Eastern Conference Finals: Hibbert and Bynum's Freaky Friday

A couple months ago when Indiana was flounder and the basketball world was awaiting the playoffs, we all worried the eastern conference would be a pointless slog. However, Indiana righted the ship, and they defeated a good Washington team with relative ease. Hibbert, in particular, has made a great comeback. It was seemingly an overnight transformation from a staggering zombie to the old defensive whiz we had known from earlier in the season -- he even rediscovered his offensive game.

But what caused his slump? What's odd is that he's done this before. After the large contract extension last season, he struggled with his shooting touch. Before the all-star game he averaged only 10.0 points per game on a ghastly 41.4 FG%, and after his scoring increased to 15.7 points on a 50.8 FG%. All his other stats had remained stable, and there were reports a nagging wrist injury destroyed his offensive game for the first half of the season. So by the all-star break last season, he was being called a massive disappointment on his large contract, and jump ahead a year to this season's all-star break he was a centerpiece defensive player who looked like a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. But after the all-star break, not only did his scoring and shooting percentages drop, everything did.  What happened?

Hibbert's all-star game splits are pretty astounding, but there's another factor here: the Bynum trade. Although Bynum barely played, his time on the team had a suspicious negative effect. Indiana played worse for multiple reasons -- it's rarely just one cause, even though everyone likes to posit their own theory -- and one of them was Evan Turner's quiet disaster on the court, but you can't blame Turner for Hibbert. What's strange is that Hibbert improved immediately after Bynum was released from the team in the playoffs.

The results are striking. His scoring decreased, and it was from both angles: his shooting efficiency plummeted to pathetic levels and he shot less often. Unfortunately, even though he assisted less often, his turnovers slightly increased. His rebounding fell off too, and it was in both areas. He even blocked less shots.

Bynum	PTS/75 poss	TS%	Usage	TOV/75 poss	OREB%	DREB%	Blk/75 poss	Ast%	GmSc/75 poss
With	15.9	53.4	20.2	2.3	11.3	16.5	3.2	6.9	13.4
Without	11.9	45.2	18.2	2.5	7.7	12.0	2.6	4.8	7.0

Game score is a basic summation of box score stats invented by Hollinger as a single-game PER statistic. It was nearly chopped in half, which is, frankly, astounding. The graph below shows a 5-game rolling average; it shows how well he does in five game chunks (weighted by recency, so the most recent game is more important.) It's not perfect, but Hibbert's slide is apparent, and he hit a low point, obviously, versus Atlanta, and then had a meteoric rise to close the series and then help defeat Washington. It appears Hibbert progressively got worse as the season went on before hitting rock bottom in the playoffs, but it's a curious coincidence Hibbert improved considerably once Bynum was released.

.There are likelier causes to Hibbert's swoon. For instance, he put on extra muscle weight in the off-season, and it may have been too much for his 7' 2" frame to get through the season. When his game sank and his foot speed diminished, he also lost his confidence -- that's a possibility. Or, of course, when Bynum was signed he switched bodies with Roy Hibbert a la Freaky Friday, and Bynum's lack of effort led to Hibbert's awful second half of the season, while Hibbert was sidelined in Bynum's body. Just tell everyone the numbers support this theory.

Series notes:

-Miami is the magic elixir for Indiana's offense. Last season their offensive rating was 104.3, and against Miami in the playoffs they scored 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Since Miami is an above average defense, that's a fairly significant increase.

-LeBron's been playing historically good offensively in the playoffs, but he shouldn't be ignored because of the lowly eastern conference; they have been playing good defenses. (The Nets have had a good defense since January.)

-Hibbert, as highlighted above, was terrible during the second half of the season, but he did destroy Greg Oden in a late season game, and Oden has barely played since then. That's quite remarkable, and a sad twist in a strange tale of two centers.

-Last playoffs Wade couldn't crack a 50 TS%, and now he's hanging around 55 TS%. It's a bit astounding LeBron won a title with Wade being unable to shoot well for most of the playoffs; he gets little credit for that.

-Paul George, meanwhile, is averaging 22/9 with a 57 TS% and great defense. The fickle NBA audience has turned on him already, but he's lived up to the hype.

-At the beginning of the season I criticized Miami heavily for going after Beasley because I felt that even Beasley at his best is the wrong fit. He had a good start to the season, but then faded and lost a spot in the rotation due to poor defense. And when replaced by virtually everyone else on the team, the team is better. Sorry for being right, Miami.

