2013 Playoffs: Finals

(1) Miami Heat vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs

After all the turmoil of injuries to stars and surprising runs from the Bulls, Warriors, and Pacers, to an extent, it all comes down to the previous champions, with the best record, versus the team with the third best record, and a few titles under their belt. Miami's offense is awe-inspiring at its best, while the Spurs are a deep, balanced team with multiple threats and superb passing at nearly every position. Both teams also play defense well and will make few mistakes. Ignore the uproar about "Stern's team" or any irregularities -- these are two elite teams with hall of fame players going head to head in the finals. Enjoy the great basketball.

What other factors are we ignoring? When judging team strength, you typically use the entire regular season. However, this is unwise in cases where the team made changes during the season. The most notable example is the Detroit Pistons after the Rasheed Wallace trade -- they improved in defensive rating by roughly 8 points and their point differential basically tripled (3.9 to 12.2.) The Heat also took off after a team change, signing Chris Anderson to shore up the frontcourt, although a major reason why they won 27 games in a row was how deadly they were in crunch time. However, before Chris Anderson the Heat were +5.3 in adjusted point differential, and +8.6 in the regular season after his signing. If you include the playoffs, this increases to 9.1. (Spurs are at 6.7) It's hard to differentiate what caused what because with Birdman in the regular season their defense became elite (around 102.6 efficiency), but in the playoffs it's their offense leading the way, although that's partly because I'm calculating an adjusted efficiency and the Heat are scoring well against elite defenses. But seeing Anderson as the catalyst misses the larger issue -- when Wade is healthy, the Heat are a historically strong team. Hence, his awful play versus Indiana can't be ignored, as well as his sudden reemergence in game seven.

Here's the basic reason to be afraid as a Miami Heat fan: the Spurs' defense isn't too far from Indiana's in overall strength, and they have a similar strategy of limiting three-pointers and conceding midrange jumpers. But they are a vastly superior offense with multiple deadly three-point threats, a sophisticated pass-heavy system, and a devastating pick and roll game with Tony Parker. But I don't think it's a simple one-to-one translation here -- Miami ran into difficulties because their weakness, defensive rebounding, played into Indiana's strength, and they had problems defending two strong, huge frontcourt players. David West in particular was problematic because it was a kink in the well-oiled machine: the Heat relied on a supercharged offense propelled by Batter as a strength 4, but Batter can't guard West while West is competent enough on the perimeter to "hide" on a non-scorer like Battier. Versus Diaw or Bonner, this is not an issue, and while Tiago Splitter will cause some problems he's not the same scorer as David West.

Going into the numbers further, the Pacers after Hibbert's wrist injury were a roughly 5 SRS team, while a matchup advantage because of their frontcourt may add another +1, roughly. This means the Heat currently are playing at a +6 SRS level (the sort of team that wins between 56 and 58 games.) The Spurs were slightly better, and with Miami's homecourt advantage this would mean the series is basically even, assuming Wade and Bosh don't improve.

But all the focus on how the Heat are doing is unfair to the Spurs. We've heard enough of Miami at this point, thanks for the streak and all the fanfare of the Heat-bandwagon. Tim Duncan played at defensive player of the year level, knowing exactly when to contest a shot inside, rarely leaving his feet even when blocking shots, and Kawhi Leonard gives them a capable big wing defender. In the modern NBA, defense is about more than having superior athletes or tall players; it's all about the schemes. The Spurs have rededicated themselves to this end and can control even great teams. Last season, they fell to the Thunder partly because they couldn't match with their athleticism, but with Wade's health in question and extended minutes for Ray Allen/Battier/Mike Miller's back this may not be a huge issue. Regardless, it's a team that can send out four elite shooters at once, two seven-footers in a frontcourt, deadly perimeter scoring from Parker and Ginobili, great playmaking from Duncan to Diaw, and one of the best coaches ever. This should not be an easy series.

Again, this all comes down to the health of Wade and Bosh. And Wade's injury is the nagging, painful type he can mostly manage. His great game 7 was probably more of an indicated he gut through pain when needed, rather than him being healed. In predicting a series with unknowns, it's best to split the difference.

Prediction: Heat in six.

What to watch for:
-Wade's health will decide the series. If he's healthy, it's Miami -- no contest. If he's completely unhealthy and never has a good game, the Heat could be crushed.
-Likewise, Bosh is playing on a bad ankle, and the Heat need his midrange jumpers and other contributions.
-Duncan had a season at an age that's nearly unprecedented. It's basically Karl Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar who have similar seasons. Winning a title now, which doesn't seem implausible with this matchup, would historically astounding:  Duncan would have five titles, and he was arguably the best player on each team, and his career would be bookended by some amazing playoff runs.
-One important variable some may overlook: Wade is a great finals player. In 2011 versus Dallas, he put up better numbers than Nowitzki, and of course he has 2006 (even without the refs, he was great.)
-Boris Diaw is quietly one of the oddest players in NBA history. He was drafted as a small forward, found no success on a bad team, went to the seven seconds or less Suns and replaced an explosive Amare Stoudemire, found success as a center, became one of the greatest passing frontcourt players all-time, got traded to the Bobcats, lost his spot in the rotation of arguably the worst team ever, got traded to the Spurs, and helped lead them to the best record in the league. Now he's in the finals and will probably defend LeBron James a few possessions each game -- and he'll do it well.
-The Heat are overly-aggressive on defense guarding the ball, and have a tendency of giving up too many corner three's or other weakside shots. The Spurs are a fantastic passing team and one of the best at shooting from long-range. Keep track of this.
-LeBron needs consecutive titles for people who heavily value titles in all-time player rankings, while Duncan with another title would give him a longevity argument few have. With Wade getting worse and Duncan's age, their opportunities are dwindling in their current environments. This is an important title.

