Western Conference Finals: Spurs and Thunder

The discussion on these finals is mostly how the Thunder will fare without Ibaka and how the athletic Thunder are the antidote to San Antonio's precision passing and movement. It's hard to say what exactly the Thunder will do without Ibaka on the team since he only missed 3 games in the past 3 seasons. But we could also have the same finals we've seen the past couple years, barring Indiana making it past Miami. However, Chicago and Utah met two times in a row, and no one downplays the brilliance of the '98 finals. This should be an enjoyable series, and the loss of Ibaka makes this a fresh matchup with some unpredictability.

-This is an opportunity for Oklahoma City to play small with Durant as the nominal PF and try to blow San Antonio out of the water. The Thunder can go small without too much concern because the second big man for the Spurs is usually either Splitter or Diaw -- you can live with them shooting more often.

-I'm not one for calling out a coach, but I'm afraid Scott Brooks will respond to the loss of Ibaka by playing Perry Jones and Caron Butler heavy minutes. San Antonio would clobber them.

-In the game this season without Ibaka, Perry Jones started. It's worthwhile to note Utah was the opposition, and their "PF" was Richard Jefferson/Marvin Williams.

-In two games without Ibaka in 2013, Nick Collison started one and played heavier minutes; Jones started the other game. Perhaps Brooks wanted Collison matched up with Scola in one game and was fine with Jones in the other since it's easier to hide someone on Hickson.

-My own basic team strength metric has San Antonio with a +1.5 point advantage. This includes the playoff games so far. However, when you vary the strength metric by opposition strength, the Thunder are better versus elite teams.

-Tony Parker is also a bit limited, but with a long rest period he could be completely fine. This is what to watch for in the first game.

-There's a rust versus rest argument here, which has been overshadowed by the Ibaka news. The results are unclear with respect to rust and rest, but from my own analysis rust is not harmful.

-The good thing about doing a post right before tip-off: there's news Collison will start. Brooks did start him last season, so it's not a complete surprise. And as Pelton noted, the Collison-Durant pair destroys opponents.

Prediction: San Antonio in seven.

Team................	Team rating (point diff.)	Strength variance	Team rating versus +3 team	Team rating versus +6 team
Oklahoma City Thunder	6.73	0.39	8.49	10.25
Los Angeles Clippers	7.32	0.08	8.15	8.97
San Antonio Spurs	8.24	-0.49	7.35	6.46
Houston Rockets	5.00	0.05	5.75	6.50
Golden State Warriors	4.97	-0.32	4.61	4.24
Dallas Mavericks	3.21	0.18	4.33	5.45
Miami Heat	4.04	-0.20	4.02	4.00
Portland Trail Blazers	3.96	-0.27	3.72	3.49
Indiana Pacers	3.45	-0.11	3.72	3.99
Phoenix Suns	3.05	-0.03	3.54	4.03
Minnesota Timberwolves	3.03	-0.22	2.97	2.91
Toronto Raptors	2.11	0.08	2.93	3.75
Memphis Grizzlies	2.12	-0.02	2.64	3.16
Chicago Bulls	0.83	0.10	1.73	2.62
New York Knicks	-1.37	0.51	0.75	2.87
Washington Wizards	0.82	-0.28	0.56	0.30
Brooklyn Nets	-1.13	0.06	-0.36	0.42
Atlanta Hawks	-0.57	-0.26	-0.77	-0.97
Denver Nuggets	-1.43	-0.14	-1.27	-1.10
New Orleans Pelicans	-2.03	-0.06	-1.60	-1.18
Sacramento Kings	-2.10	-0.11	-1.82	-1.55
Detroit Pistons	-4.11	0.56	-1.83	0.45
Charlotte Bobcats	-0.94	-0.53	-1.93	-2.92
Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.83	-0.10	-3.54	-3.25
Boston Celtics	-4.90	0.03	-4.23	-3.57
Orlando Magic	-5.85	0.24	-4.54	-3.23
Los Angeles Lakers	-5.29	-0.45	-6.06	-6.83
Utah Jazz	-6.22	-0.39	-6.80	-7.38
Milwaukee Bucks	-8.43	0.32	-6.89	-5.34
Philadelphia 76ers	-10.66	-0.39	-11.25	-11.84

Eastern Conference Finals: Hibbert and Bynum's Freaky Friday

A couple months ago when Indiana was flounder and the basketball world was awaiting the playoffs, we all worried the eastern conference would be a pointless slog. However, Indiana righted the ship, and they defeated a good Washington team with relative ease. Hibbert, in particular, has made a great comeback. It was seemingly an overnight transformation from a staggering zombie to the old defensive whiz we had known from earlier in the season -- he even rediscovered his offensive game.