-Homecourt advantage is tossed around a lot when discussing series outcomes, but I've seen very little detailing the important of homecourt advantage in the playoffs. People probably assume the same kind of strength as in the regular season but without any stats backing up that claim; however, I do think most people actually think homecourt advantage is greater in the playoffs. The complicating factors are that better teams play more often on homecourt and there's no back-to-back games in the playoffs -- since more away teams play on the end of a back-to-back, this reduces the strength of HCA. But looking at the past three playoffs (2011 to 2013), and adding a "virtual" game to any series with an odd number of games so that teams have the same number of home and away games, homecourt advantage is +3.84. That's much greater than the typical value assumed (3.2) -- and without back-to-back games, it drops to a mere 2.8. Given how strong the crowds are in the playoffs, this shouldn't be a surprise.

-Full season results are more predictive than post all-star break results for teams -- which does not bode well for Miami. If Indiana is back, they should not be lightly handled.

-Miami beat Brooklyn by an average of 5.4 points per game. Since Brooklyn was a +1.4 point differential team after January first (when their rotation settled after dealing with injuries) in a weak conference, this suggests Miami is a +6 strength team. Miami also beat Charlotte by 10 a game, and since Charlotte was a -1 SRS team that suggests a strength of +9. By reasonable estimates in the playoffs, Miami has been a (roughly) +7.5 team. The assertion that they were coasting in the regular season and would shift a gear in the playoffs is at the very least plausible. Having Wade for every game, of course, is a tremendous help. The only problem now is a recovered Indiana team that matches up well.

-Indiana took game 1, but the game was an offspring of the past few games we've seen from them. Hibbert and West bully their way inside, while Miami makes runs when Indiana goes to their bench. This should be another close series. 

2014 Defensive Awards

As the playoffs progress, let us not forget the regular season, where few people cared about the Wizards and Durant was king. For this awards installment, it's all about defense, which remains the trickiest area to judge. A few advanced stats are useful, mostly plus/minus varieties, but the "eye test" is also very important. As such, video is available for every major player discussed. Since stats.NBA.com has every play accessible and viewable, I hope it's used more to discuss players, especially to an audience unfamiliar with them.

First-team All Defense

G - Ricky Rubio

Rubio makes first team for having the size to smother point guards or cover shooting guards. He picks up a high number of steals, but he's not a dangerous gambler. In the first clip below, you can see him guarding Chris Paul through picks, quickly recovering to stop Crawford, and then poking the ball out of his hands causing a turnover. The second clip shows a rare Chris Paul bad pass, where Rubio intercepts a pass to Griffin very easily with his wingspan.



G - Andre Iguodala

He's the league's premier wing defender in his prime, casting a large shadow on defense. Since he's changed teams a lot lately, we can see the outline of his impact. In 2012, Philly was 3rd in defensive efficiency, and when Iguodala left they fell to 15th. Denver improved from 20th to 11th. When Denver lost him after a single season, they dropped back down to 21st. And Golden State improved from 14th to 3rd. While there are other factors here like Bogut's health and coaching, Iguodala fares well by other metrics. He leads the league in pure adjusted plus-mins (RAPM) and is rated 8th by ESPN's RPM (RPM has a bias for big men, however, by incorporating height.) In the below clip you can watch him keep up with an aggressive LeBron and force a tough shot (which LeBron makes somehow.)



F - Paul George

Paul George is the top wing defender on the best (regular season) defensive team in the league. I'm not quite sure he tall he is anymore -- the offseason growth reports may not have the best sources -- but he's big enough to pester almost anyone on the perimeter and quick enough to cover multiple positions. You can watch him force Joe Johnson into a tough shot below.



F - Taj Gibson

The Bulls have consistently played better defense with Taj on the court for years. He's strong, long-armed, and executes Thibodeau's system well. Pure RAPM has loved him for years. In the clip below, he ends up guarding the uber-athletic John Wall, who can't get past Taj and launches an off-balance jump shot that's blocked.



C - Joakim Noah

He's the defensive player of the year, so this isn't a shocking pick. However, his plus/minus numbers have been lukewarm for a while, and it's unclear why this is. Perhaps RAPM is overrating Boozer's defense and not giving enough credit to Noah. For instance, Chicago's defense has been better or neutral when the same four-man lineups have Noah instead of Taj Gibson, who regularly posts a high RAPM. Nonetheless, Noah's an intense defender and the central defender on the league's second best defense, playing huge minutes and doing crazy things like being the only guy who defends in an all-star game, as shown below.