2013 Playoffs: Conference Finals

Eastern Conference

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers

This is a series of matchups. The Pacers are known for a bruising frontcourt, and they rank fourth in the league in offensive rebounding. Heat, meanwhile, are 24th in defensive rebounding, although it's been better after they signed Chris Anderson. This is their biggest weakness and the Pacers are the team to exploit it. The Heat somehow had a good defensive rating (103.7) despite their rebounding, and in fact most teams around their defensive rebound rate are poor defensive teams with the exception of the Celtics. With all the love of smallball lately, there is a reason that for decades and decades, after a whirlwind of changes in race integration to the introduction of the three-point line to hyper-athletic dunking, what has remained constant is height (the average height of the NBA player has not changed in a half-century.) Size is a significant deterrent in defense, and even with the aid of a sophisticated defense, quick feet, and fast hands, big men generally grant you more rebounds. And rebounds will always be valuable. Yes, James is a good enough rebounder to masquerade as a power forward, but as a small forward his rebounding is more valuable -- hence, Cleveland second in the league in defensive rebounding in 2010, and notice the smallball Warriors dead last.

What the Heat do, however, is force turnovers (fifth in the league in opponent turnover rate) while the Pacers, luckily, are 26th. People will focus on the disadvantages the Heat face with the Pacers' size, understandably  but you can't forget these things run both ways. There's a reason the Heat were +7.0 in point differential, ranking near first in offensive ranking at 112.3 points per 100 possessions (+6.5 to league average) and ninth in defensive rating at 103.7 (-2.1).  Pacers, meanwhile, were +3.3 in point differential (SRS) while ranking first in defensive ranking by a hair at 99.8 (-6) but 19th in offense at 104.3 (-1.5). As for another matchup wrinkle, Pacers are second in giving up the least three pointers in the season, and first in three-point percentage defense by a fair margin. Miami shot the sixth most three's and had the second best accuracy. Thanks to a major defensive overhaul, the Pacers defend the line vigorously and flood the paint, sometimes daring players to shoot midrange jumpers instead (the Bulls do this too, as was seen in the playoffs when they let Brook Lopez take open shots.) Bosh, however, is an elite midrange shooter now, and him taking open jumpers is better than most of Indiana's offensive options.

What's important to consider here is that, yes, Pacers have an elite defense, but the Heat have an offense that's just as elite; and the Pacers have a significantly below average offense while the Heat's defense is comfortably above average. This is just an obvious way to say the Heat are the better team, but I think some will get too caught up in the matchups and lose sight of the big picture. Miami may have sacrificed some defense, but the offense is borderline historic, and Indiana is a bad offensive team.

What to watch for:
-Miami starts Haslem because they think it's still 2007 (but honestly it's because the frontcourt is so thin.) It'll be interesting to see who Bosh checks here since Haslem is too short for Hibbert but Bosh is too weak for West.
-Smallball for Miami typically means Battier is the nominal power forward. His defense on West will be very important. In three games against Miami, he was 22.7 points per game on 65.8 FG% versus a season average of 17.1 and 49.8 (his rebounding, interestingly, did not change.)
-Chris Anderson's approach to shotblocking is to fly at a shot attempt and swat it with authority; Hibbert doesn't look for shotblocks as they happen when he's defending the paint by sticking his arms straight up.
-During the regular season Cole was the ingredient to the only bad lineups Miami had. Of the only lineups with at least 100 minutes, seven in total, the only two near average or below average had Cole. Obviously, being a bench player is the problem, but it does go beyond that. If you go by regularized adjusted +/-, he's at -3.3, which was 401st out of 463 players where only eleven played more minutes and had a worse value.
-Wade's health is the key to a title run without big bumps. It's no coincidence the Heat went on a historic win streak when he was healthy.
-We can ignore the Bucks because they were a blip in the radar, but it's now been two playoff series in a row where LeBron hasn't played up to his ridiculous standards. He's had his moments, but they haven't been sustained. His numbers are down, as he's shooting less and his efficiency has regressed. Is he just not trying and saving his energy, or should we be concerned? Indiana will be the first real test because Miami knows they can't sleep on them.

Prediction: Miami in five.

Western Conference

(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (5) Memphis Grizzlies

After a couple series slaying giants, the Grizzlies are everyone's favorite right now, partly due to an uncompromising style. With all the love of Gasol's all around game, Randolph's below the rim play, Tony Allen's physical defense, and the two-way play of Mike Conley, there's a reason the Spurs won more games and had a superior point differential. The Grizzlies are the western conference version of the Pacers -- elite defense, in fact if you adjust for strength of schedule it's a better defense, but they have a below average offense. But after defeating the Clippers, who had a similar point differential and win total to the Spurs, and the Westbrook-less Thunder, still a strong team, should we once again overlook the Grizzlies?

