed per 100 possessions, roughly a whole game.) Miami was sixth in offense with 104.3, but have a superior defense clocking in at fourth with 97.1. However, given the Thunder's home-court advantage, one would think it'd be a close series with the Thunder barely squeaking by, ignoring the aforementioned advantages Miami has. Namely, there is one advantage I'd like to dig into: a top-heavy rotation versus a superior bench. Miami has the better big three, but after that it's all Oklahoma City

Looking closer into the numbers, Miami's advantages are definitely at the top three. For +/- and the adjusted varieties, it's a significant difference. In measuring the effect of that difference I calculated an expected point differential based on how many minutes you get from each player and looking at a couple different lineup scenarios. In each one, and this counts the regularized +/- and basketballvalue's one and two year flavors, Miami had a sizable lead, and this was even with minimizing Derek Fisher's minutes as much as possible.

Here's one example: Miami +2.24, OKC +1.79. Since that's the regularized version, the numbers skew closer to 0 than they would in reality. The minutes I used are close to what players have logged in the playoffs so far with more given to the best players on each side. LeBron and Durant at 43 minutes each, for examples, and I have Bosh at a conservative 33 minutes per game, but that's a complete stab in the dark. I will caution that playing around with numbers in that fashion can lead to results that are decided before you punch in the last numbers, but from an objective standpoint it's hard to argue that the series isn't at the very least even.

As a last point, throw out the numbers and all that damned logic and look at what sports writers look at: the story. LeBron is looking for redemption after a failure in Cleveland from his Herculean efforts, and last year after he teamed up with all-stars as a sort of mercenary group of young stars looking for titles. After winning a third MVP trophy, he's at the prime age for an NBA player at 27 and the history books make so much more sense if he won it this year, so we wouldn't have to add footnotes to his legacy like, "First guy to win three MVPs without a title in the third MVP year.) Having such a dominant player without a title is strange in a star-driven, uneven league where a handful of stars own most of the titles. The Thunder are America's team of likable talent, but the Heat are, as any sports writer would say, grizzled veterans who have everything to lose.

Besides, doesn't Derek Fisher have enough rings?

Prediction: Heat in seven games.
Random prediction: Durant and LeBron combine to average 80-22 in the first three games.

2012 Eastern Conference Finals

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Boston Celtics


Injuries have decimated the east, as Howard, Rose and Bosh completely changed the dynamic, and now with Avery Bradley gone the Celtics lost one weapon they could use against the Heat. I know people are considering the Celtics because Bosh is such an important piece, but the Heat dispatched the Pacers, who are easily the better team than the Celtics as they were completely healthy. True, they needed LeBron and Wade playing at a high level, but with Pierce hampered and Bradley out the dynamic duo performing at an insane level is almost probable at this point. And no, Bosh's absence doesn't mean Garnett will dominate. Kevin's now a full-time center and would have been matched up Joel Anthony most of the game anyway.

I think it's easy to see the Heat winning, but the question is how many games. I'll make this short because there's already enough content out there about the series. It'll be five games for two reasons: 1) The Celtics needed 7 games to oust the 76ers who are not up to Miami's level or the Pacers and 2) Bosh is a (faint, but honestly few people know) possibility of coming back and contributing.


Prediction: Heat in 5.
Random prediction: Rondo and James coincide with a triple double in the same game although James outscores him by 25 or more.

2012 Western Conference Finals

(1) San Antonio Spurs versus (2) Oklahoma City Thunder

As weird as the playoffs have been, the west has been relatively predictable. The one-seed will play the two-seed for the rights to play in the finals, and that top seed is heavily favored. I don't know if everyone has caught on to how good these spurs are, however. The so-called NBA statnerds have noticed the dominating brilliance of the Spurs in the last 40 or so games. To illustrate I made the graph below. It shows a five-game rolling average, which means the average point differential of the past five games, over the entire season with some key points included. The 40 point loss to Portland, for instance, came when few of the rotation players were even on the court, and consequently their average took a dive.

Notice how great they've been in the latter half of the season. A 10-point differential is historic, and anything approaching 20 is unheard of. Suffice it to say I don't think these Spurs are going to have a problem. The weirdest part of all this is that the Spurs really took off when they acquired Diaw, a guy who played his way off arguably the worst team of all-time with his bad play. Diaw, however, is definitely a useful player, but more so on a good team: he refuses to shoot sometimes and instead will pass, which is great on a team who can actually shoot. He's also a surprisingly good defender and an upgrade over the short and unathletic Blair. Ginobili is actually an important piece, and when healthy he gives the Spurs an excellent weapon on a team that's already offensively great. Sorry Thunder. Work on your defense and try again next year. At least you're young.

Prediction: Spurs in 5.
Random prediction: One game will feature both teams over 120 points. Boring Spurs? Not so much.

Round Two: Western Conference

(1) San Antonio Spurs versus (5) LA Clippers

For a number one seed, the Spurs are strangely a wild card. Few people think they're more likely to win it all over, say, the Heat, the pre-injury Bulls or the Thunder even. It's because Popovich is an extreme adherent of the rest your veterans, and anyone, philosophy that Duncan is playing less than 30 minutes a game, causing the perception that he's fallen off because of his per game numbers. Compared to Kobe, who stupidly played a ton of minutes, he's arguably been a much more effective player. Kobe's PER is high because of how many shots he takes, and other rating systems that don't give credit simply for shooting like Wins Produced rate him lower. Duncan actually does have better numbers in some metrics and his adjusted +/- is better at +4.7 overall (4.1 just for his defense) compared to Kobe's +2.4 (all on the offensive end.)