Second team

G - Patrick Beverley

The playoffs showed Beverley's peskiness, pressing Lillard and hounding him for every second despite coming off an injury and falling ill. He's probably the most annoying defender in the league, the Dennis Rodman of point guards. His low minutes total hurts him, but there weren't too many worthy guard candidates. He's a good enough thief to steal one from Chris Paul, as seen below.



G - Jimmy Butler

Butler's a tall, tenacious defender who's a perfect fit for Thibodeau's defensive system. He rates fairly well by most defensive metrics, but he's probably far from his peak. However, as with Beverley, the competition wasn't intense, and he's certainly better than, say, Chris Paul, who's not always engaged on defense. Butler guards LeBron fullcourt in the clip below, staying with him until the end, where he blocks LeBron's shot.

F - Kawhi Leonard

Like Butler, Kawhi has a great environment in which to learn defense, and he got an accelerated course in defense guarding LeBron in the finals. He wasn't a destructive defender like a Tony Allen, so given that he was under 2000 minutes Kawhi might be a surprising pick, but he only played low minutes because his team wanted everyone fresh for the playoffs. In the clip, he stays with Durant on the perimeter, taking away a three, and recovers on a drive to nearly steal the ball and bother his shot.



F - Tim Duncan

Old man Duncan remains a top-notch defender even as he approaches his 40's. His secret is being able to contest and block shots without even leaving the ground, often getting on his toes rather than jumping. This allows him to be nearly immune to shot fakes, keep his positioning, and be ready for a rebound. In the clip below, he comes over to stop a Durant shot at the rim at the exact right time and blocks the ball so well they call it a jump ball. He does this by barely jumping.

C - Dwight Howard

No one likes Howard anymore, but he's recovered from his major injuries and is back to being an ideal center on defense, guarding the rim, rebounding at a high level, preventing easy post-up plays, and being quick enough to navigate switches and guard smaller players. For instance, the intimidating Pekovic was destroyed on a post-up in the first clip. Howard's as strong as anyone, and he has a monstrous wingspan. The second clip shows an example of how Howard doesn't spike every blocked shot into the stands anymore; he's now directing them to his teammates. According to NBAWOWY.com, when Howard blocks a shot, his team recovers the ball 64.8% of the time, which is significantly above average (the average is usually in the upper 50's.) For comparison, San Antonio team only rebounded 57.0% of Duncan's blocks, and last season it was still under Howard's mark: 63.9%.

Player..............	Minutes	Blk%	Stl%	DRB%	Team Drtg	Iso/post PPP	RPI RAPM	RPM
Ricky Rubio	2638	0.3	3.6	11.9	-0.4	0.65	1.61	2.45
Andre Iguodala	2040	0.7	2.3	12.6	-4.1	0.81	4.05	4.74
Paul George	2898	0.6	2.7	17.7	-6.3	0.78	2.29	2.70
Taj Gibson	2531	3.7	0.9	17.1	-5.0	0.83	2.60	3.59
Joahkim Noah	2820	3.3	1.9	24.5	-5.0	0.78	1.38	3.88
Patrick Beverley	1751	1.0	2.2	7.4	-0.1	0.58	0.33	1.30
Jimmy Butler	2591	1.1	2.6	10.5	-5.0	0.72	1.58	1.23
Kawhi Leonard	1923	1.9	3.0	18.9	-4.2	0.69	1.07	1.98
Tim Duncan	2158	4.6	1.0	28.3	-4.2	0.80	2.47	5.25
Dwight Howard	2356	4.0	1.2	27.9	-0.1	0.74	2.97	4.91

*Iso/post PPP is the points per play allowed via Synergy. For C's and PF's, post PPP is used.
**"Pure" (RPI) RAPM was taken from this site.
***Team Drtg is a team's points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of schedule.


Defensive Player of the Year

With injuries to key defenders and the collapse of Indiana in the second-half, an opening emerged. Critics of the modern game like to tout the virtues of past legends, but they fail to give credit to the obstacles players face today -- playing against the best players from several countries, detailed video scouting rendering any weakness you have visible and exploitable, and a quick, athletic league with defensive rules that hurt slow help defenders. If you're going to be an elite defensive player in the modern NBA, it's not by accident.