Let's run through the numbers. Spurs have an adjusted point differential of +6.7 with the league's seventh-ranked offense at 108.3 (+2.5) and, surprisingly, the league's third best defense at 100.3 (-4.2.) Memphis, however, has a point differential of +4.3 with the league's 17th ranked offense at 104.9 (-0.9) but the league's second best defense at 100.3 (-5.5), although adjusted for strength of schedule it's the league's best by a whisker. I think people are sleeping on the Spurs -- their defense is barely different from Memphis', and this is with Duncan playing 30 minutes a night, and have not descended into smallball as they start two seven-footers with Tiago Splitter, a Brazilian big man who rolls well to the rim where he shoots near 70%. The hiccups the Spurs had against the Warriors were partly due to Curry's insane shooting, yes, but also due to various ailments like an ankle injury to Splitter, Diaw coming back from a donut-induced trauma, and a virus that infected Duncan.

With homecourt advantage, San Antonio has a pretty strong chance, since it's difficult to have a coaching advantage of Popovich and the size of the Grizzlies isn't a particular concern for the Spurs. Zach Randolph averaged 14 and 10 on 36% shooting versus the Spurs, and yes, Splitter played every game, started most of them, and Duncan even missed a game. They also have the stout and surprisingly good defender Diaw to throw at him. As fun as the Grizzlies are, they rely on inefficient midrange jumpers, while the Spurs have Parker's pick and roll, Duncan's post offense, and long-range bombing -- Danny Green is surprisingly 10th all-time in three-point percentage and Bonner is 14th. Yes, the Grizzlies' defense will blunt those weapons, but they cannot attack with the same ferocity back on offense. It'll be a great series, but I think the two most likely outcomes are Spurs in 5 and Spurs in 7 -- and I'll go with 7 games, in case the Spurs pick up another small injury, as they tend to do.

What to watch for:

-Duncan was arguably the best defensive player in the league, though Gasol deserves an edge for his minutes played. Duncan is a master at contesting without fouling, and actually put up a blocks per foul rate historically great and only bested by gigantic centers like Manute Bol.
-Gasol versus Duncan is a premier center matchup. It'll be a battle of fundamentals, a battle of subtle moves, nice passing, soft touches, and intelligent post defense.
-Parker versus Conley, by contrast, will also be top-flight, where Tony Allen will come in now and again to wreak havoc. Tony Allen, like with the Thunder series, has no point in playing without an elite wing, and would be better matched up to come off the bench.

Prediction: Spurs in seven.

Edit: Fixed error with Spurs' offensive ranking compared to the league average from +3.5 to +2.5.

2013 Playoffs: Second Round, Part II

(1) Miami Heat vs. (5) Chicago Bulls

This one screams "quick four or five game" series, with the safest bet being five games due to Chicago's resilence and the brilliant defensive mastermind of Tom Thibodeau. I've been terrible so far in predicting the playoffs, but to be fair there have been some odd turns. I wasn't surprised seeing Memphis knocking off the Clippers, especially because of the Griffin injury, as I thought it was a coin flip series, but the Nuggets had no business losing to the Warriors. Denver responded to Golden State's smallball often with the large Bogut in the middle by benching their productive bigs leaving Faried to guard the basket, which according to a few physics theorems is basically impossible. Then Chicago beat the Nets despite the talent disparity and Noah's injury, plus the Biblical calamities that fell on the rest of the roster. Be careful walking the stairs, Jimmy Butler. Seriously.

Somehow the Heat get to play under negative SRS (adjusted point differential) team. Strictly going by the numbers, this is more likely a sweep, but again, I trust Thibodeau and an inspired game from this crew. That's pretty much what everyone else is saying about the series, but I think no one understands how bad the Bulls were this year given how weak the east was. They were lucky to win 45 games, and beating the Nets was a upset with their injuries. The Bulls have a brand name, sure, but Thibodeau really needs to be given credit for decimating the Nets' "coaching." Too bad you can't use smoke and mirrors to erase LeBron from the series.

What to watch for:
-At full strength, the Bulls may have the best defense against the Heat with Butler, Hinrich, Deng, Gibson, and Noah.
-Miami has two glaring weaknesses -- big centers and rebounding -- but the Bulls won't be able to fully exploit those.
-They've an above average rebounding team, great on offensive rebounding, but not superhuman like they were a couple years ago.
-While Noah is doing his best impression of Bill Walton/video game character with his health bar near zero but just hit a power-up, he's not enough offensively to attack Miami and hurt them.
-LeBron by his own standards had a lackluster first round, but he was probably bored. If he wants a season for the ages he needs to set up his game.
-There's a good chance the Heat will sweep, and then we'll be bombarded with another win streak.

Prediction: Heat in five.

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Golden State Warriors

I don't think the Warriors know what they got themselves into. They're going into the teeth of a well-oiled machine, and while we've seen the Spurs come up short recently this is an organization that with the exception of a David Robinson injury-plagued season hasn't had a sub-50 win season (lockout seasons adjusted) since 1989, and the big three appear to be fully healthy. Splitter and Diaw are still ailing and recovering, but the Spurs don't need size against the lilliputian Warriors, save Bogut, who goes from guarding Faried, Koufos, or McGee to a resurgent Tim Duncan season. The Spurs have to be happy about Westbrook's injury as much as anyone, because they know as well as anyone that anything can happen once you make it to the finals. Underdogs can win.

