Kevin, It's Not Your Fault

History has given us important lessons that we soon forget. With Minnesota in danger of missing the playoffs again while Kevin Love delivers one of the most impressive seasons in recent years by most metrics, we're going to be treated to countless arguments about how he doesn't deserve to be on an all-NBA team or an MVP ballot because "he" failed to lead his team to the promised land. But before we use some archaic, color-by-numbers approach to evaluate a player, we should use some perspective and context -- this is a time when an ocean of statistics are available and every play is available for viewing online. We can do better than "his team didn't make the playoffs."

Looking to history for similar situations

Years ago, one of the most intimidating, giant, and highly skilled players, an MVP and statistical monster, missed the playoffs in two straight seasons during his prime, even while playing heavy minutes. The conventional wisdom has always been that you cannot be a superstar if you fail to lead your team to the extra-season, but he broke those rules and caused people to question either how good he was or how we perceived team success. It was difficult to argue what more he could have done because he filled up the stat-sheet in numerous categories with gargantuan numbers. Was he not a leader? Was he only playing for his own stats? Later, when paired with better players, he coincidentally won a championship and the critiques faded away; he was now a "winner."

Today, that player, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, is regarded as one of the best players of all-time. The consensus is that he's at least the third best player ever and maybe even higher. Media figures like to use the line "you can't be a star if you can't lead your team to the playoffs," including Bill Simmons, who said back in 2006 said, "Can you name another alleged "superstar in his prime" who missed the playoffs for two straight seasons?" Somehow he missed Kareem, and this is a guy who watched Kareem in person back in the 70's and wrote a book on the history of the league.

And it's not just Kareem. Barkley missed the playoffs in 1988 and won only 36 games, while repeating the feat in 1992 with 35 wins before being traded to a better team the next season, where he immediately went to the finals (that should sound familiar.) Moses Malone, loved by the old-guard and the mainstream media, missed the playoffs in 1978 and won 41 and 40 games, respectively, in 1980 and 1981, though he still managed to pick up three MVPs between 1979 and 1983. He also joined a talented 76ers team with a superstar in Dr. J along with a great supporting cast in Bobby Jones and Mo Cheeks, among others, and they had been going deep in the playoffs every season, including three finals appearances in the six seasons before Moses.

Kobe missed the playoffs in 2005 after Shaq left and nearly missed again in 2006; the 2014 Wolves may actually match their win total but could miss out due to the abnormally strong western conference. Olajuwon had four straight seasons of mediocre 40 to 46 win teams while he was in his 20's, but always gained entry to the playoffs due to the weak conference at the time, except later in 1992 when, in the prime of his career at age 29, they managed a meek 42 wins.

Some of the greatest players of all-time have either missed the playoffs in their prime or failed to clear the 0.500 Mendoza line. If even the best players ever near the top of their games can't push every team they have past 45 wins or worse, then why can't Kevin Love be an elite player when they're on pace for 40 to 42 wins with a point differential that suggests an even stronger team? People will cite how he's never been to the playoffs and will even include his 2013 injury-plagued season, but they fail to study the context, which is especially relevant for one of the most incompetent franchises in the modern era.

But the most similar case, arguably, happened with the same franchise less then ten years ago and they, oddly enough, share the same first name. Kevin Garnett missed three straight playoffs while averaging 22 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks a game. In fact, Garnett's only one of five players in NBA/ABA history who have led their teams in total points/rebounds/assists/blocks/steals, and he narrowly missed the feat (by only six blocks) in 2005. He also missed the feat in 2006 by a measly four steals. He missed the playoffs, but what more could he have done as the leading scorer, passer, rebounder, and defender?

If you thought Garnett was just a "good stats on a bad team" player, then the ultimate test would be to put him on a team with good players and a good coach, and, obviously, that's exactly what happened. The result, even though Garnett was a little past his prime? A dominating season with one of the best modern defenses of all-time, and a championship that included several lopsided wins. (People cite their losses, but overall a point differential of 5.2 is very strong even for a title team. Hollinger rated it as the 10th best finals team in league history in 2011.)

We've had a prime example of a power forward named Kevin putting up monster numbers for a non-playoff team where people feared he really wasn't a winner, and it was thoroughly refuted, proving that a more comprehensive and thoughtful analysis is needed than "his team didn't go to the playoffs."

Kevin Love's incredible season

People generally rate players based on their basic box score averages, however flawed that is. He excels here since he does pretty much everything on offense, including things not captured by basic stats, and he remains one of the best rebounders in the league.

25.6 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists.

