Friday, April 19, 2013

Wilt versus Russell: Head to Head Box Score Data

In an unappreciated career in the NBA, Harvey Pollack is the only person who has remained continuously with the league since it started in 1946-47 where he's worked in statistics with the Philadelphia 76ers. His unique career has allowed him to amass an amazing amount of data, including stats from the developing years of the NBA. Currently, public data from the 60's when Wilt battled Russell is limited and incomplete. Luckily, Pollack put together a spreadsheet of his own data on head to head match-ups between Wilt and Russell with points, fouls, assists, total rebounds, free throw attempts and makes, field goal attempts and makes, and a limited selection of steals and blocks. The most popular website for box score data, basketball-reference, includes only free throws, field goals made and points -- yes, only field goals made, meaning you can't calculate how efficient the games were. (Why would someone only tally free throws made, attempted and field goals made? If you have attempts instead, you could figure out the made field goals using basic math.) However, with Pollack's data we can compare how Wilt did versus Russell and the rest of the league in every season they met, including the playoffs.

Quick disclaimer: I'm not saying this box score information is the end-all, be-all for the Wilt/Russell arguments. I'm also not including Russell's stats partly because I don't think it's worth the time, but mostly because Russell's impact is not measured well by the box score. If you want to know why the Celtics kept winning, it's not because of Bill's points; it was because of their defense. But Wilt-Russell head-to-head data is often requested.

Data information:
-143 observations
-Assists only have 129 observations (some missing in '66 PS, '66 RS, and '63 RS.)
-FGA's only have 127 observations (some missing in '68 RS, '67 RS, '66 PS, '66 RS and '63 RS.)
-Minutes played only have 101 observations (some missing in '69 PS, '69 RS, '68 RS, '67 PS, '67 RS, '66 RS, '65 PS, '65 RS, '64 RS and '60 RS.)
-Blocks only have 24 observations and steals 2.
-Consequently, when looking at the stats for Wilt versus everyone else, for the stats with incomplete observations some of these games include Russell games. This means the TS% is only for games where FGA was recorded.
-Data from the 60's is notoriously unreliable, especially in all the cases where the stats are somewhat subjective: assists and blocks. Be wary.

With those disclaimers aside, here are the results, where I suggest people look at the regular season and playoffs combined first because it's a bigger sample set before moving onto season by season playoffs analysis:




  Wilt’s head to head stats on the Warriors versus Russell: playoffs and regular season combined
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
Russell
47.3
28.5
50.9
12.5
52.2
52.3
28.4
2.3
34.4
Others
47.1
33.7
52.6
13.9
55.3
52.8
24.7
2.6
44.2

Wilt’s head to head stats on the 76ers versus Russell: playoffs and regular season combined
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
Russell
47.6
15.9
65.1
11.3
45.6
51.8
27.9
5.8
21.9
Others
46.1
18.3
63.0
11.3
45.0
57.1
22.9
6.5
26.7

Season by season tables are below.

Wilt's performance should first be understood with his progression as a player. With the Warriors, he was an extremely high scorer with very good efficiency, and when he was traded to the 76ers midseason in 1965 he dropped his volume scoring for extremely high efficiency scoring and great passing. Russell versus the first iteration of Wilt limited the 50 points per game scorer by up to 14 points while the efficiency trended downward but not by much, and versus the second iteration the insane efficiency was controlled while the points again trended downward. The only stat in Wilt's favor is rebounding, which was significantly higher; however, part of this is due to the Celtic's suffocating and league-breaking defense. Given how much better the defense was, more rebounds were available to grab. Since there's no accurate pace information about each game, it's difficult to accurately assess rebounding, but it's clear Wilt at least held his own -- and on another note Wilt averaged 5 more rebounds than Russell in only 2.2 more minutes per game.

Again, this isn't the final argument of Wilt and Russell, and it shouldn't be. But it's important to note how Wilt actually played against his foe, and he did this with less help than other big men of the era. Wilt lost again and again to the Celtics where there emerged a clear pattern: the defense was earth-shattering and the only constant was Russell.

Single game notes:
-Wilt has a 44/43 game against Russell in 1959.
-Triple-double of 39, 25 and 14 (blocks) in 1960 (the '60 season).
-A record 55 rebounds in the 1961 season; Russell had only 19 but he won.
-Triple-double of 44, 35 and 15 in blocks 1961.
-Points high of 62 against Russell in 1962.
-33, 31 and 11 blocks in the playoffs in 1965. Then later in the series 30, 26 and 13 blocks.
-Quadruple-double of 24, 32, 13 and 12 blocks in the 67 playoffs.
-Three triple-doubles (with assists) out of four games against Russell to end the 68 season.
-Low of 4 points in the second game of the 69 series. The data includes information on injuries or other factors, but lists nothing for this game. He was 1/6 from the floor.