Curry's going to be blanketed by a smarter team and bigger defenders. The Warriors won't be able to break out in transition as much. Their three-pointers won't be quite so open. No one noticed, but San Antonio quietly had a great defensive year. If Ginobili is healthy, he's going to shred the Warriors' bench. There are just few positive signs for Golden State and San Antonio will have a couple of big blowouts. They're ecstatic the Warriors found some luck and pulled off an upset, because now it's basically like another first round opponent for Spurs. Like Miami, their path to the finals is being paved by whatever force -- destiny, God, David Stern (obviously, because he loves seeing the bland market of San Antonio prevail again.)

What to watch for:
-Tim Duncan had one of the best seasons ever in terms of avoiding fouls while blocking shots at the rim. The Warriors will come to learn this.
-The Spurs are not a boring franchise, and Ginobili is one of the main reasons why. We don't know how much longer he'll play, or how many more moments he'll have up to his standards, but we're approaching victory lap territory. Cherish the plays.
-I think we're all waiting for the game back in Oakland where Curry makes 9 three's and the crowd sustains jet engine noise for the entirety of the contest. That one they can win.
-David Lee's defense, now a league-wide joke, is going to be hampered by an injury and will face a smart defense and, if things go horribly awry, Lee may end up guarding Duncan on a few plays.
-Is Barnes having a Tayshaun Prince breakout year in the playoffs, like some rookies or young players have, or is this a Trevor Ariza-like three-point streak that will frizzle out the rest of his career?
-Despite Curry's amazing year shooting from outside, his TS% is one-tenth of one percent better than Tony Parker's, because Parker can actually get to the paint and make layups. Lost in Curry's magical season is his inability to get to the rim.

Prediction: Spurs in five games.

2013 Playoffs: Second Round, Part I

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a really tough series to predict. If I'm going purely by numbers and not matchups, I'm going with the Thunder, but when I look at the teams themselves and the matchups possible I want to say the Grizzlies may have a better chance.

After Westbrook went down, I estimated their new team strength would be around a +5.5 point differential, and lo and behold adjusting for their opponent and homecourt they were a +6 team after Westbrook went down. I even said, "Don't be surprised if they drop a couple games," and they indeed did. I was right on in predicting how much more Fisher, Reggie Jackson, and Sefolosha would play, but I did not predict an Atlas-like minutes load from Durant, which probably put them over the top to hit the +6 mark. He will not continue to play that much, as no one has done so in the playoffs since 2009. However, the Thunder now have a little more time to adjust their defensive problems and Reggie Jackson will have some actual experience under his belt.

Unfortunately for Memphis, if the Thunder continue to play at this level they are a slightly better team than the Grizzlies, and a slightly better team with homecourt advantage is a better decent bet. This is where the matchups come in. The Grizzlies are known for their bruising frontcourt, and Conley should have little trouble getting by Jackson or Fisher. Durant is now the only shot creator on the team, and he's going to be hounded by an elite defense with Tony Allen, Prince's long arms, and Marc Gasol waiting in the paint. And poor Kevin Martin, coming off a rough series when his team needed him the most, will often by harassed by Tony Allen. Weaknesses are magnified in the postseason where coaches and assistants work overtime in preparation, and the Thunder have some glaring problems: Durant turns the ball over when he forces the issue, the point guards are not starting caliber, and an entire system that relied on a player who had never missed a game is thrown into flux while the Grizzlies just feasted on a good team.

Another matchup problem is how isolation heavy Oklahoma City are. Against a great defense, a predictable offense will be destroyed, and this was not made apparent during the previous series because the Rockets were not a good defensive team. The Thunder had an unusually high scoring margin during the regular season, but they've also had magnificent health -- Durant, Westbrook, Harden when he was there, and Ibaka were missing less games per year than five. That inflated their team numbers a bit, and now they have to play without their all-star point guard. Even if I go purely by the numbers, this looks like a seven game series, but I think the Grizzlies take this one because they can exploit weaknesses.

What to watch for:
-Nick Collison is actually a Zach Randolph stopper, but it remains to be seen if the Thunder actually know this and will use it.
-Durant as a playmaker. Compared to most elite perimeter players, he's far behind in this respect. This is the time where he needs to emerge as a playemaker.
-Memphis is a terrible team shooting from the three-point line, but I don't think the Thunder are disciplined enough right now to take advantage of this.
-The rotation of the Thunder big men. How much will Ibaka guard Randolph? Will he draw him out using his jumper? Can Perkins actually guard Gasol and how much will he play? And how much smallball will we see?
-Randolph again will go against a highflying athletic power forward, and may again destroy a man built of pure muscle in the paint.
-Jerryd Bayless is acting like a kick-returner on offense, zipping to the rim with reckless abandon. Awkwardly, the Thunder are using Fisher and Martin off the bench at the guard slots, and there might be some odd matchups when Bayless is on the court.

Prediction: Grizzlies in six.

(2) New York Knicks vs. (3) Indiana Pacers

Matchups, matchups -- the Knicks rely on Carmelo's offense, and the Pacers have the newly minted elite long and quick defensive wing in Paul George; and they rely on long-range bombing while the Pacers are known for shutting down three-pointers. Team strength? It's basically a +3.7 team in New York versus a +3.3 team in the Pacers, except the Pacers have been luckier with health and New York (if they remain healthy) is probably a bit stronger.