The list of people who have matched those averages is extremely short. Only Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, Billy Cunningham, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar have averaged at least 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assists a game. And those seasons were aided by the high pace of the early NBA, inflating rebound totals and other stats. In fact, looking at per possession stats, no one else matches Love's combination of high volume, high efficiency scoring, elite rebounding, and great passing: a usage of at least 28, a TS% above 58, a rebound rate above 19, and an assist rate above 19 (via basketball-reference.) Relaxing the thresholds to a usage of at least 27 (remember league average is 20, and the league leader is typically a little over 30), a TS% of 56 (above league average comfortably), a rebound rate of 18 (still elite, especially for a high scorer), and an assist rate above 17 (assisting on 17% of his teammate's field goals), there are a handful of seasons that qualify since turnovers were first tracked: Kareem in '78, Barkley in '95 and '96, Shaq in '00 and '01, Duncan in '02, '03 and '07, Garnett in '04, and now Kevin Love in '14. That's a list of some of the greatest, well-rounded big men in league history, and Kevin Love is among them. These "one of X players to average this" lists can be arbitrary, but those are all important stats and the standards were relaxed significantly under what Love is doing now.

People counter that Love's points come from "garbage" plays and he only scores in situations like an offensive rebound put-back. It's frustrating to hear that criticism because this is an era where we have an dizzying array of stats and video available. Then there's something basic like his offensive rebounding numbers this year have been low, under 10%, partly due to all his outside shots. Synergy, for example, tracks play types, and you can quickly check how often he scores off cuts, offensive rebounds, post-up plays, etc.

Love favorably compares to other noted interior scorers. Although Kevin's post-up plays are fairly low relative to some of the other scorers, he's in the range of Blake Griffin and Duncan, and he manufactures more of his points from spotting up. If you're going to argue that this is somehow less valuable than posting-up, ignoring how often Love does produce in those plays, then I'll point to the success of many, many modern teams who don't use their big men in this fashion and take more three-pointers than average. Also, as Zach Lowe has pointed out here (near the bottom at number 8 in the list), his accurate outside shooting perplexes and stresses defenses, making it easier for his teammates to score. And by trading in a few post-up plays for spotting up behind the line, he's also more efficient than otherwise and draws out big men from the paint. As the final nail in the coffin that Kevin Love isn't a "real" scorer and lives off garbage shots, he generates 8.3 free throws per 36 minutes, which has only by done by only five other players this season: Durant, Griffin, Harden, Cousins, and Howard.

	Play..types....	Post-up	Isolation	Cuts	Offensive rebounds	Spot-up
Kevin Love	Per game	5.8	1.7	1.7	2.7	3.4
	Points per play	0.90	0.80	1.24	1.19	1.13
Blake Griffin	Per game	6.9	1.2	2.0	1.5	2.8
	Points per play	0.96	0.91	1.25	1.16	0.88
DeMarcus Cousins	Per game	7.8	1.9	1.7	2.7	2.1
	Points per play	0.90	0.77	1.25	1.11	0.88
Tim Duncan	Per game	5.0	0.5	2.2	1.3	1.9
	Points per play	0.89	0.62	1.15	1.34	0.85
LaMarcus Aldridge	Per game	9.8	1.1	1.4	1.6	3.4
	Points per play	0.88	0.89	1.27	1.29	0.88
Zach Randolph	Per game	11.0	1.0	1.4	2.6	1.0
	Points per play	0.88	0.58	1.08	1.08	0.79

If you believe Love's numbers are somehow empty, then we're talking about "impact" and there are a new breed of statistics for this -- plus/minus. If his numbers don't actually help his team win, then we shouldn't see an appreciable difference for when he's out of the game; but this isn't true. When he's on the court, Minnesota scores 111.6 points per 100 possessions, which would equate to one of the best offenses in the league, while off the court the team falls to 98.0 points per 100 possessions, which is worse than any other team in the league. They're also a little better defensively when he's on the court, translating to a 16.6 difference when he's on the court compared to off.

If you think that's because of a bad bench and Love sharing minutes with Pekovic and Rubio, one website, talkingpractice, has three different versions of adjusted plus/minus showing that he's indeed a very valuable player. One method calculates a prior rating from a machine learning statistical plus minus to use in an RAPM model (meaning, it's a mix of traditional stats and plus/minus), and Love is ranked third in the league just behind Durant and Curry. But if you want a "pure" plus/minus that knows nothing about a player's stats and only how his team performs when he's on the court compared to off, his non-prior informed RAPM is very strong at +3.6, while another method that uses only a previous season's RAPM as a prior has him at +3.9, which is 12th in the league. Simply put, there is no evidence to suggest that Love's stats are empty and that they don't translate to the team level because, even with advanced models using different methods, his team is much better when he's on the court.

Video evidence

With the availability of video of every play this season, it's lazy to call Love a garbage scorer without first checking the evidence. To remove any doubt he does have a post-game, if the stats weren't enough by showing his post-up frequency, the fifth video in this playlist shows Love going up against the best defense in the league and a good defender in David West. He gets the ball from Rubio, backs his way closer to the basket, and makes a hook shot over West in the paint. 