3rd place

Dwight Howard

Howard's underrated now, and a multiple-time DPOTY winner who's back to looking like himself is not a strange pick for third place. I can imagine some people arguing for DeAndre Jordan, but that's silly: he still made too many mistakes, and his gaudy block totals aren't important if he's constantly being faked out of his shoes.


2nd place

Andre Iguodala

If he had played more minutes, I would have argued him for 1st place. I detailed his exploits above. He holds down the fort on a defense that collapses without him. While today big men are usually more valuable on defense, a smart, athletic, and long wing defender can cause the same impact.


1st place

Joakim Noah

He won due to attrition. He played a huge amount of minutes for an outstanding defense and played center. That's the argument in a nutshell. He's versatile and does well at almost everything you'd want from a center on defense. This is also likely to be his best season ever. It's a fine choice for the award, though a bit underwhelming.

Finally, there are a number of honorable mentions:

Mike Conley should be a candidate for a long time, but wasn't as good this season. You can see how he uses his quickness to stay in front of Lillard in the clip below, and forces him into a two-point fallaway jumper.



Tony Allen is still a terror on defense, and when healthy he's the only wing defender who approaches Iguodala. This was evident in the first round of the playoffs when the Grizzlies nearly upset the Thunder. In the first clip, Allen denies entry to Durant and steals the ball. In the second, he fights through a screen and blocks his shot.



And for the last part of the Grizzlies appreciation chain, Marc Gasol, who won the DPOTY last season and was out of the running when he injured his knee. But he remains a great defender and was unfairly forgotten this season. He's not exactly athletic, but he has great timing and knows just when to slide over; an example is below.



For the final clip, here's the underrated Amir Johnson destroying a Miami Heat pick and roll and saving the ball for his team.

Hibbert is the most notable exclusion, but Indiana actually defended much better with Mahinmi on the court and Hibbert had problems guarding quick players out of the paint or, really, the perimeter in general. The Atlanta series exposed these issues. Ibaka's a very good defender, but his blocked shot totals don't make him into a candidate -- he may not even be the best frontcourt defender on the team. Sefolosha regressed, though he's still pretty capable. Splitter was very effective when he played, but it was far too infrequent. Nene had the same issue -- and with him on the court, Washington punched above their weight and knocked out Chicago. And lastly, Draymond Geen may sneak onto a list someday, as the lineups with both Iguodala and Green dismantled other teams on defense.

The Hibbert Space Problem in Atlanta

The popular term now is "basketball analytics" -- it's all about numbers and statistics and advanced metrics. A word that's used far too often, however, is scientific. Scientific basketball is the ideal. It's about testable theories that are verifiable and reproducible. If you think that age matters in the playoffs, then prove it with real numbers with open methodology that can be tested by everyone else.

A few days ago, I wondered why Indiana didn't play Hibbert whenever Brand was on the floor. If Hibbert being stuck on the perimeter is the problem, then stick him on the one guy without three-point range. I was surprised by how infrequent this simple action was, but luckily Indiana played two games versus Atlanta in the regular season where Antic was unavailable and non three-point shooters Ayon and Brand played center (these were the only two regular season games Indiana won, and it seemed like a harbinger of things to come.)

The Hawks are a test lab of sorts for five-out basketball where everyone can shoot and the results were pretty terrifying for the Pacers despite the lack of star power on the other side of the court. For another site, I started a series on the power of spacing -- that outside shooting has a significant effect on defense even excluding the added benefit of efficiency. This is more pronounced with big men. Why is that? You're drawing out interior defenders far away from the basket, which they're supposed to protect. Hibbert, for instance, derives most of his value from guarding the basket. Think of this: besides his rim protection, what does Hibbert do? He is not above average in any other area with the exception of FT% for a center (for his career he's near league average in offensive rebounding compared to centers.) If you take away his rim protection and put his 7' 2" frame on the perimeter where his defense can be shaky, he is much less valuable.

Testing this, I collected all the play-by-play data for the Hawks and Pacers this season, and calculated the offensive efficiency of both teams given three situations: when every big man is a floor-spacer like Pero Antic, Paul Millsap, and Mike Scott; when there's at least one big man without three-point range like Elton Brand or Gustavo Ayon; and overall.

