Kobe Bryant, 40 Point Games, and Efficiency

During Kobe’s recent stretch of 40 point games, some fans have claimed Kobe is showing the rest of the league that he’s still the best player, while others have pointed to the large number of shot attempts he’s needed to amass his huge point totals. Bryant defenders will point to his decent field-goal percentage in those games, saying it’s better than the other options on the team, but I thought there was a different pattern to his 40 point games than typical ones you see.

To test my hypothesis, I gathered up data from the past three seasons plus this current one. I wanted to look at how Kobe post-30 years-old was putting up high scoring games compared to the rest of the league. Also, to factor in free throws I used true-shooting percentage (TS%) to judge the efficiency of the 40 point game. For the uninitiated, TS% is pointed divided by two times the sum of field goal attempts and free throw attempts where every free throw is counted as roughly half a field goal attempt (PTS/(2*(FGA+.44*FTA.) I think this is a good measure to judge these games without something more complicated.

There were 197 different 40 point games from the 2008-09 until now. (I didn’t include playoffs because the competition is tougher and some guys have more playoff games than others.) Surprisingly, the player with the most games over 40 points was Lebron James with 21, not the Black Mamba. Only a handful of other guys were close to Kobe’s 19 games with over 40 points – Wade and Durant are the others. In ranking the games by TS%, however, the results are more interesting.  Only two of Kobe’s 19 games are above the bottom third in shooting efficiency. I think this is better illustrated in the chart below.

One unintended find is the bell curve created by the graph. Higher scoring games are centered closer to the mean TS%, and the greatest outliers are lower scoring games. This makes sense in that with greater attempts you have less variation, but I’m not sure why the distribution is similar on both the low and high efficiency ends of the graph. The lonely yellow dot at the top is Kobe’s 61 point outburst in Madison Square Garden, and strangely enough it’s his most efficient game. Compared to the other scorers who have accumulated a similar number of games, however, Kobe has a distribution bunched on the left and less efficient side of the graph. James, Wade, and Durant have their games evenly scattered within the curve.

I could have muddied up the graph even further putting more guys in to find someone similar, but that would have been fruitless. Out of 59 different players with 40 point games, Kobe’s average TS% was fifth from last at 61.9%. The only guy below him with more than one game was Joe Johnson, and he only had two. I included the average TS% and number of games for each guy in a table below ordered both by descending TS% and alphabetical order so you can find a player easier.

Another trend is that most of the highest TS% averages are from guys who have only one or two games, and the players with the most games are at the lower end. I think this is because if you’re a secondary player the only way to score 40 is to do so as efficiently as possible, and if you’re a star then the team is more willing to let you score more. Even so, among similar high-scoring players Kobe rates at the bottom in true-shooting percentage, and tonight against Dallas if he keeps the streak alive of 40 point games it’s because he takes more shots than virtually everyone else to get there.

Here's one caveat: Kobe's games are mostly well above the league average for TS%. They're still productive games. There are two types of optimization: what's good for the group and what's good for the individual. For the group it's best for the team TS% to be as high as possible, and to optimize efficiency among players some guys most take more shots than they normally would and their TS% will suffer. I'm not sure if this is true for Kobe because when he takes a lot of shots but has poor percentages he probably won't score 40 points. I think the latter explanation is more likely rather than Kobe optimizing his shooting efficiency for the team benefit.

Sorted by TS%                                                        Sorted by name in alphabetical order

Player	TS%	# of games	Player	TS%	# of games
C.J. Miles	94.9	1	Aaron Brooks	60.9	1
Leandro Barbosa	90.1	1	Al Harrington	72.1	2
Rodrigue Beaubois	89.1	1	Amare Stoudemire	73.8	7
Mehmet Okur	84.0	1	Andre Miller	75.3	1
Luol Deng	83.9	1	Andrea Bargnani	73.3	1
Nick Young	82.8	1	Andrew Bynum	72.8	1
Eric Gordon	81.5	1	Ben Gordon	81.1	1
Ben Gordon	81.1	1	Blake Griffin	72.3	2
Ramon Sessions	80.8	1	Brandon Jennings	73.3	1
Mo Williams	80.6	2	Brandon Roy	73.3	4
Marcus Thornton	80.3	1	C.J. Miles	94.9	1
Stephen Jackson	80.1	1	C.J. Watson	75.4	1
Luis Scola	79.6	1	Carmelo Anthony	67.0	11
J.R. Smith	79.1	3	Chris Bosh	69.2	4
Shaquille O'Neal	78.9	1	Chris Paul	68.8	2
Nate Robinson	78.0	2	Danny Granger	68.2	4
Kevin Martin	77.3	5	David West	68.8	4
O.J. Mayo	77.3	1	Deron Williams	75.4	1
Michael Redd	76.8	1	Derrick Rose	62.8	2
Kevin Love	76.0	1	Devin Harris	73.2	3
Deron Williams	75.4	1	Dirk Nowitzki	64.1	8
C.J. Watson	75.4	1	Dwight Howard	70.0	4
Andre Miller	75.3	1	Dwyane Wade	65.2	21
Vince Carter	75.2	2	Eric Gordon	81.5	1
Paul Millsap	74.0	1	Gerald Wallace	62.6	1
Amare Stoudemire	73.8	7	Gilbert Arenas	70.2	1
Andrea Bargnani	73.3	1	J.R. Smith	79.1	3
Brandon Jennings	73.3	1	Jamal Crawford	71.5	2
Brandon Roy	73.3	4	Joe Johnson	60.1	2
Devin Harris	73.2	3	Kevin Durant	71.4	16
LaMarcus Aldridge	73.1	2	Kevin Love	76.0	1
Andrew Bynum	72.8	1	Kevin Martin	77.3	5
Blake Griffin	72.3	2	Kobe Bryant	61.9	19
Al Harrington	72.1	2	LaMarcus Aldridge	73.1	2
Jamal Crawford	71.5	2	Leandro Barbosa	90.1	1
Kevin Durant	71.4	16	LeBron James	69.1	22
Tony Parker	71.3	2	Luis Scola	79.6	1
Gilbert Arenas	70.2	1	Luol Deng	83.9	1
Dwight Howard	70.0	4	Manu Ginobili	66.2	1
Monta Ellis	69.5	8	Marcus Thornton	80.3	1
Stephen Curry	69.4	1	Mehmet Okur	84.0	1
Rodney Stuckey	69.3	1	Michael Beasley	59.3	1
Chris Bosh	69.2	4	Michael Redd	76.8	1
LeBron James	69.1	22	Mo Williams	80.6	2
David West	68.8	4	Monta Ellis	69.5	8
Chris Paul	68.8	2	Nate Robinson	78.0	2
Danny Granger	68.2	4	Nick Young	82.8	1
Russell Westbrook	67.4	1	O.J. Mayo	77.3	1
Carmelo Anthony	67.0	11	Paul Millsap	74.0	1
Manu Ginobili	66.2	1	Ramon Sessions	80.8	1
Dwyane Wade	65.2	21	Rodney Stuckey	69.3	1
Dirk Nowitzki	64.1	8	Rodrigue Beaubois	89.1	1
Derrick Rose	62.8	2	Rudy Gay	61.6	1
Gerald Wallace	62.6	1	Russell Westbrook	67.4	1
Kobe Bryant	61.9	19	Shaquille O'Neal	78.9	1
Rudy Gay	61.6	1	Stephen Curry	69.4	1
Aaron Brooks	60.9	1	Stephen Jackson	80.1	1
Joe Johnson	60.1	2	Tony Parker	71.3	2
Michael Beasley	59.3	1	Vince Carter	75.2	2