So yes, Love can score in the post even over a tough defense. Going through the video, he uses the hook shot a lot, including a running hook across the paint. Another common weapon is a turnaround jumper that utilizes his nice touch. He can also seal a deep post position, and can either score easily over his shoulder or use pump fake and get to the line. But his real value is the diversity and range of his skillset. Look at this playlist of shots versus the the top five Warriors defense. There's a hook shot from far away. Then he drives hard to the basket finishing over Bogut. The third video is a contested jumper in David Lee's face, and the fourth a turnaround jumper similar to Aldridge's prime move. Then in the fifth video he shows off his running hook across the lane More of his repertoire is shown below in a game versus the Thunder (a top five defense with good big men defenders.)

Faces up against Ibaka, drives to the rim, pump fakes, gets fouled and makes the shot:

Faces up against Ibaka again, one min. to go and down by two, drives, spins and hits hook shot:

Fights for position against the much bigger Steven Adams, ends up one foot from the basket, easy lay-in:

Spin move against Ibaka while down two points with 27 seconds to go:

If you're not convinced, you can watch him torch one of the other best defenses in the league (the Spurs) for 42 points, and yes, Duncan was playing (though Splitter was out.) He's a devastating offensive player because of his wide variety of moves, use of space, awareness of where to be, and his range. He's great at stepping back quickly behind the line and draining a shot, putting undue pressure on the defense because they're not used to a power forward who can hit those shots -- especially not one who can also handle the ball, drive, or pass. He's the modern 25/13 big man everyone has been waiting for, posting up, crashing the boards, or draining shots from 24 feet. To add insult to injury for any defense planning for him, he's one of the best passers in the frontcourt, and one of the best outlet passers since Wes Unseld.

(Sources: here and here.)

There is some merit to the criticisms about his defense, but they're usually overblown. Players lacking athleticism and size face an unfair amount of negative attention for defense, but if they compete and stay with their team's principles they're usually not liabilities unless they're very old. The best example here is Steve Nash, as most people didn't realize Phoenix's real problem on defense was Amare Stoudemire inside. The most reliable defensive stats we have now come from plus/minus data, and referring to the Talkingpractice blog Kevin Love is slightly above a net zero (i.e. league average.) His Synergy stats are nothing troubling either: 0.88 points per play allowed, with 0.74 on isolation plays (ranked 73rd overall) and 0.73 in the post (ranked 42nd.) For reference, league average offenses like the Knicks score 0.93 points per play overall, and the numbers of iso and post players are generally above 0.8. He's also taken 11 charges this season, tied for sixth in the league. Evidence of Love being enough of a liability to wash out his impact on offense is lacking, unless people (unfairly) rely on things like athleticism and skin color.

Kevin Love is not their problem in the clutch

While people criticize Love for not being able to lead a team to the playoffs, it would surprise most that by some basic measures of team strength Minnesota is actually one of the strongest teams in the league, with a better adjusted point differential than teams like the Miami Heat. Currently, the Wolves are eighth in the league in SRS, basketball-reference's simple rating system, which should translate to a 32-19 record and a 6th weed. Unfortunately, they're 24-27 in reality, ranked 11th in the west. How does a team's point differential not match with their win-loss record? Typically, it's either from a strange number of one-sided blowouts or a team losing/winning most of its close games. Minnesota is 1-12 in games decided by four points or less, while they've blown teams out by 15 or more points twelve times but only lost by 15 or more two times. They've lost so many close games it's unlikely to stem from "luck." Blowouts, however, are still important to judge the strength of a team going forward, including how they do in the playoffs, but their collapses in close games are troubling.

(Note: people will usually cite the 4 points or less statistic because the Wolves are 1-1 in games decided by five points, and 1-12 looks worse.)

Kevin Love's TS% in clutch situations, where there are five minutes left in the game and the score is within five points, is only 47.9, but shooting percentages dive in these situations league-wide. It's a few spots below the league average, but for comparison Aldridge shoots 47.6%, Dragic 47.4%, and Joe Johnson, whose all-star berth was buoyed by recent game-saving plays, also shoots 47.4%. So to say that Minnesota is one of the most abnormally bad teams in the clutch because of Kevin Love is misguided. He increases his usage rate from 27 to 31 (he's not shying away from the spotlight) and his shooting percentages are not far from the league average in close games and from other star players who are known for heroics.

The culprit here is Rubio. He has been an outright disaster. Using stats.NBA.com's tool and only for players with at least 10 of these games with three minutes per game, Rubio is ranked 151st in the league out of 155 by the NBA's all-in-one "PIE" metric. (Their equivalent of PER.) He has an effective field-goal percentage of 16.7 percent in these situations and a 31.9 TS% (the TS% is boosted by Rubio going to the line for intentional fouls.) Needless to say, 16.7 percent is awful. And their backup point guard, Barea, has been even worse with a 14.3 TS% and fewer assists than Rubio. Kevin Martin and Brewer shoot well in those situations though, but they're feeding off either Rubio or Love. Having a point guard who's a historically bad shooter is enough of a burden for an offense, as defenses can key in on the other players on the court and sag off Rubio, but one who's even worse when the game is close can stall an offense. And their fast break attacks are less common when the game slows down due to all the timeouts. Their offense is a little less effective in the half-court.