The defense is worse with Hibbert, which isn't surprising to anyone who saw the series, but that's true of every situation. This is a little alarming when you consider Hibbert is mostly aligned with his other starters and not the bench players, who are far worse defenders -- Scola, Turner, et al. Mahinmi was a better defender for the Pacers against Atlanta, but when looking at how the Pacers fare with the two centers in similar lineups this was true for the entire season.

Table 1: Atlanta’s offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)

	With Hibbert	Without Hibbert	Difference
Overall	103.3	100.4	+2.9
3PT center	104.8	102.5	+2.3
No 3PT center	100.0	97.5	+2.5

*Note: it's not an error that the overall difference is greater than the other two categories because the with and without Hibbert columns have a different number of possessions for each category. 

Yet Indiana still plays better with Hibbert when a non-3PT shooting threat is on the court. Why is this? Indiana's offense unexpectedly takes off, and it's better with Hibbert. However, when there are three-point shooters in the game, their offense is much worse when Hibbert is on the court. I'm not sure why this is, since Brand is still a good defender, but so is Antic. This is also a case of noise with raw +/- data washing out any useful information. Or maybe, Hibbert struggling against Antic or Millsap translates to frustration on the other end of the court.

Table 2: Indiana’s offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)

	With Hibbert	Without Hibbert	Difference
Overall	97.0	103.6	-6.6
3PT center	88.7	99.4	-10.7
No 3PT center	113.9	109.0	+4.9

It's still curious the Pacers didn't maximize the time coinciding with a non-3PT shooting threat for Atlanta and Hibbert -- that happened just 38.5% of the time, and excluding the two games Antic missed it's only 23.5%. They did play a bit better with him on the court guarding Brand or Ayon. The numbers state Indiana's defense with Hibbert isn't affected by the outside shooting, but it's hard to reconcile that with what happened on the court. As basketball becomes more scientific, we don't dump these results and hide the confusion; we embrace the surprises and try to find answers. Perhaps we need to adjust for something else, like Scola-Turner playing with Hibbert against Brand more often. Perhaps Hibbert isn't as bad defending the line as we thought, and the problem is that he's just flat-out worse overall. The struggle to answer this question, the journey for knowledge, is the path for enlightenment.

Whatever's happening to Hibbert, it's all-encompassing. And it's destroying Indiana's season.

2014 Playoff Preview: Round 2

It was a good time to pick home-team dominance in the first round where a chaotic few days saw road teams steal everything, but by the end the real champion, regression to the mean, triumphed, and almost every favorite advanced.

East

Miami Heat (2) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)
-The Brooklyn Nets are the story of the new NBA, where they become more powerful after losing the "best" offensive center in basketball -- they went with smallball and skill.
-This is a Don Nelson superteam without the fatal flaw: his elimination of the center position. Nelson wanted a team where every player is the same height, including the center, but you can't replace what you'd lose there: rebounding and rim protection will always be important.
-Switch-heavy Brooklyn should fare well versus the Heat offense. Their power forwards won't be thrown by defending the perimeter, and their point guards are big enough to switch and not get killed.
-Last series, prognosticators were divided on the Nets -- do you believe their full-season results or their post Jan. 1 results? Obviously, they were a stronger team than their point differential suggested. People who cited their negative point differential needed to realize that was because of a horrid first couple months with a basically different team.
-I was afraid the Heat weren't coasting but had lost a gear too. However, they beat a -0.9 SRS point (basically average) by 10 points a game.
-Wade didn't play in every game in the close season series, but neither did Garnett.
-It's difficult doing lineup analysis for the Heat because their best lineups barely played. In other words, it's hard saying what full-strength Miami will do against them. I can say for sure Brooklyn will put up a fight, but how tough of one?

Prediction: the Heat in five games.

Indiana Pacers (1) vs. Washington Wizards (5)
-The series already started, but I soured on Indiana. I do believe that sometimes it's better to use half-season results to predict future games when there's a major change. They traded for Evan Turner, a bad defender and an inefficient gunner on an awful team, and team cancer Andrew Bynum.
-I worked for a long time on a piece on Hibbert and Atlanta. (Error-finding is critical.)
-Why don't people bring up the fact that Hibbert was terrible in the first half of the '13 season and great after that? It's a weird pattern.
-The healthy Wizards are like the healthy Warriors. They're stronger than you think.
-Full season results state that the defense is better with Mahinmi in the middle over Hibbert. And at least with Mahinmi you don't have to force feed him post-ups.