But what caused his slump? What's odd is that he's done this before. After the large contract extension last season, he struggled with his shooting touch. Before the all-star game he averaged only 10.0 points per game on a ghastly 41.4 FG%, and after his scoring increased to 15.7 points on a 50.8 FG%. All his other stats had remained stable, and there were reports a nagging wrist injury destroyed his offensive game for the first half of the season. So by the all-star break last season, he was being called a massive disappointment on his large contract, and jump ahead a year to this season's all-star break he was a centerpiece defensive player who looked like a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. But after the all-star break, not only did his scoring and shooting percentages drop, everything did.  What happened?

Hibbert's all-star game splits are pretty astounding, but there's another factor here: the Bynum trade. Although Bynum barely played, his time on the team had a suspicious negative effect. Indiana played worse for multiple reasons -- it's rarely just one cause, even though everyone likes to posit their own theory -- and one of them was Evan Turner's quiet disaster on the court, but you can't blame Turner for Hibbert. What's strange is that Hibbert improved immediately after Bynum was released from the team in the playoffs.

The results are striking. His scoring decreased, and it was from both angles: his shooting efficiency plummeted to pathetic levels and he shot less often. Unfortunately, even though he assisted less often, his turnovers slightly increased. His rebounding fell off too, and it was in both areas. He even blocked less shots.

Bynum	PTS/75 poss	TS%	Usage	TOV/75 poss	OREB%	DREB%	Blk/75 poss	Ast%	GmSc/75 poss
With	15.9	53.4	20.2	2.3	11.3	16.5	3.2	6.9	13.4
Without	11.9	45.2	18.2	2.5	7.7	12.0	2.6	4.8	7.0

Game score is a basic summation of box score stats invented by Hollinger as a single-game PER statistic. It was nearly chopped in half, which is, frankly, astounding. The graph below shows a 5-game rolling average; it shows how well he does in five game chunks (weighted by recency, so the most recent game is more important.) It's not perfect, but Hibbert's slide is apparent, and he hit a low point, obviously, versus Atlanta, and then had a meteoric rise to close the series and then help defeat Washington. It appears Hibbert progressively got worse as the season went on before hitting rock bottom in the playoffs, but it's a curious coincidence Hibbert improved considerably once Bynum was released.

.There are likelier causes to Hibbert's swoon. For instance, he put on extra muscle weight in the off-season, and it may have been too much for his 7' 2" frame to get through the season. When his game sank and his foot speed diminished, he also lost his confidence -- that's a possibility. Or, of course, when Bynum was signed he switched bodies with Roy Hibbert a la Freaky Friday, and Bynum's lack of effort led to Hibbert's awful second half of the season, while Hibbert was sidelined in Bynum's body. Just tell everyone the numbers support this theory.

Series notes:

-Miami is the magic elixir for Indiana's offense. Last season their offensive rating was 104.3, and against Miami in the playoffs they scored 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Since Miami is an above average defense, that's a fairly significant increase.

-LeBron's been playing historically good offensively in the playoffs, but he shouldn't be ignored because of the lowly eastern conference; they have been playing good defenses. (The Nets have had a good defense since January.)

-Hibbert, as highlighted above, was terrible during the second half of the season, but he did destroy Greg Oden in a late season game, and Oden has barely played since then. That's quite remarkable, and a sad twist in a strange tale of two centers.

-Last playoffs Wade couldn't crack a 50 TS%, and now he's hanging around 55 TS%. It's a bit astounding LeBron won a title with Wade being unable to shoot well for most of the playoffs; he gets little credit for that.

-Paul George, meanwhile, is averaging 22/9 with a 57 TS% and great defense. The fickle NBA audience has turned on him already, but he's lived up to the hype.

-At the beginning of the season I criticized Miami heavily for going after Beasley because I felt that even Beasley at his best is the wrong fit. He had a good start to the season, but then faded and lost a spot in the rotation due to poor defense. And when replaced by virtually everyone else on the team, the team is better. Sorry for being right, Miami.

-Homecourt advantage is tossed around a lot when discussing series outcomes, but I've seen very little detailing the important of homecourt advantage in the playoffs. People probably assume the same kind of strength as in the regular season but without any stats backing up that claim; however, I do think most people actually think homecourt advantage is greater in the playoffs. The complicating factors are that better teams play more often on homecourt and there's no back-to-back games in the playoffs -- since more away teams play on the end of a back-to-back, this reduces the strength of HCA. But looking at the past three playoffs (2011 to 2013), and adding a "virtual" game to any series with an odd number of games so that teams have the same number of home and away games, homecourt advantage is +3.84. That's much greater than the typical value assumed (3.2) -- and without back-to-back games, it drops to a mere 2.8. Given how strong the crowds are in the playoffs, this shouldn't be a surprise.

-Full season results are more predictive than post all-star break results for teams -- which does not bode well for Miami. If Indiana is back, they should not be lightly handled.