I think we might be underrating the Knicks because the Celtics played their hearts out. When Carmelo is playing well, they're a pretty good team. It's that "when" that's in question, while the Pacers consistently have a great defense -- that, in fact, is why defensive teams fare better in the playoffs. Your three-pointers won't always hit their mark, but your rotations probably will. And, once again, we have a low post bruising team versus an offensive club. New York almost exclusively plays smallball now, which makes David West's defensive assignment a bit troublesome. However, Anthony will often be called to guard West in the post, likely taking abuse.

Notice how I keep downplaying the Knicks? They're an inconsistent team who have gone through dead stretches during the season, while the Pacers' biggest problem was Hibbert's horrid shooting problem, which went away as soon as he fully recovered from an elbow injury. But there's one key to the Knicks' season, and no, it's not the mercurial JR Smith; it's Tyson Chandler. He played terrible in the opening games of the Boston series, but improved as he went on. Shumpert, too, improved as the series continued, and he is their best wing defender and will be called on to defend Paul George. If Carmelo Anthony plays up to his standards, the Knicks with homecourt advantage have greater odds to win. But it's all contingent on "if"....

What to watch for:
-Tyson Chandler needs to keep his health because he's going against a great rebounding team and a Goliath at center in the post.
-The Pacers concede midrange jumpers, and this could work well in goading JR Smith into taking stupid shots instead of being aggressive and attacking the rim.
-Playing the Knicks, the Pacers actually get to be seen on national TV, and unlike the last game against the Hawks (the only one not on NBA TV) it will be heavily featured because of the lore of New York.
-Tyler Hansbrough has yet to see a shot he didn't want to take, and Kenyon Martin has been playing remarkable defense. Expect to see a few marvelous rejections when the benches are used.
-Sadly, Felton is highly important on offense, and as a fan in Portland would tell you this would not put one at ease.
-As a sidenote, I can't think of a more interesting destination for Chris Paul than Indiana. It won't happen for a variety of reasons, but his half-court mastery would be a perfect fit for a team desperate for offense.

Prediction: New York in seven games (I've written negative articles about you before, Carmelo, but now is the chance to redeem yourself.)

Edit: Accidentally called the Pacers a fifth seed. Oops.

How Westbrook Changes the 2013 Playoffs

The problem with predictions is that the future will not be like the past. Random events occur, throwing off everything to come. Westbrook allegedly hasn't missed a game since junior high, but after tearing his meniscus he's out for weeks, where he may not even make it back in time for the start of the NBA finals. As many NBA analysts have discussed, it was looking like a rematch of Thunder-Heat, especially when one considers the historically strong point differential of the Thunder. With Westbrook out, however, suddenly the west is wide open, and we may see an intriguing, veteran Spurs team in the finals or, as strange as it sounds, the Clippers.

Since Westbrook hasn't missed an NBA game before (439 including the playoffs consecutively), this is a fantastic challenge to the NBA statistics community on predicting the Thunder's performance without him. There are extremely few minutes with backup point guard Reggie Jackson with the other starters, much less ancient veteran Fisher. Lineup analysis is difficult, as the Thunder have never had to deal with extended stretches without Westbrook. It will take careful, precise predictions of how the team performs.

Additionally, here are also two schools of thought on Westbrook -- he shoots way too much, considering Durant is on the same team, damaging his team in the process; or his aggressive style is overall a tremendous positive, even overriding the bad shots. The debate will be armed with new information, but I think the latter has a stronger case. The Thunder's offense was arguably the best during the 2013 season, especially adjusting for strength of schedule, after coming in second in 2012 and Westbrook was the point guard orchestrating the affairs and the player who shot the most. Although Durant is an amazing shooter, Westbrook often receives the short end of the stick at the end of shot clocks, responsible for creating offense out of thin air. But now low usage players well be replacing his minutes, and if he is indeed a monkey wrench in a well-oiled machine the Thunder should hardly miss a beat.

Methods: Win Shares, PER, and IPV (TalkingPractice)

As a limited dataset of lineups featuring non-Westbrook point guards inhibits 5-man analysis, and the fact that there are no missed games to analyze how the Thunder fare without him, the effect of losing Westbrook has to be estimated through individual player stats. I'll present three different methods and a handful of estimates through guessing the players whose minutes will increase without him. I'll also judge the Thunder's strength with and without him through SRS (point differential adjusted for strength of schedule.)

(The next part explains how I calculated the new team strength, so you may skip that if you want.)


The first metric I used is the popular all-in-one player metric: Win Shares. This is easy to work with because Win Shares are in a system where it's easy to convert player changes into team level win percentage changes. For the win percentage of the Thunder before the injury, I used the projected regular season win percentage based on adjusted point differential because it's generally more predictive than plain ol' win percentage. From there, it's a quick back calculation to the new Westbrook-less point differential using the Pythagorean win formula (Points^14/(Points^14 + Opposing points^14)).