Prediction: the Wizards in six games.

West

Oklahoma City Thunder (2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (3)
-I realize I'm setting these predictions after the series started, but other things in life happened over the weekend. That said, I'm going all in with my metric from before the playoffs -- I think these Clippers are the best in the west by a hair.
-It'll be an amazing series. I'll post a longer piece on them after two or three games have gone by to reflect on their stars and their teams.

Prediction: the Clippers in six games.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (5)
-There's a lot of criticism for the Rockets right now, but I don't understand why. It's a four-seed losing to a five-seed; both teams had the same number of wins in the regular season. Before Lillard's crazy shot, Houston make a huge basket and would have gone home with the series tied.
-It'll be interesting to see where they put Tony Parker -- guarding Lillard? Matthews? Matthews is aggressive enough to take advantage of that.
-Zach Lowe said that people who say Aldridge is hoisting midrange shots to "beat analytics" should be shut up because Portland is one of the heaviest analytics teams in the league, and Aldridge rates very well by advanced +/-. Zach's boss Bill Simmons, however, has already said that Aldridge is draining midrange shots to beat analytics. He should be better informed.
-Critics said the Blazers would falter in the playoffs because their style wouldn't translate. Aldridge's post game and jumpers are useful because he can get them off at whatever time even versus elite defenders, and you don't want to double him because of their shooters. Then there's Lillard as Curry-lite, making three-pointers off the dribble. These two can score against the best of them.
-If Portland had been in the west, they would have arguably been the best team in their conference (in the regular season, as Miami was resting and coasting.)
-This series hearkens back to the opening game in Portland, where San Antonio lost.
-As a team that combines three-point shooting with offensive rebounding with Aldridge and a high-scoring clutch guard, they're reminiscent of the 2009 Blazers.
-But the Spurs are too strong. The benches are like a well-coached college team versus a high school one. It's not fair.

Prediction: San Antonio in seven games.

2014 Playoff Preview: Round 1, Part 2

Here's the second set of predictions for the first round of the playoffs. My regular season predictions were great despite my simplistic method, beating out professionals from ESPN and other sites, so let's see if it carries over into the playoffs.

East

Miami Heat (2) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (7)
-Since no one expected Charlotte to be good, they're overrated now. It's a team with a negative point differential in a poor conference. Their adjusted offensive efficiency was ranked 25th in the league behind the Indiana Pacers and barely ahead of the lowly Bucks (and there were no good scorers on the Bucks.)
-Likewise, Al Jefferson is overrated. As stated above, they had a terrible offense -- what "lift" was he giving? Relative to the league averages in both respective seasons, Charlotte improved by 1 point on offense. Jefferson's also more useful for bad offensive teams since he can take a lot of shots but he's not a passer or an efficient scorer, so a mere 1 point increase is disappointing.
-The lack of outside shooting from Charlotte will be a bit of a disaster if Miami's defense is running well.
-Miami spent the season babying Wade and Oden, while LeBron was nicknamed LeCoast for his effort on defense, so the time is now -- will we see title-worthy Miami?
-Oden's defense, in particular, should be noted against Al Jefferson (if he plays.) Miami's weakness is post defense, and if Oden can muster any sort of resistance they'll have another weapon. As it stands, they have to rely on the veteran Haslem for this.
-Charlotte went from the league's worst defense in 2013 to the league's 7th best (adjusted for the schedule.) That's remarkable.
-According to my variable team rating system, Charlotte did worse as the opponent got better, so I think there's a decent chance they could be embarrassed, at least for a couple games. That said, the safest best is five games, especially since Miami has looked mortal this season.

Prediction: the Heat in five games.

Chicago Bulls (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)
-This is one of those 4-5 matchups where two non-contenders could take the series either way, and it's difficult assessing who's actually better.
-The Wizards are more of a defensive team than offensive, and I'm not sure what affect Chicago will have on them -- Wall's athletic and the good parts of their offense mainly have to do with shooting from Beal and Ariza outside the arc and the large but nimble Nene and Gortat inside. The best Chicago could do is goad them into more long two-pointers, which Washington loves all to much -- it's possible Chicago contains them. It's why Beal remains an inefficient scorer despite the accurate three-point shooting.
-The Bulls on offense are being held together with duct tape and string.
-Washington won the season series 2-1, but both teams had one blowout win and the other game was close. However, they were missing their secret weapon: Nene. They are much better with him in the lineup.
-Since the Deng trade, the Bulls have had the 7th best point differential in the league. Washington actually isn't far behind though. This should be an even series.
-The smaller improvements are often ignored. Andre Miller was an important signing because they had no one to run the non-Wall lineups, and the offense was dreadful without him. After bringing on Miller, the Wizards have had a +3.8 point differential.
-Since Chicago beat the Nets last season, I think people expect the Bulls to run through the first round again. But I don't think it'll be easy. Homecourt advantage and the superior coach give Chicago the narrow advantage here.

