Introduction
Who is the best shooter in the NBA?
This question is a popular one, but there are no clear
answers. You can bring up someone’s textbook form, how high the player releases
the ball, or how quickly the shot is released, but it always goes back to
whether or not the player makes the shot. Unfortunately, for most of the NBA’s
history there is simply not enough information to reach a definitive
conclusion. There’s field goal percentage, but all the jumpers are comingled
with inside shots. Shaq’s near 60 percent for his career from the field, and no
one confuses him with an excellent shooter. Three pointers are the ultimate
weapon of great shooters; however, it’s only been used in the NBA since 1979. And
how do you compare a guy who creates his own shot like Larry Bird with a
spot-up shooter like Steve Kerr?
Methodology
I’ve given this question my best attempt with a public
database that goes back to the 2006-07 season (Hoopdata.com.) Essentially we’re
looking at the best shooters of the past five seasons. Shots are divided into
zones, and I used three of these zones – shots from 10 to 15 feet, 16 to 23
feet, and beyond the three-point line, as well as free throws (one of the most
objective basketball stats.) In a manner similar to what John Hollinger used
(found here) I created a composite score based on the percentages from those
distances with a few tweaks.
One adjustment was to award guys for unassisted attempts by
a multiplier of a maximum 10 percent. This was to help guys who had to create
their own shots versus role players who get to wait on the three point line to
take one. For example, if a player was never assisted on any of his 16-23 foot
field goals, then his percentage from that distance would be multiplied by 1.1.
If, however, he was assisted on half, then the multiplier would be 1.05. I did
something similar to shot attempts per minute because that roughly correlates
with taking more contested and tougher shots. An extra 20 percent was awarded
instead of 10, and the maximum allotment was based on the highest per minute
attempts from someone with at least 150 attempts. Kobe Bryant had 0.788
attempts from 10 to 15 feet when the maximum was 1.113, so Kobe had a
multiplier of 1.139 (0.788/1.113*1.2=1.139.) With his assist multiplier being
1.074, his percentage from that distance was adjusted from 47.8 to 58.5.
In order to compare percentages, everything was standardized
from 0 to 1 based on the maximum percentage with 150 attempts. Kobe’s adjusted
percentage of 58.5 was changed to 0.955. Then the standardized scores were
added with a 33.3 weight to three-pointers and free throws, and 16.7 to the midrange
distances. Less weight was given to the latter so everything would be balanced
between two-point jump shots, free throws, and three pointers. The weights were
also chosen so the composite would be out of 100; think of an academic scale
where 90 and above are A’s, 80 and above B’s, etc. A 100 is essentially a
percent score for players with enough field goal attempts, although since the
10-15 range is less used for most shooters I let guys qualify for the final
rankings with only 100 attempts instead of 150 like the other distances; that
meant a score over 100 is possible. I also included an unadjusted composite
score built the same way except multipliers for assisted shots and shots/minutes
weren’t used.
Results
The results are fascinating. Out of 166 qualifying players
from 2006-07 to 2010-11, the top adjusted composite score (ACS) was 99.3 from
Steve Nash. Again, a score of 100 is virtually perfect, and the next closest
guy was Anthony Morrow at 94.2. The top twenty players are shown in a table
below. His dominance is astounding – not only is he the best free throw
shooter, but he nearly had the best three-point percentage (although his
adjusted three pointer percentage is best) and he had the top marks for
unadjusted and adjusted from 10 to 15 feet. He’s also no slouch from 16 to 23
feet. That 51.6 percent from that awkward range? He was only assisted on 6
percent of those.
The rest of the list is intriguing but logical. One surprise
is that Morrow is number two, but looking at his numbers you can see why – he’s
Nash-like in his percentages from anywhere on the floor. Given that he’s only
26, it’ll be interesting to see where his numbers will end up when he retires. His
weakness is that he’s a spot-up shooter, and thus makes easier shots so his
adjusted score is lower than his unadjusted composite. Stephen Curry is even
younger at 23 years, and if he could improve from 10 to 15 feet and stay
upright despite glass ankles he has the only realistic shot at catching up to
Nash. Dirk Nowitzki and Ray Allen aren’t surprising because anyone should list
them near the top of a best shooters list, but Mo Williams probably is. He’s
excellent from every spot, and he’s a point guard instead of a spot-up
specialist who scores at a decent rate.