The next all-in-one metric is PER, the flagship of the ESPN empire. Frankly, I'm using this out of curiosity, as I don't think it will perform well and due to its heavy bias to high usage players like Westbrook, and the low PER's from the bench guys, it'll be interesting to see the pessimistic outlook. For estimating the loss in SRS, I converted his EWA (estimated wins added through PER) to EWA per game and then subtracted that from the Thunder's win percentage. PER assumes Westbrook was displacing a replacement level player, but this isn't entirely accurate so I added in the estimated boost in win percentage from a set of replacement minutes heavy in crappy backups (i.e. Fisher) and another set with more minutes devoted to better players (i.e. increasing the workload for Durant and Ibaka.) I did the same boost with the other metrics. ESPN gives the full details on Estimated Wins Added on the advanced stats page, if one is curious.


VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.

The last metric used is a form of regularized adjusted +/- from TalkingPractice. Plus/minus is just looking at the point differential when a player is on the court, adjusted means regression is used to find the best fit, and regularized is basically a fancy mathematical way to reduce wildly high/low estimates for players with low minutes. The site calls their metric IPV (individual player value), and due to the NBA statistical analyst exodus (they're being hired by teams) it's the best, and one of the few, publicly available +/- stats. A few box score stats are also used to help shape IPV, so it's also not a complete departure from conventional stats.

For player minutes, I have two different situations. One is called the "pessimistic" model: no other player minutes will increase except point guard backups Reggie Jackson by 18 minutes, Fisher by 12 minutes, and shooting guard Sefolosha by 5 minutes. Note that the total minutes displaced here is 35, which is roughly Westbrook's average for the regular season. I'm calculating an adjusted point differential based on the regular season stats instead of a minutes distribution you'd see in the playoffs (Westbrook played 38 a game last year in the playoffs.) Since I've used regular season point differential in playoff predictions, this is fine, as I'll be comparing alike-things. The other minutes distribution, the "optimal model," gives more time to their better players, and suggests the Thunder play less smallball because they lost one of their best small players: Reggie Jackson 13 minutes, Fisher 8 minutes, Sefolosha 6 minutes, Durant 2 minutes, and Ibaka 6 minutes.

Oklahoma City's new team strength

Based on a few different player metrics, there's a range of estimated team strengths in point differential for the Thunder without Westbrook. Win Shares doesn't love Westbrook because it's built on efficiency, and as I've discussed before it gives a lot of unearned credit just for simply being on a great defensive team. In replacing him, they'd still be an elite team, even with the pessimistic minutes distribution. PER, however, views his high usage play as extremely valuable, and finds the backup options as the flotsam of the league -- even Sefolosha doesn't have a good PER. IPV, however, finds an estimate in between the two metrics, and sees the dropoff as significant but not debilitating.

Metric	OKC pre-injury SRS	Westbrook per game	OKC post-injury SRS, pess. mins	OKC post-injury SRS, opt. mins
Win Shares	9.15	5.1	6.5	7.2
PER	9.15	7.2	2.2	2.7
IPV	9.15	3.4	5.3	6.3

I don't believe Win Shares or PER are up to this task, and IPV nicely finds a middle ground between the total collapse of not having a creator and the underrated contributions of their other players. Given our limited information on Reggie Jackson and Fisher, as well the future minutes distribution in the playoffs, any estimate will be a rough guess at best, but the magnitude is important to note. A point differential from 5.1 to 6.5 (IPV's range with a little leeway) is in the same range as the Nuggets (+5.4) and the Clippers (+6.4.) PER and Win Shares also tend to clump all the player value at the very top, evident from Westbrook's estimated +/- per game.

However, Fisher's IPV value is strangely decent, near 0 instead of the typical negative value you'd see from an end of the bench type. This is where knowledge of the metrics you use can come in handy -- IPV uses a prior value that heavily influences the final number, and Fisher has had consistently strong +/- values in the past. Since he's played few minutes recently, there is not enough information to downgrade Fisher's IPV any further (for example, Granger's +/- is very similar to the one he had last year because he had very few possessions to convince the model his value was different.) That type of adjustment may bring down their point differential incrementally, and you can make another one due to hitherto unused lineups being rusty as players try to adapt to each other.

I'd estimate this Thunder team is now somewhere around the +5.5 SRS level, depending on who they play and how Fisher looks. This should be enough to finish off the Rockets, but don't be surprised if they drop a couple games. It looks like the Clippers will meet them in the next round, and they're more likely the stronger team. With homecourt advantage, the series based on my estimates is nearly a coin flip. I'd take the Clippers in seven, maybe even less -- they have a slight edge in adjusted point differential even adjusting for homecourt, and the Thunder have to go against Chris Paul without their all-star point guard. The Clippers often use a lot of players on offense you can hide weaker defenders like Fisher, but it's not enough to overcome the loss of Westbrook. Against a healthy Spurs team? They'd have little chance.

It's time to see what Westbrook's value really is.

2013 Playoff Preview and Predictions

I didn't produce any articles here for a while until the end of the season came (kidnapped by a mysterious Berri gang), but I have more time right now for more content. Expect articles and small research studies to be churned out more frequently.

Eastern Conference

(1) Miami Heat vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

When predicting a series, the best bet is five games if you think the outcome is pretty obvious. Four games are only more likely when the series is lopsided, like when a sub-0.500 team meets a defending champion running on all cylinders. Really not much to say here.