The offense, however, with Love shouldering a large burden with the wings Martin and Brewer shooting well, isn't the worst part. Their offensive rating with five minutes to go and within five points is only 99.1, according to stats.NBA.com, compared to their overall average of 104.7, but their defensive rating is 134.9, a ridiculous number, to put it simply. Of course, people love to blame the star for a team's defense, and not anyone else, but there's more at work here. Opponents shoot 45% from behind the arc compared to the season average of 36% -- it's hard to say that's all Kevin's fault here. If you want to blame Kevin's lack of rim protection, opponents are scoring 32 points in the paint per 48 minutes in the clutch; the season average for Minnesota opponents is 45. Ergo, the defense doesn't collapse from his inability to stop players inside. Another factor is that the opposing team is pulling down an obscenely high rate of offensive rebounds: 37.5% of all available boards. But, again, it's not Kevin at fault here: he pulls in an elite 26.6% of defensive rebounds. Pekovic (and Rubio) are the ones whose defensive rebound rates fall by almost half, and Dante Cunningham, who replaces Love when he's out sometimes, rebounds like a point guard when the game is close.

Historically bad shooting from their point guards and bad luck have given Minnesota a terrible record in close games. The prime example was a game against the Mavericks they lost by two points where the last play of the game was a Marion "block" on a Kevin Love jump shot. In fact, the NBA admitted they made a mistake in not calling a foul, which would have sent Love to the line for two free throws to tie the game. Also, many of these close losses come from games where the Wolves have a sizable deficit and claw their way within striking distance but come up short when time expires; it's not that they're choking away games they already game. For example, with three minutes to go against the Kings, they rally to come within just one point, thanks to plays like Love's back-to-back three's. (This partially explains the horrible defensive rating because they have to intentionally foul.)

Minnesota has lost an unusually large amount of close games, but the cause does not appear to be Kevin Love. Opposing teams are hitting their three's and crashing the offensive boards, but Love's the only one rebounding well. We can't expect the Wolves to keep losing all their close games at such an absurd rate; the magic of regression to the mean will lift their record. Even Rubio can't keep shooting that poorly.

Conclusion

If Kareem, undoubtedly a top three player of all-time, can miss the playoffs two seasons in a row in his mid-20's during a time when many of the best players were in another league, and still not lose his spot in the Pantheon, then why can't Kevin Love be a top four player during a single season? Kevin Garnett matched the same feat three straight seasons with the same Minnesota franchise. To simply throw away Love's candidacy for all-NBA for top five MVP consideration because his team missed the playoffs in the toughest western conference ever, arguably, is lunacy. If you think Love can't lift a team with a few decent players, then you're ignoring how Minnesota is 8th in the league in adjusted plus/minus -- he's doing a better job, using one basic but effective team metric, than LeBron James! When Kevin's on the court, his team's offense is devastating. To ask Kevin to do more, that it's his fault, is bewildering because of how much he's already doing. It's not his fault Rubio is a terrible shooter and is even worse when the game is on the line.

We haven't learned from Kevin Garnett's case, which was a fairly recent occurrence. I do not have confidence the media and fans will treat Love appropriately. We place too much credit on the star players for team records, especially in close games. To say that Love is choking is odd because his shooting percentages mirror that of Aldridge's and Joe Johnson's. Maybe one day we'll learn. But with Minnesota's playoff chances dwindling every game, we're going to see more press about how Love isn't a "winner." And it's not fair.

Kevin, it's not your fault.

Minnesota Timberwolves Deny Love Max Extension: Racism?

An all-star last year, the 23 year-old power forward, Kevin Love, has again improved. His offseason was apparently productive as he dropped a large amount of weight and increased his per game scoring average from 20.2 to 25.3 while leading the league in minutes a game. In fact, he has considerably improved every season he's been in the NBA, and he's a hard worker off the court, well spoken, and one of the best young stars. The likely western all-star starter, Blake Griffin, has regressed from his rookie year and his numbers pale in comparison to his young power forward counterpart. No other player in the NBA, actually, can be compared since he has the rare combination of three-point shooting prowess with over five attempts a game at a conversion of over 40% and elite rebounding collecting 13 per contest. The only similar player in the league's history is Troy Murphy, who never scored at the rate Love is. Having already had the first 30 point, 30 rebound game since Moses Malone, Love could become the first player to average 25 points and 13 rebounds since Moses himself in 1981-82.

So why didn't Kevin Love earn a max extension from his team? He's set to receive the maximum amount of money per year, but he didn't get the full five years. A new rule in the NBA says that each team gets a "designated player," for whom a five year extension can be granted after the rookie contract, but a team can have just one designated player at a time.Only the home team can offer this, helping out small-market clubs. If a young, hard-working power forward who's averaging 25-13 can't get the max deal, then who would?

