Western Conference Finals: Spurs and Thunder

The discussion on these finals is mostly how the Thunder will fare without Ibaka and how the athletic Thunder are the antidote to San Antonio's precision passing and movement. It's hard to say what exactly the Thunder will do without Ibaka on the team since he only missed 3 games in the past 3 seasons. But we could also have the same finals we've seen the past couple years, barring Indiana making it past Miami. However, Chicago and Utah met two times in a row, and no one downplays the brilliance of the '98 finals. This should be an enjoyable series, and the loss of Ibaka makes this a fresh matchup with some unpredictability.

-This is an opportunity for Oklahoma City to play small with Durant as the nominal PF and try to blow San Antonio out of the water. The Thunder can go small without too much concern because the second big man for the Spurs is usually either Splitter or Diaw -- you can live with them shooting more often.

-I'm not one for calling out a coach, but I'm afraid Scott Brooks will respond to the loss of Ibaka by playing Perry Jones and Caron Butler heavy minutes. San Antonio would clobber them.

-In the game this season without Ibaka, Perry Jones started. It's worthwhile to note Utah was the opposition, and their "PF" was Richard Jefferson/Marvin Williams.

-In two games without Ibaka in 2013, Nick Collison started one and played heavier minutes; Jones started the other game. Perhaps Brooks wanted Collison matched up with Scola in one game and was fine with Jones in the other since it's easier to hide someone on Hickson.

-My own basic team strength metric has San Antonio with a +1.5 point advantage. This includes the playoff games so far. However, when you vary the strength metric by opposition strength, the Thunder are better versus elite teams.

-Tony Parker is also a bit limited, but with a long rest period he could be completely fine. This is what to watch for in the first game.

-There's a rust versus rest argument here, which has been overshadowed by the Ibaka news. The results are unclear with respect to rust and rest, but from my own analysis rust is not harmful.

-The good thing about doing a post right before tip-off: there's news Collison will start. Brooks did start him last season, so it's not a complete surprise. And as Pelton noted, the Collison-Durant pair destroys opponents.

Prediction: San Antonio in seven.

Team................	Team rating (point diff.)	Strength variance	Team rating versus +3 team	Team rating versus +6 team
Oklahoma City Thunder	6.73	0.39	8.49	10.25
Los Angeles Clippers	7.32	0.08	8.15	8.97
San Antonio Spurs	8.24	-0.49	7.35	6.46
Houston Rockets	5.00	0.05	5.75	6.50
Golden State Warriors	4.97	-0.32	4.61	4.24
Dallas Mavericks	3.21	0.18	4.33	5.45
Miami Heat	4.04	-0.20	4.02	4.00
Portland Trail Blazers	3.96	-0.27	3.72	3.49
Indiana Pacers	3.45	-0.11	3.72	3.99
Phoenix Suns	3.05	-0.03	3.54	4.03
Minnesota Timberwolves	3.03	-0.22	2.97	2.91
Toronto Raptors	2.11	0.08	2.93	3.75
Memphis Grizzlies	2.12	-0.02	2.64	3.16
Chicago Bulls	0.83	0.10	1.73	2.62
New York Knicks	-1.37	0.51	0.75	2.87
Washington Wizards	0.82	-0.28	0.56	0.30
Brooklyn Nets	-1.13	0.06	-0.36	0.42
Atlanta Hawks	-0.57	-0.26	-0.77	-0.97
Denver Nuggets	-1.43	-0.14	-1.27	-1.10
New Orleans Pelicans	-2.03	-0.06	-1.60	-1.18
Sacramento Kings	-2.10	-0.11	-1.82	-1.55
Detroit Pistons	-4.11	0.56	-1.83	0.45
Charlotte Bobcats	-0.94	-0.53	-1.93	-2.92
Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.83	-0.10	-3.54	-3.25
Boston Celtics	-4.90	0.03	-4.23	-3.57
Orlando Magic	-5.85	0.24	-4.54	-3.23
Los Angeles Lakers	-5.29	-0.45	-6.06	-6.83
Utah Jazz	-6.22	-0.39	-6.80	-7.38
Milwaukee Bucks	-8.43	0.32	-6.89	-5.34
Philadelphia 76ers	-10.66	-0.39	-11.25	-11.84