Prediction: the Bulls in seven games.

West

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Dallas Mavericks (8)
-I was critical of the Mavericks going after Ellis, and while he's had a good season fundamentally there's a defensive issue the team can't hide: Calderon and Ellis can be exploited defensively. They cannot guard Tony Parker, and any alternate to guarding Parker will be limiting Dallas' offense.
-The Mavericks player pair +/- page is really interesting. Dirk is involved in every single pair in the top seven, and nowhere else out of the 20 listed player pairs.
-Diaw will be used a lot on Dirk, and I think most people will continue to comment on why Popovich uses him on great players. I don't think people will ever accept that Diaw is a good defensive player.
-The Elias Sports Bureau stated that the Spurs are the only team in league history with no player over 30 minutes per game. Since they led the league in wins, I found this to be incredible.
-Fifteen years ago, Duncan won his first title with Robinson -- that's a huge span of time people are understating. Fifteen years before that, Bird won his second title against the Kareem and Magic Lakers. And fifteen years before that, Russell won his last title with the Celtics. (And fifteen before that, we were in the no-shot clock era.)
-As good as Dirk is, his team's defense will be shredded by the Spurs. By the way, people continue to insist that Dirk is a liability on defense, and even that he's been one his whole career, but I have no idea how they're coming to those conclusions. There are absolutely no numbers to assert that, as even his defensive rebounding numbers are either above average or average. It's the reputation you get for being a jump-shooting European. However, his team's defense is not his fault -- that's what you get for relying on guys like Calderon and Blair and depending on Dalembert's defense.
-If you go strictly by numbers and adjust heavily for teams that didn't use their best players much in the regular season, San Antonio feels nigh unbeatable. But that feels wrong -- they got away with resting their starters constantly because their bench is fantastic and, as I've shown, they do play a bit worse against better competition. It will be really interesting to see how they do this year versus elite teams like the Thunder or Clippers.

Prediction: the Spurs in five games.

Houston Rockets (4) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (5)
-If you want to see how Howard would do in the 90's, this is the series for you. Portland defends him straight up with a seven-footer, and so he averages 25.5 and 13.5 with a 66 TS%. Not that I'm stating he'd average a shooting efficiency like that in the 90's, but if you don't aggressively help on Howard without an elite post defender he can destroy your team.
-Portland's defense is not that bad anymore. They're 17th in the league in defensive efficiency, above the Nets and Mavs. But their schedule was difficult -- adjusted for strength of schedule, their defense is ranked 15th, a hair behind the Heat.
-Harden's lack of defense will be in full display here. He definitely shouldn't guard Lillard, and the other two perimeter players are just skilled enough offensively to take advantage of him. Zach Lowe argued Wes will try to post him up, but that's one of Harden's few virtues on defense; he's a very good post defender. Instead, watch for Wes on back cuts and open shots behind the arc while Harden's head is turned.
-Portland's starting frontline is a little too big for Houston -- Aldridge can shoot over Jones, but if they switch Howard onto him Robin Lopez will have a field day on the offensive glass.
-We're going to have games with like 400 three-pointers. It will be great.
-Playoff-mode Lillard could be an interesting beast.
-Houston appeared to get the better of Portland in the regular season, although the series was 1-3 including an overtime win. Portland's conservative defense doesn't work too well against Houston, but they won't get outclassed here. They legitimately have a chance.
-Some may argue Portland's seeding is partly due to their great health, but the bench is still weak and a shorter leash on the reserves -- their top bench guys are Mo Williams and Joel Freeland, which is a joke for a playoff team -- means Portland will be significantly better in the playoffs.
-Most of the signs point to Houston having a slightly better team, and coupled with homecourt advantage it's hard to argue for Portland, unless it's out of loyalty. I believe in Portland as a fan, but as an objective observer I have to say Houston.

Prediction: Houston in seven games.