Earlier, Russell Westbrook received a five year deal with his team Oklahoma City. There's no denying he has talent and could considerably improve his game, but it's hard to argue that Love isn't having the better season. Westbrook is a point guard without a reliable outside shot who relies on his athleticism, while Love is a phenomenal rebounder who's turned himself into a great outside shooter. Who will age better? There's no logical reason to assume the Thunder point guard will be the better player going forward when he hasn't shown it.

Westbrook takes more shots a game than Love, but he averages both less points per game and less on a per minute basis. He's always had problems with his shooting percentages, and even when he's bricking he'll hoist up shots. Love's scoring more because his shooting percentages are once again much better. These two western conference stars are inextricably linked as they both played together at UCLA, and their contracts hint at something the media feels uneasy discussing.

Kevin Love is a white American basketball player, and as such he's had to deal with people assuming he can't play. Said to be a bust out of college by many because the league was too athletic for him, he had a stellar rookie season with outstanding rebounding and great offensive potential. Fans regularly make jokes about white American ballplayers, and some like Scalabrine are a confused merging of disrespect for white players and glee whenever he makes a positive play like he's a dog who's learned fancy tricks, an oddity. There's no denying racial assumptions exist in basketball. Kevin did everything he could to better himself as a ball player, and maybe because of what he looks like management didn't see him as their designated player, the face of the franchise.

Minnesota is probably saving their max extension for Rubio, and as an international player he's faced with a different set of prejudices. With the success of foreign stars in winning championships from Dirk Nowitzki to Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, and the MVPs given to Dirk and Nash, white foreign players are allowed to be superstars. In fact, the different culture may help these players develop because they're not as obsessed as race as we are. In places like Lithuania and Serbia with few Africans no one assumes how good someone is based on skin color; you just pick up the ball and prove yourself. There's no self-selection with the young athletes with regards to race.

Maybe Minnesota really does believe they need to save the 5 year max for Rubio or another lottery star. Love, however, is doing everything a designated player should do, averaging 25-13 a game. It's unclear why they chose to do this, including a fourth year option where Love can decide if he wants to leave or not. But you have to consider how they perceive Kevin Love's value and if any of that is tied to his skin color.

2011 Western Conference All-star Starters

I'll continue from my earlier post with the starting guards for the 2011 all-star game for the west. A few quick notes: I don't care about how the ballots list the positions. While I use advanced statistics, I won't rely on them; I realize many have holes. Also, I want the team out there to have continuity with seasons past. Meaning, some stats and how guys are playing is fluky. Sometimes shots fall. The all-star tag will carry with a player forever. You have to make sure a guy deserves the award, and that it's not a fluke. As a last note, the stats are of January 29th, and thanks for the incredible basketball resources found from basketball-reference.com, hoopdata.com and 82games.com.

Starting Point Guard

The depth of elite point guards is historically great. Chris Paul is carrying his team with ridiculously efficient numbers, Deron Williams is having perhaps his best season yet, Russell Westbrook broke out and had MVP whispers at the start of the year, and Tony Parker is play great for one of the best teams. The punch line? Steve Nash will likely miss the game despite playing as well as he did in his MVP seasons.

Tony Parker is guy you can throw out first. Compare his season to Chris Paul's. Can you say he's accomplished more for his team? Paul is a much more efficient scorer at 60.8% TS to Parker's 57.1, he's a supremely better passer, and even a more effective defender who gets his steals not by gambling in the passing lanes so much but by swiping the ball away from the guy in front of him. Tony's also only playing 32.9 minutes a game.

Now it's only down to Paul, Williams, Westbrook and Nash. We'll start with scoring, as it's probably the easiest facet of the game to analyze. But each guy has a vastly different offensive game. Steve Nash is leading the pack in TS% at an otherworldly 64.3%, which is good for seventh in the league. But no player ahead of him shoots as much as Nash. Shaq and Nene are the next largest pieces of their respective offensives, and it's not even close. Steve's usage rate is 24.4, but with the other players on his team this year he should probably be pulling the trigger more. Chris Paul, like Nash, is a reluctant but deadly efficient shooter, but his TS% is human at 60.8% and his usage rate is 22.5. Deron Williams is close behind at 60.2% and a higher 26.7. These three traditional points contrast with Russell Westbrook, who has a higher usage rate at 30.5 but a TS% of 53.5%.

What the numbers are indicating is that Nash is an amazing shooter who should be a larger part of his team's offense, Chris Paul and Williams are very efficient but Deron has the advantage of taking more shots, and Westbrook is shooting poorly and way too often. Earlier in the season Westbrook was shooting at higher rates and people were wondering if he was the best point guard in the league, but I think that has passed. He's hurting his team by shooting too much. Looking at his stats from hoopdata.com, he's shooting well enough inside at 55.5% but from ten feet and out he's hovering around 37% ... just like every other season. The difference this year is that his free throw percentage is up from around 80% to 85%, which is around Deron Williams' percentage. Paul and Nash are a level above near 90%.