Some players are lower on the list than others would think,
but for good reasons. Stojakovic is over 90 at the line, but he shot a lower
percentage from both distances inside the three point line than outside. The
same problem occurred for Szczerbiak, as my method punished three point
specialists who couldn’t hit midrange shots. Kobe Bryant makes the list, helped
by his attempts per minute and his mastery of the 10 to 15 foot range, but if
Lakers fans complain that he should be even higher due to the high degree of difficulty,
then why is his free-throw percentage so low? No one’s guarding him there.
(Random note: without the minimum field goal requirement for ACS, Eddy Curry
would be sitting on top with a score of 102.8 solely because he was 1 for 1
from behind the three point line. All his other percentages were terrible.)
Rank
|
Player
|
10-15 ft. %
|
16-23 ft. %
|
Three pointer %
|
Free throw %
|
Composite score
|
Adj. comp. score
|
1
|
Steve Nash
|
51.6
|
47.7
|
44.2
|
91.7
|
99.1
|
99.3
|
2
|
Anthony Morrow
|
49.0
|
44.7
|
44.7
|
88.5
|
96.5
|
94.2
|
3
|
Stephen Curry
|
36.9
|
46.0
|
43.9
|
91.1
|
93.4
|
92.6
|
4
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
47.5
|
48.6
|
38.6
|
89.6
|
93.2
|
92.2
|
5
|
Ray Allen
|
47.6
|
45.2
|
39.7
|
91.2
|
93.4
|
91.6
|
6
|
Mo Williams
|
49.2
|
45.1
|
39.4
|
87.6
|
92.4
|
91.5
|
7
|
Ben Gordon
|
43.9
|
44.6
|
39.7
|
87.0
|
90.5
|
90.2
|
8
|
Jason Kapono
|
40.0
|
47.5
|
44.4
|
83.5
|
92.5
|
89.5
|
9
|
Jason Terry
|
46.9
|
47.4
|
38.1
|
85.3
|
90.6
|
89.3
|
10
|
Kyle Korver
|
39.9
|
45.6
|
41.3
|
89.4
|
91.6
|
89.1
|
11
|
Chauncey Billups
|
40.8
|
41.0
|
38.9
|
90.8
|
89.1
|
88.9
|
12
|
Jose Calderon
|
43.2
|
46.4
|
39.5
|
87.8
|
91.0
|
88.4
|
13
|
Chris Paul
|
47.4
|
43.9
|
37.4
|
85.5
|
89.1
|
88.2
|
14
|
Luke Ridnour
|
45.6
|
46.7
|
37.6
|
86.3
|
89.9
|
88.1
|
15
|
Earl Boykins
|
44.4
|
39.3
|
37.4
|
87.4
|
87.3
|
86.3
|
16
|
Wally Szczerbiak
|
39.6
|
40.4
|
41.3
|
86.5
|
88.7
|
86.3
|
17
|
Kobe Bryant
|
47.8
|
40.5
|
34.3
|
84.3
|
85.4
|
86.2
|
18
|
Paul Pierce
|
44.4
|
40.8
|
39.2
|
83.7
|
87.8
|
85.9
|
19
|
Rashard Lewis
|
43.5
|
41.0
|
39.4
|
83.0
|
87.5
|
85.8
|
20
|
Peja Stojakovic
|
34.9
|
38.1
|
40.5
|
90.1
|
87.1
|
85.8
|
*Minimum attempts: 100 from 10-15 feet and 150 from the
other three distances
There were a few players who just missed the field goal
attempts cut-off who warrant mentioning. Steve Novak had an ACS of 96.8, but
has rarely gotten to the line and has only taken 12 shots from 10 to 15 feet. After
only a rookie year, Gary Neal had an ACS of 91.2; he should qualify with enough
attempts after another year. He also deserves to be on a short list of the most
underrated shooters in the league. JJ Redick, known more as a sharpshooter than
Neal, also should make the top twenty after another year in the league with an
ACS of 87.0. Brent Barry nearly made the cut (ACS of 90.3), but needed to shoot
more from inside the three point line.