-Miami beat Brooklyn by an average of 5.4 points per game. Since Brooklyn was a +1.4 point differential team after January first (when their rotation settled after dealing with injuries) in a weak conference, this suggests Miami is a +6 strength team. Miami also beat Charlotte by 10 a game, and since Charlotte was a -1 SRS team that suggests a strength of +9. By reasonable estimates in the playoffs, Miami has been a (roughly) +7.5 team. The assertion that they were coasting in the regular season and would shift a gear in the playoffs is at the very least plausible. Having Wade for every game, of course, is a tremendous help. The only problem now is a recovered Indiana team that matches up well.

-Indiana took game 1, but the game was an offspring of the past few games we've seen from them. Hibbert and West bully their way inside, while Miami makes runs when Indiana goes to their bench. This should be another close series. 

The Hibbert Space Problem in Atlanta

The popular term now is "basketball analytics" -- it's all about numbers and statistics and advanced metrics. A word that's used far too often, however, is scientific. Scientific basketball is the ideal. It's about testable theories that are verifiable and reproducible. If you think that age matters in the playoffs, then prove it with real numbers with open methodology that can be tested by everyone else.

A few days ago, I wondered why Indiana didn't play Hibbert whenever Brand was on the floor. If Hibbert being stuck on the perimeter is the problem, then stick him on the one guy without three-point range. I was surprised by how infrequent this simple action was, but luckily Indiana played two games versus Atlanta in the regular season where Antic was unavailable and non three-point shooters Ayon and Brand played center (these were the only two regular season games Indiana won, and it seemed like a harbinger of things to come.)

The Hawks are a test lab of sorts for five-out basketball where everyone can shoot and the results were pretty terrifying for the Pacers despite the lack of star power on the other side of the court. For another site, I started a series on the power of spacing -- that outside shooting has a significant effect on defense even excluding the added benefit of efficiency. This is more pronounced with big men. Why is that? You're drawing out interior defenders far away from the basket, which they're supposed to protect. Hibbert, for instance, derives most of his value from guarding the basket. Think of this: besides his rim protection, what does Hibbert do? He is not above average in any other area with the exception of FT% for a center (for his career he's near league average in offensive rebounding compared to centers.) If you take away his rim protection and put his 7' 2" frame on the perimeter where his defense can be shaky, he is much less valuable.

Testing this, I collected all the play-by-play data for the Hawks and Pacers this season, and calculated the offensive efficiency of both teams given three situations: when every big man is a floor-spacer like Pero Antic, Paul Millsap, and Mike Scott; when there's at least one big man without three-point range like Elton Brand or Gustavo Ayon; and overall.

The defense is worse with Hibbert, which isn't surprising to anyone who saw the series, but that's true of every situation. This is a little alarming when you consider Hibbert is mostly aligned with his other starters and not the bench players, who are far worse defenders -- Scola, Turner, et al. Mahinmi was a better defender for the Pacers against Atlanta, but when looking at how the Pacers fare with the two centers in similar lineups this was true for the entire season.

Table 1: Atlanta’s offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)

	With Hibbert	Without Hibbert	Difference
Overall	103.3	100.4	+2.9
3PT center	104.8	102.5	+2.3
No 3PT center	100.0	97.5	+2.5

*Note: it's not an error that the overall difference is greater than the other two categories because the with and without Hibbert columns have a different number of possessions for each category. 

Yet Indiana still plays better with Hibbert when a non-3PT shooting threat is on the court. Why is this? Indiana's offense unexpectedly takes off, and it's better with Hibbert. However, when there are three-point shooters in the game, their offense is much worse when Hibbert is on the court. I'm not sure why this is, since Brand is still a good defender, but so is Antic. This is also a case of noise with raw +/- data washing out any useful information. Or maybe, Hibbert struggling against Antic or Millsap translates to frustration on the other end of the court.

Table 2: Indiana’s offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)

	With Hibbert	Without Hibbert	Difference
Overall	97.0	103.6	-6.6
3PT center	88.7	99.4	-10.7
No 3PT center	113.9	109.0	+4.9

It's still curious the Pacers didn't maximize the time coinciding with a non-3PT shooting threat for Atlanta and Hibbert -- that happened just 38.5% of the time, and excluding the two games Antic missed it's only 23.5%. They did play a bit better with him on the court guarding Brand or Ayon. The numbers state Indiana's defense with Hibbert isn't affected by the outside shooting, but it's hard to reconcile that with what happened on the court. As basketball becomes more scientific, we don't dump these results and hide the confusion; we embrace the surprises and try to find answers. Perhaps we need to adjust for something else, like Scola-Turner playing with Hibbert against Brand more often. Perhaps Hibbert isn't as bad defending the line as we thought, and the problem is that he's just flat-out worse overall. The struggle to answer this question, the journey for knowledge, is the path for enlightenment.

Whatever's happening to Hibbert, it's all-encompassing. And it's destroying Indiana's season.