A few days ago, I wondered why Indiana didn't play Hibbert whenever Brand was on the floor. If Hibbert being stuck on the perimeter is the problem, then stick him on the one guy without three-point range. I was surprised by how infrequent this simple action was, but luckily Indiana played two games versus Atlanta in the regular season where Antic was unavailable and non three-point shooters Ayon and Brand played center (these were the only two regular season games Indiana won, and it seemed like a harbinger of things to come.)
The Hawks are a test lab of sorts for five-out basketball where everyone can shoot and the results were pretty terrifying for the Pacers despite the lack of star power on the other side of the court. For another site, I started a series on the power of spacing -- that outside shooting has a significant effect on defense even excluding the added benefit of efficiency. This is more pronounced with big men. Why is that? You're drawing out interior defenders far away from the basket, which they're supposed to protect. Hibbert, for instance, derives most of his value from guarding the basket. Think of this: besides his rim protection, what does Hibbert do? He is not above average in any other area with the exception of FT% for a center (for his career he's near league average in offensive rebounding compared to centers.) If you take away his rim protection and put his 7' 2" frame on the perimeter where his defense can be shaky, he is much less valuable.
Testing this, I collected all the play-by-play data for the Hawks and Pacers this season, and calculated the offensive efficiency of both teams given three situations: when every big man is a floor-spacer like Pero Antic, Paul Millsap, and Mike Scott; when there's at least one big man without three-point range like Elton Brand or Gustavo Ayon; and overall.
The defense is worse with Hibbert, which isn't surprising to anyone who saw the series, but that's true of every situation. This is a little alarming when you consider Hibbert is mostly aligned with his other starters and not the bench players, who are far worse defenders -- Scola, Turner, et al. Mahinmi was a better defender for the Pacers against Atlanta, but when looking at how the Pacers fare with the two centers in similar lineups this was true for the entire season.
Table 1:
Atlanta’s offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)
|
With Hibbert
|
Without Hibbert
|
Difference
|
Overall
|
103.3
|
100.4
|
+2.9
|
3PT center
|
104.8
|
102.5
|
+2.3
|
No 3PT center
|
100.0
|
97.5
|
+2.5
|
Table 2:
Indiana’s offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions)
|
With Hibbert
|
Without Hibbert
|
Difference
|
Overall
|
97.0
|
103.6
|
-6.6
|
3PT center
|
88.7
|
99.4
|
-10.7
|
No 3PT center
|
113.9
|
109.0
|
+4.9
|
It's still curious the Pacers didn't maximize the time coinciding with a non-3PT shooting threat for Atlanta and Hibbert -- that happened just 38.5% of the time, and excluding the two games Antic missed it's only 23.5%. They did play a bit better with him on the court guarding Brand or Ayon. The numbers state Indiana's defense with Hibbert isn't affected by the outside shooting, but it's hard to reconcile that with what happened on the court. As basketball becomes more scientific, we don't dump these results and hide the confusion; we embrace the surprises and try to find answers. Perhaps we need to adjust for something else, like Scola-Turner playing with Hibbert against Brand more often. Perhaps Hibbert isn't as bad defending the line as we thought, and the problem is that he's just flat-out worse overall. The struggle to answer this question, the journey for knowledge, is the path for enlightenment.
Whatever's happening to Hibbert, it's all-encompassing. And it's destroying Indiana's season.
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ReplyDeleteGreat stuff, enjoyed reading as always.
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