What to watch for:
-Larry Sanders' defense. The most unstoppable player once he gets to the rim (LeBron, not Battier, I know you're all thinking) meets one of the best interior defenders.
-What happens with the big man rotation? How much time will Haslem get? How long will they play with a traditional power forward?
-The most interesting part of the series is seeing if the Heat are going for the undefeated playoff run.

Prediction: Miami in four.

(2) New York Knicks vs. (7) Boston Celtics

Although historically it seems more impressive because of the names involved, it's a 3.7 SRS (point differential adjusted for strength of schedule) team versus one that's -0.6. Yes, losing Rondo and gaining Bradley has led to some good defense, but over the last 25 games the Celitcs still don't have a positive point differential. Also, if you haven't heard yet, the Knicks were just on a torrid stretch (but no, you likely dissenting MVP voter who will destroy LeBron's chance at a unanimous award, he can't be the MVP.) Injures could make this series interesting, but the injuries appear to be on both sides.

What to watch for:
-If he stays healthy, Avery Bradley has a chance to be one of the greatest perimeter defenders ever. Normally, it's a bad idea to full-court press a team unless you're in dire straights at the end of a game. Sometimes people ask, after watching college basketball, why NBA teams don't employ it more often, and the answer is that NBA players are way too skilled to be trapped and pressured that easily. Avery Bradley is so great at this he's the exception.
-Every year we wonder if this is it for the Garnett-Pierce Celtics, and last year Ray Allen actually did leave. It's been a dominating run for the old guys, but perhaps this is farewell (again.)
-With the barrage of three-pointers and Carmelo at the 4, the offense clearly works well, but they need to reshape their defense into what it was last year to have any shot at making at dent in Miami's armor. How defenders like Tyson and Shumpert look here will be important later.

Prediction: Knicks in five.

(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks

This match-up is similar to Knicks-Celtics. Once you adjust for strength of schedule, the Hawks are almost perfectly average. Pacers, along with the Grizzlies, have the best defense in the NBA. Horford is an undersized center and will be hard-pressed to score inside against the giant Hibbert, although the jump-shooting could bring him out from the paint. But the Hawks already have some problems scoring, and the Pacers' best lineups destroyed the league. There are virtually no factors that bode well for the Hawks; they lost Zaza Pachulia, a center known for his tough (and) annoying play. Recent play? Hawks have been, again, average in the past 25 games, while the Pacers have had a better offense. This series shouldn't take long.

What to watch for:
-Hibbert's defense is DPOTY-worthy, and his offensive slump ended months ago, which some people forgot. So this is a guy who was named an all-star, kept up his box score production after the contract once you ignore his wrist-injury plagued games, and improved defensively more than anyone not named Larry Sanders.
-The over/under of games on NBATV is the same as the over/under of games played in the series.
-The Pacers' defense is worth the price of admission, if you're an NBA die-hard.

Prediction: Pacers in five.

(4) Brooklyn Nets vs. (5) Chicago Bulls

The series rests on Noah's foot. His plantar fasciitis will make him unlikely for at least the first game. Given the lack of depth at center, no homecourt advantage, and the location of Rose unknown -- will he make some improbable comeback when we least expect it, with a cape and a mask? -- it's an uphill battle for the Bulls. The safe bet is to take the Nets -- they played better, won more games, have homecourt, less injury concerns, and they've played better in the second half. Deron Williams, in particular, has regained his form as an all-star point guard, and alongside the gawky Lopez who's defending decently and scoring well, Evans rebounding like Rodman, and Joe Johnson ... existing, the Nets shouldn't have any problems as long as nothing weird happens. The season numbers for the Nets aren't great, but over the last 25 games they've been a strong team. I'm going to predict another boring five game series, but in the first round that's the safest bet, especially when all the planets are in alignment for one team.

What to watch for:
-Seriously, Reggie Evans rebounded like Dennis Rodman. What's fascinating is that Rodman wasn't like this when he was younger and only transformed into an insane rebounding magnet in his 30's, just like Evans.
-Lopez has worked hard on improving his defense. With his size and length he should always have an advantage inside, but his mobility and effort have never been consistent. Hibbert isn't the fast man in the world, but if he can contend for DPOTY then Lopez can be above average.
-Jimmy Butler has just joined the cast of excellent perimeter role players every contender wants: his defense is outstanding and he can hit a three. I think this group is led by Bruce Bowen with Batter as the accountant.
-You'd have a hard time convincing me Gerald Wallace actually played in the '13 season.

Prediction: Nets in five.

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder versus (8) Houston Rockets

The Thunder completed a season with an adjusted point differential that's 9th all-time where all eight teams above them won a title except for the '72 Bucks, who were behind the Lakers in point differential the same year. People think of their offense, but OKC somehow has the fourth best defense in the league. When your offense relies on Durant's incredible scoring, Westbrook's drives, and some efficient third options (Martin/Ibaka/Collison), and you can append elite defense, the road to the finals is already paved for you. I guess this is a way of saying the Rockets stand no chance. I think the most likely outcome is one game lost, but I think it's nearly a toss-up between that and a sweep. The Rockets, however, have an adjusted point differential much stronger than a typical 8-seed, and it's actually just behind the 2nd-seed Knicks. But the gap is too large between Houston and Oklahoma City. Maybe one game they'll rain down three's like it's all-star Saturday night, but this series is only watching for the Harden reunion/humiliation.