Moving on from shooting, in comparing their passing skills there are some disparities. While Nash is an amazing passer, his numbers are inflated compared to Paul's because the Suns still play a bit fast while the Hornets are as slow as honey. And both guys are basically passing to a team of outcasts and hasbeen's. But Paul stands out because is turnover rate is a microscopic 9.1. Nash is at 12.8. Westbrook and Williams are at 11.5 and 11.0, respectively. Despite carrying an overachieving team, Paul is turning the ball over like a catch-and-shoot specialist, and since a turnover is effectively costing your team an average of 1.1 to 1..2 points, this is a very important skill. With Deron and Russell, I don't think we need to run through the numbers. Deron is a great passer but not on the level of Nash or Paul, while Russell is an improved passer but nothing special. His main skill is in penetration.

Defense can be a contentious topic because it's not easily quantifiable or obvious. But with these four guys, it's clear to see where they stand. Williams, Paul and Westbrook are plus defenders; Nash, while much maligned, is an adequate defender but needs help against lightning bug points, and in years past Marion would often get the nod. Williams' size and toughness are a huge help, while Paul's size isn't too much of an issue because he has amazingly quick hands and often leads the league in steals, so posting him up can be a challenge. Westbrook, however, has the chance to be great. His size and athleticism are at the top 10% each at his position, but he's still young and will often make mistakes.

There are a few more miscellaneous aspects of the game in which to compare the players. For rebounding, Westbrook is a Kidd-like rebounder with a rate of 8.3, which is leading the league for point guards, while the 175 pound Chris Paul is next in the group of four at 6.8. Chris Paul is leading the league with 2.6 steals, Westbrook following at 1.9, while Williams is at 1.2 and Nash is far behind at 0.6 per game. Another comparison, which is arguably the most important, is how much these guys play. Williams, Westbrook and Paul are fairly evenly spaced with 37.7, 36.3 and 35.2 minutes per game respectively. Nash, however, falls behind with his creaky back at 32.9 minutes a game. Additionally, he's missed a few games, while only Deron has missed one this season. Westbrook has yet to miss a game in his pro career.

I think this is where Nash can be eliminated, despite his domination on the offensive end of the court. He hasn't been on the court enough. Westbrook has the opposite problem -- he's on the court enough, but he's not a great passer like Nash, and his shooting is hurting his team. Even if he eliminated the outside jumper, he'd still be a liability because guys don't need to check him when he's outside.

Now it's down to Williams and Paul, and this time it's actually close. In earlier seasons, the media liked to make a story out of nothing: who was better, Deron Williams or Chris Paul? But Paul had two of the best seasons ever by a point guard back to back. He was basically the entire offense, and he was extremely efficient -- over ten assists a game with few turnovers, and high percentages on his shots. But last year, Deron was better because Chris was injured, and the injury has carried over into this season. Paul is having a great season, but not a historic one. The main difference is that he's shooting less often. Deron has closed the gap, but I believe Paul still has the edge. Two advanced statistics agree -- his PER is 25.7 and his WS/48 is 0.282, while Deon’s is at 23.1 and 0.185. Even after adjusting for minutes, Chris Paul is leading.

But those statistics only take into account box score numbers. There are a number of intangibles to consider, and I don't think Williams has any sizable advantage. Finally, consider this: New Orleans has a better record and a much better average margin of victory, despite a tougher schedule. Besides Paul, their next best player is who exactly? David West, a power forward with decent but not great shooting percentages and matador defense? Williams has Millsap ... and Al Jefferson. Chris Paul wins the starting spot here, but his injury concerns leave the door open for future discussions of best point guard in the league.

Pick: Chris Paul (New Orleans Hornets). Next in line: Deron Williams.

Starting Shooting Guard

This is supposed to be an easy win for Kobe, but most people are overlooking a couple key things. One, he's shooting the ball at a rate of 32.7, which is leading the league; and despite a recent torrid stretch he only has a TS% of 55.8%, which normally isn't bad (it's a bit above average) but his team has a lot of options like Gasol, Bynum and Odom, who are all shooting the game at much lower rates despite their great shooting numbers. Here's the second knock against Kobe -- he's only playing 33.2 minutes a game. His knee is ravaged, and as such he's not as valuable as he once was.

But the candidates out west aren't appetizing. Ginobili is having a great year (well, it's statistically similar to every year he's had) but he's playing less minutes at 31.5 a game. Kevin Martin is one of the league's best efficient scorers, but he's strangely only playing 31.2. Brandon Roy was destroyed by knee injuries. Monta Ellis is a selfish gunner who only impacts the game with his scoring, but his shooting percentages are sub-par. Does another point guard deserve the spot? Or a small forward? I don't think the situation is that poor where Durant or Deron Williams would be forced to the two spot. The next best candidate may actually be Eric Gordon, who's playing 37.8 minutes a game. He's shooting the ball well and often, and even plays great defense. But he has missed a few games with injuries.