Wilt’s head to head stats versus Russell: playoffs and regular season combined
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
46.1
30.6
47.5
13.8
50.9
49.2
28.9
1.5
36.1
60-61
48.0
29.8
49.2
12.4
49.7
50.3
30.6
1.8
35.5
61-62
48.3
31.4
46.8
13.1
59.5
50.0
28.0
2.4
37.2
62-63
47.4
28.2
49.7
14.7
62.9
54.2
28.9
5.0
38.1
63-64
46.6
22.5
54.3
11.1
42.4
53.2
27.2
3.2
29.2
64-65
45.9
22.4
50.2
9.7
48.0
50.9
28.4
3.8
27.2
65-66
48.7
20.8
53.0
12.9
49.2
51.7
30.5
3.4
28.2
66-67
48.4
14.2
56.3
11.5
47.8
55.7
28.6
7.8
20.8
67-68
47.8
15.6
48.1
11.6
37.9
48.0
25.7
7.7
19.5
68-69
47.1
9.9
49.6
9.5
40.3
48.5
24.5
3.8
13.7

Wilt’s head to head stats versus everyone else: playoffs and regular season combined
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
46.4
31.9
46.2
13.5
58.5
49.4
26.3
2.5
37.4
60-61
47.7
31.4
51.0
13.5
50.7
52.1
26.4
1.9
38.9
61-62
48.5
39.6
50.8
17.2
61.8
53.9
25.3
2.5
50.9
62-63
47.6
35.1
53.0
13.8
58.8
55.1
23.7
3.4
45.7
63-64
46.1
29.5
52.4
12.8
53.9
53.8
22.0
5.1
37.8
64-65
45.6
29.0
51.4
12.7
47.6
51.9
22.1
3.5
35.8
65-66
47.2
25.4
53.9
12.3
51.0
54.7
23.8
5.3
34.2
66-67
45.6
14.4
67.7
10.7
42.4
63.0
24.3
8.0
24.3
67-68
46.9
17.1
60.0
11.5
38.0
56.0
23.6
8.4
25.1
68-69
45.3
13.3
58.7
10.2
44.3
56.6
21.4
4.2
20.2

Wilt’s head to head stats differences: playoffs and regular season combined
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
-0.3
-1.3
1.3
0.2
-7.6
-0.2
2.7
-1.0
-1.3
60-61
0.3
-1.5
-1.8
-1.1
-1.0
-1.7
4.2
0.0
-3.3
61-62
-0.2
-8.2
-4.0
-4.2
-2.4
-3.9
2.7
-0.1
-13.7
62-63
-0.2
-7.0
-3.3
0.8
4.1
-0.9
5.1
1.6
-7.6
63-64
0.4
-6.9
1.8
-1.7
-11.5
-0.7
5.2
-1.9
-8.6
64-65
0.3
-6.5
-1.2
-3.0
0.4
-0.9
6.3
0.4
-8.6
65-66
1.5
-4.7
-0.9
0.6
-1.8
-3.1
6.7
-1.8
-6.0
66-67
2.8
-0.2
-11.4
0.8
5.4
-7.3
4.3
-0.2
-3.5
67-68
0.9
-1.5
-11.9
0.2
-0.1
-8.0
2.1
-0.7
-5.6
68-69
1.8
-3.4
-9.1
-0.7
-3.9
-8.1
3.2
-0.4
-6.5

Wilt’s head to head stats versus Russell: regular season
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
46.7
33.8
46.5
14.8
51.5
48.5
29.7
1.3
39.1
60-61
48.0
29.8
49.2
12.4
49.7
50.3
30.6
1.8
35.5
61-62
48.5
34.6
46.8
13.0
56.2
49.2
28.8
2.1
39.7
62-63
47.4
28.2
49.7
14.7
62.9
54.2
28.9
5.0
38.1
63-64
47.5
22.9
53.0
11.4
42.9
52.2
26.9
3.7
29.1
64-65
42.4
23.5
47.3
8.18
38.9
46.9
26.5
4.2
25.4
65-66
48.0
19.2
52.1
12.6
54.0
52.2
30.7
3.4
28.3
66-67
49.0
14.0
57.1
11.8
46.2
55.2
26.7
6.6
20.3
67-68
47.8
13.6
47.1
10.4
32.5
46.7
26.1
8.5
17.1
68-69
47.7
11.8
49.3
9.67
44.8
49.7
24.0
4.8
16.0

Wilt’s head to head stats versus everyone else: regular season
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
46.3
31.8
46.0
13.6
59.5
49.4
26.5
2.5
37.3
60-61
47.7
31.3
51.2
13.5
50.5
52.2
26.5
1.9
39.0
61-62
48.5
40.2
51.0
17.6
61.8
54.1
25.2
2.4
51.9
62-63
47.6
35.1
53.0
13.8
58.8
55.1
23.7
3.7
45.7
63-64
46.0
29.4
52.3
12.8
54.2
53.8
21.8
5.2
37.7
64-65
45.4
29.4
51.6
12.7
47.2
51.9
22.3
3.3
36.4
65-66
47.3
25.6
54.1
12.3
51.0
54.9
23.8
5.7
34.2
66-67
45.3
14.2
69.0
10.7
43.8
64.3
23.8
7.9
24.6
67-68
46.7
17.0
60.1
11.5
38.5
56.2
23.6
8.6
25.1
68-69
45.2
13.7
58.9
10.7
44.6
56.8
20.9
4.5
20.9