What to watch for:

-Harden should get an award is he has a good series here. The Rockets don't really have another good offensive option, and the Thunder know him well. He's going to be attacked.

-Asik's defense should get DPOTY-consideration because when he's on the court the team is somehow above average and would be ranked somewhere in between the Heat and Hawks for 10th, while on the bench the Rockets plummet to 27th, barely ahead of the lowly Hornets.

-Thabo has quietly become a great perimeter defender.

-The Lin/Parsons romance, which should be spun into a great novel someday.

Prediction: Thunder in five.

(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Predictions are difficult when you have little relevant information. Nash/Gasol/Howard without Kobe has been the lineup for five more minutes than Jordan/Wilt/Nixon was in 2013. It's really hard to ascertain Nash's contribution at this point, especially with all the rust he's collected; but a conservative estimate has him likely better than the horrible point guards LA has had all year. The series is down to Pau/Howard trying to destroy the Spurs' frontline; unfortunately, the Spurs have gone with Splitter/Duncan lineups for a long time, negating any size advantages. The Spurs are also one of the best ball movement and three-point shooting teams in the league -- just what the Lakers can't defend. Tony Parker's injury concerns could make this interesting, but the Lakers, obviously, have more problems and unlike San Antonio no depth to replace the talent. With a crazy series of uncertainty, it's best to think simple and go with a conservative estimate. A 2-seed versus a 7-seed? Duncan is healthy and playing well? Kobe's out? Yeah, the truth has to be stretched for the Lakers here.

What to watch for:

-Howard versus Duncan could be one for the ages. Howard has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, finally healthy; Duncan is having one of the best old man seasons in NBA history and likely wants to destroy the Lakers.

-The Lakers' perimeter defense and defensive rotation are vital if they want a chance, which is far-fetched anyhow.

-The high/low game between Pau and Howard is fun to watch for anyone who loves NBA centers.

-Manu, we all miss you.

-T-Mac, is that really you?

Prediction: Spurs in five.

(3) Denver Nuggets versus (6) Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are marginally an above average team, while Denver has played like a dark horse contender lately. That's the series in a nutshell. I think Gallinari's injury is more of a concern than most people because they'll miss his defense and outside shooting, but that's only a problem when they face real competition. Lawson has a nagging heel injury, complicating matters further, but it appears it may not be an issue. The Warriors' defense is not disciplined enough to exploit Denver's offensive weaknesses, and while they've played well in the last 25 games Denver has been even better. Unless Lawson is hampered by injury, this series will be short. 

What to watch for:

-Curry's three-point shooting was otherworldly. No one has ever combined his accuracy, volume, and difficulty as he's often shooting off the dribble and contested.

-JaVale McGee. I don't need to add to that.

-The Nuggets in transition.

-Andre Miller's famed old man game: his hesitation, his footwork, his deceptiveness, his clever moves, his alley-oops ... it's all basketball skill, not brawn.

Prediction: Nuggets in five.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus (5) Memphis Grizzlies

This is the highest quality series of the first round and one of the toughest to predict. Both are strong teams and better than anyone except Miami in the east. The Clippers have fallen off defensively and can't contend with the Grizzlies' strength inside. Tony Allen and Conley will harass Paul to no end. The Grizzlies have the best defense in the west (though they're still not west of the Mississippi.) However, LA has homecourt advantage, a larger point differential, and have played better since the all-star break; they even won the season series with a recent win that almost single-handedly decided their seeding. 

I see the Clippers winning in most instances, but the Grizzlies can still make it a tough fight. Memphis' defense  falls off a cliff when Marc Gasol sits since they have no good defensive big men on the bench; consequently, he'll see little rest. The Clippers also have no idea what to do at center at the end of games where Jordan's free-throw shooting is problematic. Odom at center is fine for Don Nelson, not a finals contender. I'd be more convinced of a five game series if LA knew what to do with its rotation -- Bledsoe is fun but when he plays with Paul it's easier for Allen to guard Paul, Billups should be in retirement, Willie Green shouldn't be in a playoff rotation, Caron Butler at his best is a wash, Crawford has a claim for worst defender (with big minutes) in the league, Grant Hill remembers Betamax, and Barnes has been so surprisingly effective that I'm afraid Del Negro will limit his minutes somehow. (Lakers let Barnes go sign a minimum contract and desperately could use him right now.) But they have homecourt advantage. The safest play here is for the Clippers.

What to watch for:

-With the high value of defensive big men, it's difficult for Tony Allen to ever win a DPOTY trophy, but he deserves some sort of plaque for his perimeter defense.

-Speaking of defense, Griffin is somehow underrated and is slowly starting to realize his athleticism can be used for blocking shots.

-Marc Gasol's intelligent defense.

-Above the rim : below the rim :: Blake Griffin : Zach Randolph. Somehow, Griffin doesn't take advantage of this.

Prediction: Clippers in seven.

For fun, here's an early prediction of the rest of the playoffs:

-Thunder over the Clippers in five games.

-Spurs over the Nuggets in seven games.

-Heat over the Nets in five games.

-Knicks over the Pacers in seven games.

-Thunder over the Spurs in five games. 

(Depends on Parker's health and if the ghosts of T-Mac and McGrady show up.)

-Heat over the Knicks in five games.

-Heat over the Thunder in seven games.