So it's basically Kobe versus Manu versus Commissioner Gordon. Eric Gordon sticks out, and there are a few reasons why. He's an efficient scorer, but Manu is better and Kobe shoots more. He doesn't rebound like those two, and his defense, while good, still isn't near the hobbled Bryant. Advanced statistics show this too -- despite his huge lead in minutes, his Estimated Wins Added from PER and Win Shares is still behind Bryant and Manu (though it's mostly because he's missed games.)

In comparing Bryant and Ginobili, it's interesting to see how close they are, as Kobe's minutes edged is nullified by Ginobili's shooting efficiency. They are both dynamic scorers who can rebound, pass and shoot from anywhere on the court, though Bryant tends to believe a good shot is one where he's fading away with two defenders in his face.

But let's put these two in a real basketball context. Bryant probably shoots too much, but his TS% is about even with his team's and he's rarely turning the ball over despite all his shots and assists. He's a larger part of the offense than Manu, and this stems from the kernel of truth of why Ginobili will remain a rung below the best in the NBA -- he's an offensive star, but you can't run the team through him. He gets injured. He plays a low number of minutes. Kobe, however, will guard like crazy, and can carry his team through bad stretches. I think Kobe barely wins this starting spot on the all-star team. If Manu can match him in minutes, he'd probably deserve it. It's also interesting to note that Manu hasn't missed a game. This is a fluke, and I guarantee that he'll miss a key stretch of games in the latter half of the season.

Pick: Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers). Next in line: Ginobili.

Starting Small Forward

This pick is easy until you include a couple of the power forwards who could conceivably play the 3-spot. Durant is a superior basketball player compared to Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo's only clear edge is rebounding, where he doesn't receive enough credit. He's rebounding like an average power forward despite being the focal point of the Nugget's offense and playing on a perimeter a lot. But both players derive their value from their scoring. They both shoot roughly the same number of shots where Anthony has a usage rate of 29.3 while Durant one of 28.4, but Durant has a TS% of 59.2% and Carmelo a terrible 52.3%. Basically, Durant is carrying his team offensively with a shooting efficiency that few can match, while Carmelo is taking shots away from other players who could probably do better than he has been. The strange part? Denver is leading the league with a 57.4% TS over Boston's 57.1%. (This is mostly because of Nene's amazing 69.4% TS, and great numbers from Billups, Afflalo and Lawson.) I wonder how well they'd do if Carmelo could hit the side of a blimp hanger.

Durant also matches or bests Carmelo in most other categories. Anthony's a lazy defender while Durant has made strides. Anthony is a great rebounder, but Durant is above average also. Both are sub-par passers. Anthony lets Billups lead the team; Durant has taken a leadership role. There is no way one could argue Carmelo should start over Durant. And a power forward like Nowitzki isn't justified here. Durant deserves to start.

Pick: Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder). Next in line: probably one the many great power forwards

Starting Center

I'm skipping ahead to center because the power forward spot is crowded while center is wide open. Basically, whoever can justify being labeled a starting center is eliminated from the power forward competition and thus makes the selection easier.

The conventional candidates here include Duncan, who's playing better than people think; Nene, as mentioned above is scoring so efficiently that the difference between him and the amazing Nash is the difference between Boston's TS% and New Jersey's; Tyson Chandler, who's certainly playing well but his limited offensive game and low minutes put him out of the running; and Bynum, whose defense is worthy of starting but has played few minutes. All four seven-footers are playing 30 minutes or less a game. The next best candidates are Nowitzki, who's at least tall enough to play center; Gasol, who's actually played most of his minutes at the pivot; Randolph, who weighs enough but doesn't protect the rim; and Aldridge, who shares the court a lot with Cunningham and can be considered a center sometimes.

From that last above, it's obvious who the best players are. Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki are a class above the rest. They're both international big men who bring as much skill to a seven-foot frame as anyone in the game (or even the history of the game.) They're both having great years, and I think I'll keep the decision process simple. Gasol actually plays the center spot. Four of the top five rotation combinations include Odom and Gasol as the biggest guys on the court for the Lakers, and Pau is clearly acting as the center. Nowitzki shares the court with Chandler or Haywood, and he also does less center duties -- rebounding, protecting the rim, etc.

Pick: Pau Gasol (Los Angeles Lakers). Next in line: *crickets*

Starting Power Forward

I guess I'll begin with a giant list of the candidates in alphabetical order. LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, Dirk Nowitzki, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph, Luis Scola, and David West. I'll toss out the obvious ones. Scola's been playing well, but his TS% is 53.6, he's playing 33.1 minutes a game and he plays no defense. The Ice-Cream Man is gone. David West is a fine power forward who's having arguably his best season yet. But a devil's advocate would point out that his only strength lies in scoring, and he's not even at an elite level there. He's gone. Millsap finally gets the Jazz 4-spot all to himself, but like Boozer before him he doesn't play much defense, his rebounding is merely average, and compared to the other power forwards his shooting isn't impressive. Goodbye. Zach Randolph is clearing the boards as well as he clears his plate, but again his defense is shoddy and his aim isn't so true (53.1% TS.) He's gone. Aldridge is underrated in that he can play huge minutes for a big guy without any ill effects and he rarely gets injured, but he doesn't rebound and his TS% is still low at 53.0. Better luck next year. Tim Duncan is more of a center, but he's had a huge impact on the court. He's eliminated, however, because his minutes are a career low. Goodbye Timmah!