Wilt’s head to head stats versus Russell: regular season differences
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
0.3
2.0
0.5
1.2
-8.0
-1.0
3.3
-1.3
1.8
60-61
0.3
-1.5
-2.0
-1.1
-0.8
-1.9
4.1
0.0
-3.4
61-62
0.0
-5.6
-4.2
-4.6
-5.6
-4.9
3.6
-0.3
-12.2
62-63
-0.2
-7.0
-3.3
0.8
4.1
-0.9
5.1
1.3
-7.6
63-64
1.5
-6.5
0.7
-1.5
-11.3
-1.6
5.0
-1.5
-8.6
64-65
-3.0
-6.0
-4.3
-4.6
-8.3
-5.0
4.3
0.9
-11.0
65-66
0.7
-6.4
-2.0
0.2
3.0
-2.7
6.9
-2.3
-5.9
66-67
3.7
-0.2
-11.8
1.1
2.4
-9.1
2.8
-1.4
-4.3
67-68
1.1
-3.4
-13.1
-1.1
-6.0
-9.5
2.6
-0.1
-7.9
68-69
2.5
-1.9
-9.7
-1.0
0.3
-7.1
3.1
0.3
-4.9

Wilt’s head to head stats versus Russell: playoffs
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
45.5
24.7
50.0
5.8
49.3
51.0
27.5
2.0
30.5
60-61
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
61-62
48.0
26.9
46.8
8.4
64.1
51.4
26.9
2.9
33.6
62-63
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
63-64
45.8
22.0
56.4
4.4
41.5
54.8
27.6
2.4
29.2
64-65
48.8
20.9
55.5
7.0
57.6
57.5
31.4
3.3
30.1
65-66
49.0
23.3
54.3
5.6
41.2
51.0
30.2
3.5
28.0
66-67
47.8
14.4
55.6
5.6
50.9
56.1
32.0
10.0
21.6
67-68
47.9
17.0
48.7
5.6
42.9
48.7
25.1
6.7
22.1
68-69
46.8
8.3
50.0
3.4
36.4
47.1
25.0
3.0
11.7

Wilt’s head to head stats versus everyone else: playoffs
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
47.3
34.7
49.0
13.0
35.9
47.9
22.3
2.3
38.7
60-61
48.0
32.0
46.9
12.7
55.3
49.2
23.0
2.0
37.0
61-62
48.0
31.8
46.5
11.8
62.7
50.0
26.2
3.4
37.0
62-63
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
63-64
47.0
30.3
53.3
12.3
51.2
54.0
23.4
3.9
38.6
64-65
48.6
21.5
48.8
12.8
52.9
51.2
19.8
6.3
27.8
65-66
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
66-67
47.9
15.6
59.0
10.5
32.4
53.9
27.7
8.5
21.8
67-68
49.3
18.8
58.4
11.2
31.3
53.7
24.2
6.3
25.5
68-69
46.1
10.7
56.8
7.45
41.5
54.5
24.5
2.3
15.3

Wilt’s head to head stats versus Russell: playoffs differences
Year
MP
FGA
FG%
FTA
FT%
TS%
TRB
AST
PTS
59-60
-1.8
-10.0
1.0
-1.2
13.4
3.2
5.2
-0.3
-8.2
60-61
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
61-62
0.0
-4.9
0.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
0.7
-0.5
-3.4
62-63
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
63-64
-1.2
-8.3
3.1
-1.7
-9.7
0.7
4.2
-1.5
-9.4
64-65
0.2
-0.6
6.6
-0.6
4.7
6.3
11.7
-3.0
2.4
65-66
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
66-67
-0.2
-1.2
-3.4
0.5
18.5
2.2
4.3
1.5
-0.2
67-68
-1.5
-1.8
-9.7
1.8
11.5
-5.0
1.0
0.4
-3.4
68-69
0.7
-2.4
-6.8
2.0
-5.1
-7.4
0.5
0.7
-3.6
1) N/A: Only faced Russell in 66 and didn't face him in 61
2) None: did not make the playoffs.  

2 comments:

  1. Please link your source for the data. I believe I have seen the spreadsheet in question, and while it cites Pollack it evidently is the product of extensive research by one or more other individuals. If this is indeed the case, discussing the results of the research without citation is disingenuous.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I honestly can't find the link anymore. I try to give proper credit whenever it is due, so I talked extensively about Pollack because I thought it was his data. I have no information on any other authors of this document. If you know, then let me know.

      I haven't seen any other presentation of the Wilt v. Russell numbers through the box score. I think it's valuable to provide, but no one else was doing it. This isn't proprietary information either, like all the data teams keep to themselves. It's historical data that should be shared. Like Indiana Jones said, It belongs in a museum!

      Delete