The Clippers are also a strange case for a prediction. Unlike most basketball teams, they do appear to have an ability to perform better in clutch situations. However, what that means really is that they'll outperform their estimated win percentage from their point differential. Their real win percentage, which is boosted by their clutch play, still doesn't make this a close series on paper. I also don't think they have any match-up advantages. Spurs still struggle with big power forwards, but Griffin can't be considered that; Diaw is a surprisingly good defender and Duncan can also help. The Spurs can also reasonably contain Chris Paul and Parker will make him work on the other end.

The Spurs are the number one seed with a great record and they've been blowing teams out. They did all this even with playing their stars obscenely low minutes and without one of their most effective players, Ginobili, for most of the year. Everyone's healthy at the right time. I won't over-think this.

Prediction: Spurs in 5.
Random prediction: Duncan won't play a single game of 40 minutes or above even though it's the second round.

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder versus (3) LA Lakers

The reason causal fans overrate the Lakers is because they have the star power including productive big men but no bench and Kobe, like I explained above, has masked his reduced effectiveness by gunning so much that his points per game stays high. Normally I would say the combo of Gasol and Bynum would be too much for a frontline, but Perkins has had some rest, Collison will do better at keeping Bynum from receiving deep post position than people would think and Ibaka can clean mistakes. Most importantly the Thunder have perimeter players who hit shots at incredible rates in Durant and Harden, and Westbrook though much maligned isn't bad either.

Ultimately, what it's going to come down to is the Thunder are simply a better team. The seeding doesn't show that. The Thunder's offensive rating if 107.1 and defensive 100.0. Lakers? 103.3 and 101.7. That's +7.1 versus +1.6. Sure, Artest has given Durant trouble in the past, but in three games this year against Artest (World Peace) Durant has averaged 29.7 points and Oklahoma's other two weapons are potent enough now that Durant doesn't even have to score 25 or 30 points. The west isn't the Lakers' turf anymore (last year they were disappointing in the playoffs and then lost Odom in the offseason) and the Thunder are a tier above them.

Prediction: Thunder in 5.
Random prediction: Bynum and Ibaka will combine for 15 blocks in one game.

Round Two: Eastern Conference

There's already an insane amount of predictions on the internet for the NBA playoff, so I'll keep this short. People think the Heat were given a path with no resistance to the finals, but the Pacers and Celtics aren't bad teams. Besides, the Heat easily got past the Bulls last year; what they need to do is perform in

(2) Miami Heat versus (3) Indiana Pacers

The Pacers don't inspire fear, but they're a better team than they seem and when their best players are on the court they're pretty darn good. Their starting lineup is +15 per 48 minutes, while the Heat's starting lineup is just +9.7. However, those numbers are unadjusted +/-, and as such there are many problems associated. Using an adjusted flavor, the average +/- for the starting lineups for the Pacers and Heat is +2.06 and 2.82, respectively. And it's not like the Pacers have a better bench even compared to the Heat. LeBron didn't play huge minutes versus the Knicks, and I expect their big three to crush any possibility of extending the series.

Prediction: Heat in 5
Random prediction: Hibbert with a 20-20 game.

(8) Philadelphia 76ers versus (4) Boston Celtics

This will be an ugly series. Both teams are great defensively and below average offensively, and given how playoff games have a slower pace than the regular season I expect the final scores to be in the lower 80's. It's like instead of an unstoppable force versus an immovable object it's an immovable object versus an immovable object. But don't focus on the points per game. Instead focus on Garnett's defense, Rondo's passing, Iguodala's dunking and perimeter hawking, Avery Bradley's on-ball pressure, Ray Allen's shooting and Spencer Hawes' strange transformation into a useful basketball player. For me it's a toss-up if the series'll go five or seven games; tweaking the numbers just a little is enough the change the results. I think Boston has the match-up advantage because Boston's guards can control Philly's guards, and Garnett has been playing well enough lately that he'll make Hawes and Brand's lives very hard.

Prediction: Celtics in 5.
Random prediction: Iguodala will have a dunk on Garnett that reminds everyone of how old the Celtic is.

2012 Playoff Predictions

Note: I first wrote my playoff predictions Saturday morning before the games started, but I apparently lost that copy. I did, however, remember my picks, and yes I did this before Rose tore his ACL. Since everyone in the basketball-sphere is doing this, I'll make predictions too.

East: First round

Chicago Bulls (1) versus Philadelphia 76ers (8)

Prediction: Bulls in five.

Miami Heat (2) versus New York Knicks (7)

Prediction: Heat in five.

Indiana Pacers (3) versus Orlando Magic (6)

Prediction: Indiana in four.

Boston Celtics (4) versus Atlanta Hawks (5)

Prediction: Boston in five.


West: First round

San Antonio Spurs (1) versus Utah Jazz (8)

Prediction: Spurs in five.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2) versus Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Thunder in five.

Los Angeles Lakers (3) versus Denver Nuggets (6)

Prediction: Lakers in seven.

Memphis Grizzlies (4) versus Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Prediction: Memphis in seven.


East: Second round


Chicago Bulls (1) versus Boston Celtics (4)

I'm going with what I would have picked if Rose had been healthy.

Prediction: Bulls in six.

Miami Heat (2) versus Indiana Pacers (3)

Prediction: Heat in five.



West: Second round

San Antonio Spurs (1) versus Memphis Grizzlies (4)

Prediction: Spurs in seven.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2) versus Los Angeles Lakers (3)

Prediction: Thunder in seven.


East: Conference finals


Chicago Bulls (1) versus Miami Heat (2)

Prediction: Heat in six.


West: Conference finals


San Antonio Spurs (1) versus Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

Prediction: Thunder in six.



Finals

Miami Heat (2) versus Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

Prediction: Heat in six.