Who we're left with is Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, and Dirk Nowitzki. If you include Pau Gasol (my starting center) then you have a group of four guys who are racially "white" in different respects. Love is American, Dirk is German, Pau is Spanish and Blake is half-white, half-black. I understand that point out race today is basically racism, but I thought it was interesting to note.

Moving on, these three guys present a quandary. Any time you try to eliminate one, the entire deck of reason falls apart. Picking out one guy is tough. Start with defense. No guy is known for defense, but Love probably gets the most hate in this respect. Nowitzki, however, is a quietly decent defender for a power forward. Blake the Flying Griffin is arguably as poor as Kevin Love in defense, and historically rookies have a hard time adjusting to the league. Love has had the advantage of a couple years learning how to defend NBA players. As for rebounding, Kevin's lead isn't as large as one would think. The T'Wolves are a surprisingly fast paced team, and Love's rebound rate is only 23.5. (Only is relative to the media attention surrounding him; that's still an outstanding rate.) Griffin is at 20.0, while Dirk is far behind at 11.7. And strangely enough, Nowitzki leads the three in blocked shots per game at 0.7. Blake has 0.6 per game and Love only 0.3. These guys aren't protecting the rim, basically.

Offense is where we can eliminate the Winged Griffin. His TS% is only 55.4, despite all the dunks but partly because he's a bad free throw shooter at 61.5%. He's a large part of the offense with a 26.0 usage rate compared to Kevin's 21.9, but when you factor in Love's passing the advantage is clear. Blake isn't out there for his defense, and his offense needs refinement.

Kevin Love, however, has become a great shooter. His free throw percentage is higher than Dirk's (87.8 to 87.2) although Dirk gets to the line more often. But Love's three-point numbers are even better. He's at 44.4% for the year with 3.1 attempts versus Dirk's 38.9% and 2.6 attempts a game. But those numbers are a bit fluky, and I'd expect some regression to the mean where the two are more evenly comparable. But Dirk doesn't live by the three. He sets up near the free-throw line, and drains in mid-range shots with high accuracy and gets to the rim where for his career he's probably the best seven-footer ever. Actually, he is the best seven-foot shooter ever. No candidates are close. This is where Dirk has a huge advantage. He's a much larger part of the Mav's offense, and he's extremely efficient. He has better percentages and a much lower turnover rate (10.0 to 8.7.)

But the caveat is that Dirk has missed a few games. You can't be valuable without being on the court. The Mavs have struggled without him, but some argue that you can't derive value out of a player missing time. However, it drives home a major point -- the Mavs are a great team because of Dirk, and the T'Wolves are terrible even though Kevin Love is out there every game playing large minutes. I think the "good stats on a bad team" argument for excluding players like him is shortsighted, but with the right information you can figure out which guy is a star on a terrible team and which guy is throwing up huge stats but keeping his team from success. In Love's case, his rebounding is overblown and his defense is poor. He's playing next a guy who can't rebound in Milicic, the home-town stat recorder is giving him dubious rebounds, he can be seen in highlights stealing the rebound away from his own teammates, and his rate isn't even that spectacular. (Camby is tied with him, and Reggie Evans was putting up a historic rebound rate of 26.3 to Love's 23.5 before he got injured.) Love's adjusted 2 year plus/minus is underwhelming too at +0.72. Dirk? +10.15. Since both standard error's are around 3.5, I'd say it's very likely adjusted plus/minus shows Dirk is the best player. (I used two-year plus/minus because one year has such a large error.)

What makes Dirk a great player is the notes he doesn't play -- he doesn't turn the ball over (ever), he doesn't miss free throws, he doesn't make bad defensive plays, he doesn't get in foul trouble, and he doesn't miss shots even when contested. He also doesn't miss games, and that's where the recent stretch of absences can be partially excused. It was an aberration. He hadn't missed more than 6 games in nearly a decade until this year. And this year it's only 9. He's amazingly consistent, and will likely end up north of 30,000 career points. Dirk is the pick because his value on the court is MVP-worthy.

Pick: Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks). Next in line: Kevin Love.

So it's:

Chris Paul

Kobe Bryant

Kevin Durant

Dirk Nowitzki

Pau Gasol

versus

Derrick Rose

Dwyane Wade

Lebron James

Amare Stoudemire

Dwight Howard

Not bad. The point of this is to pick the best starting line-ups for each conference. You want the team to be impressive and seemingly unbeatable. Unfortunately, in the real world Anthony is starting and Yao could be replaced by an idiotic pick like Mo Williams was a couple years ago. Let's hope someone deserving like Pau gets it instead of a quote unquote real center like Chandler or Kaman last year.