Kobe Bryant's Start: A Resurgence or a Fluke?

The season has only been 13 games long so far, but already Kobe Bryant is drawing raves for sitting on top of the points per game leaderboard and putting up a run of 40 point games. Some have pointed to his advanced medical procedures in Germany, his off-season work ethic, his competitive drive to win, or his divorce motivating him. I think, however, it's a short-term fluke and won't last the season.

Coming into the shortened season there were plans for Kobe to take more of a facilitator role, setting up big guys Bynum and Gasol, because recent injuries and age have caught up to him. Instead he has a career high in usage rate, meaning he's shooting more per possession than ever, and since he has the record for single season usage rate he's on a record pace. He's shooting more per possession than Jordan, Iverson, LeBron James -- everyone. However, his shooting efficiency is low despite his 40 point games. Taking into account for threes and free throws, his True Shooting % is 54.5, which is one of the lowest marks he's ever had and not too far above league average. It's easy to see why -- he's taking tougher shots, more jumpers, and he's getting to the rim less.

One website tracks field goals from five different locations on the floor: rim, 3 to 9 feet, 10 to 15, 16 to 23 and three pointers. The data only goes back to the 2006-07 season, but a pattern emerges when you look at his shots. He used to take 5.1 attempts at the rim per game, and now he's down to 3.5 despite only three less minutes per game. He is shooting as much as ever, and now his shots are distributed from further distances. One number that stands out is that he's taking 9.1 long jumpers (16 to 23 feet) and making 51%, which is a number that few players sustain over a large number of attempts. The five years before he was between 38 and 42%, indicating that it's definitely a statistical aberration. Since he's taking nine a game, it's a significant trend, and if he was only making 40% of those shots this year he'd lose a point off his average.

Table: Kobe Bryant's shot chart

		Rim			3 to 9 ft			10 to 15 ft			16 to 23 ft			Threes
Year	Min	M	A	FG%	M	A	FG%	M	A	FG%	M	A	FG%	M	A	eFG%
2007	40.8	3.3	5.1	64	0.7	1.5	47	1.2	2.5	48	3.6	8.4	42	1.8	5.2	51.6
2008	38.9	3.2	5.1	63	0.8	1.5	55	0.9	2.1	44	2.5	6.6	38	1.8	5.1	54.2
2009	36.2	2.9	4.4	66	1	2.2	47	1.4	3.2	45	2.9	7	42	1.4	4.1	52.7
2010	38.8	2.8	4.9	58.6	1.1	2.3	46.2	2	4	49.7	2.5	6	41	1.4	4.1	49.4
2011	33.9	2.3	3.5	65.3	1.5	3.1	48	1.6	3.2	51.5	2.2	5.9	38	1.4	4.3	48.5
2012	37.2	2.2	3.2	66.7	1.5	3.7	39.6	2.1	4.3	48.2	4.7	9.2	51	1.1	4.5	36.2

*M=Made field goal, A=Attempted field goal, per game averages


Sometimes statistical flukes are balanced by opposite and equal effects. In this case it's his three pointers -- there's no way he'll continue to shoot that poorly (24%.) With a percentage near his career average he'd gain back roughly another point. He's also below his career trend from the 3 to 9 foot range. In looking at the numbers closely you can see that Kobe is exceeding with volume and not value. Ardent Lakers fans will disagree because for them nothing Kobe ever does on the court is short of spectacular, but at 33 years old Kobe's relying on his jump shot, which compared to the best shooters in the game isn't a lethal weapon. What's amazing, however, is the number of shots he's attempting, and he's able to hit a respectable percentage. There's little chance he'll be able to keep up this pace simply because no one else has done it, and the closest season was Kobe's 35 points per game with no supporting help. He's also not likely to increase his efficiency and thus score more points with the same attempts because he's taking fewer shots inside and more difficult jumpers.

Tonight against the LA Clippers look for Kobe to take over the game by not passing and taking impossible fadeaway shots 18 feet from the basket. He'll miss a few, but the ones that go in will be in the highlight reel. Without an accurate jump shot like Dirk's or the athleticism granted to the young, Kobe's only hope at overpowering NBA headlines is to shoot more than anyone else has. This isn't an individual fighting valiantly against father time; it's an aging player hurt by a divorce selfishly gunning for his own stats. Basketball is a team game, not a showcase of someone who is already fortunate.

The ebbs and flows of the season, the streaks and slumps, are cause for weird effects at the beginning of the year when not enough games have been played. He could have a good game against the Clippers, or he may not, but at the season's end someone else will be sitting atop the points leaderboard. To Kobe this should not matter.