Since I have a score for every player in the league, I have
also the ACS for the bad shooters as well. Below is a table showing the twenty
worst shooters according to this metric, and to reiterate this is among players
who qualified. Otherwise Ben Wallace, DeAndre Jordan, and Andris Biedrins would
be competing for this dubious honor. With a terrible score of 60.7, the worst
shooter is Josh Smith. He attempted to quit three pointers cold turkey, and
based on his numbers I can see why he tried. However, I will note that since it’s
three points instead of two it may be better to give up midrange shots instead,
although tactically it’s more difficult to completely abstain. Rondo is third,
but would be higher if it weren’t for his skill at those awkward shots that
sometimes fly from 10 or more feet. It’s surprising to see Spencer Hawes with
such a low score because when a seven-footer eschews the inside game for an
outside one he better have a good reason. Luckily, this year he has given up
and is rebounding and scoring near the basket more than ever.
Rank
|
Player
|
10-15 ft. %
|
16-23 ft. %
|
Three pointer %
|
Free throw %
|
Composite score
|
Adj. comp. score
|
166
|
Josh Smith
|
23.9
|
33.5
|
28.1
|
66.7
|
64.2
|
60.7
|
165
|
Trevor Ariza
|
17.9
|
32.7
|
31.8
|
66.8
|
64.8
|
62.3
|
164
|
Rajon Rondo
|
41.0
|
38.1
|
24.2
|
62.2
|
66.8
|
63.8
|
163
|
Marquis Daniels
|
41.8
|
32.6
|
22.8
|
69.2
|
66.7
|
64.1
|
162
|
Spencer Hawes
|
36.3
|
40.4
|
30.4
|
63.9
|
71.3
|
67.0
|
161
|
Corey Brewer
|
33.6
|
33.3
|
31.2
|
70.0
|
70.9
|
67.5
|
160
|
Thabo Sefolosha
|
32.1
|
37.8
|
30.5
|
71.3
|
71.8
|
67.6
|
159
|
Andre Miller
|
41.7
|
39.3
|
18.0
|
81.2
|
69.7
|
68.2
|
158
|
Thaddeus Young
|
32.4
|
35.1
|
33.8
|
71.6
|
73.6
|
69.4
|
157
|
Lamar Odom
|
35.4
|
40.1
|
32.2
|
67.9
|
73.7
|
69.7
|
156
|
Al Thornton
|
37.8
|
35.7
|
29.3
|
74.8
|
73.4
|
70.3
|
155
|
Shawn Marion
|
39.7
|
36.3
|
29.5
|
77.2
|
75.2
|
70.7
|
154
|
Devin Brown
|
27.9
|
31.9
|
33.4
|
78.1
|
73.1
|
70.7
|
153
|
Jamaal Tinsley
|
38.2
|
34.7
|
29.0
|
72.7
|
72.1
|
70.8
|
152
|
Andre Iguodala
|
28.8
|
37.8
|
31.8
|
74.4
|
72.9
|
71.0
|
151
|
Antonio Daniels
|
32.8
|
36.5
|
29.5
|
80.6
|
74.3
|
71.2
|
150
|
Zach Randolph
|
34.5
|
40.6
|
28.4
|
77.8
|
74.4
|
71.4
|
149
|
Luke Walton
|
36.6
|
35.4
|
34.2
|
72.3
|
75.6
|
71.5
|
148
|
Jeff Green
|
31.6
|
34.4
|
33.7
|
77.3
|
75.1
|
71.8
|
147
|
Rodney Carney
|
37.6
|
34.3
|
33.8
|
70.4
|
74.6
|
71.8
|
*Minimum attempts: 100 from 10-15 feet and 150 from the
other three distances
As a bonus, I’ll also list the top guys from each distance
with adjusted (assist rate and attempts per minute) and unadjusted percentages.
Nash’s shooting prowess is showcased here very well – he has four out of seven
top spots, and in only one category is he not in the top five. There are also a few
surprising names – Sean May as a marksmen with a midrange jumper, Shaun
Livingston’s skill from 10 to 15, and the forgotten Mikki Moore who lived on
two-point jumpers.
10 to 15 feet:
Player
|
Unadjusted %
|
Player
|
Adjusted %
|
Steve Nash
|
51.6
|
Steve Nash
|
61.2
|
Beno Udrih
|
51.2
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
60.3
|
Mo Williams
|
49.2
|
Beno Udrih
|
59.7
|
Anthony Morrow
|
49.0
|
Shaun Livingston
|
59.0
|
Shaun Livingston
|
47.9
|
Kobe Bryant
|
58.5
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
16 to 23 feet:
Player
|
Unadjusted %
|
Player
|
Adjusted %
|
Steve Novak
|
49.2
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
59.5
|
Sean May
|
48.7
|
Steve Nash
|
57.0
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
48.6
|
Sean May
|
56.8
|
Matt Bonner
|
48.5
|
Jose Calderon
|
56.0
|
Mikki Moore
|
48.1
|
Luke Ridnour
|
55.8
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
Three point:
Player
|
Unadjusted %
|
Player
|
Adjusted %
|
Anthony Morrow
|
44.7
|
Steve Nash
|
51.4
|
Jason Kapono
|
44.4
|
Anthony Morrow
|
50.3
|
Steve Nash
|
44.2
|
Steve Novak
|
50.2
|
Stephen Curry
|
43.9
|
Stephen Curry
|
50.1
|
Brent Barry
|
42.5
|
Gary Neal
|
49.3
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
Free throws:
Player
|
%
|
Steve Nash
|
91.7
|
Ray Allen
|
91.2
|
Stephen Curry
|
91.1
|
Chauncey Billups
|
90.8
|
Peja Stojakovic
|
90.1
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
I’m also including the top rates for field goals attempted
from the three court ranges. Marc Jackson is a surprising leader, and note this
is a former Warriors player and not the current head coach with over 10,000
career assists (he spells his name “Mark.”) In retrospect, maybe 150 was too
low a threshold for something like FGA/min, but it ultimately didn’t mess with
the rankings. The leading three point shooters per minute is an eclectic list
of players who have little in common besides their favorite shot.
10 to 15 feet:
Players
|
FGA/min
|
Elton Brand
|
0.113
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
0.112
|
Yao Ming
|
0.101
|
Jermaine O'Neal
|
0.096
|
Sam Cassell
|
0.089
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
16 to 23 feet:
Players
|
FGA/min
|
Marc Jackson
|
0.206
|
Tracy McGrady
|
0.197
|
Dirk Nowitzki
|
0.196
|
Sam Cassell
|
0.190
|
Kobe Bryant
|
0.180
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
Three point:
Players
|
FGA/min
|
Steve Novak
|
0.234
|
J.R. Smith
|
0.219
|
Juan Carlos Navarro
|
0.204
|
Damon Jones
|
0.204
|
Ryan Anderson
|
0.203
|
*Minimum attempts: 150
Conclusion
There’s no perfect way to rate a shooter, and maybe there
are problems adjusting based on how many shots are assisted and how many you
take per minute. The adjustment, however, doesn’t change the rankings too much.
Specialists who wait until they’re open are hurt a little like Kapono, and
stars who typically take more contested shots like Kobe benefit by moving up a
few spots. No matter how you slice the numbers it’s hard not to rate Nash as
the best shooter because he’s one of the top from every location and has to
lead an offense while doing so. We don’t have data for decades back so we can’t
compare him to Larry Bird or Mark Price, but it’s hard to believe anyone who
could shoot better. Steve Nash is the greatest shooter of the past five seasons, and he has a legitimate argument for greatest of all time.
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